Rapeseed remains the strongest crop in the region, Turkey is returning as an active buyer, and the arrival of Ukrainian corn and oilseeds is gradually increasing competitive pressure across the western Black Sea basin.
The Black Sea grain market enters September with firm physical prices but also with a rapidly changing supply balance. Constanța is maintaining strong prices for wheat and rapeseed, Turkey is once again showing interest in regional oilseed supplies, while Ukraine is moving into the corn, sunflower and soybean harvest and gradually adding new volumes to the regional market.
Constanța Remains the Main Price Benchmark in the Western Black Sea
Physical prices in Constanța remain steady to higher. Milling wheat reaches €233/tonne, feed wheat €212/tonne, corn €232/tonne, feed barley €222/tonne, sunflower €528/tonne, and rapeseed €535/tonne.
At the beginning of the week, milling wheat gained €3 compared with Friday, feed wheat added €2, and feed barley also rose by €3. Corn and sunflower remained virtually unchanged, while rapeseed recorded another €4 increase.
This points to relatively stable physical demand despite a more volatile picture in futures markets.
Rapeseed Remains the Strongest Position in the Regional Market
The oilseed continues to stand out with considerably stronger price momentum. The November Euronext contract reaches €558/tonne, while the Constanța price remains at €535/tonne.
Additional support comes from European demand. EU rapeseed imports are approximately 10% above the level from the same period of the previous season, indicating a greater need for external supply and creating a favorable environment for producers and exporters from the Black Sea region.
Turkey Turns Back to Romanian Rapeseed
An important shift in regional flows is Turkey’s return as a buyer of Romanian rapeseed. Turkish demand had previously been concentrated mainly on Ukrainian supplies, while renewed interest in Constanța suggests greater diversification of sourcing.
For the entire western Black Sea basin, this is a positive signal because stronger Turkish demand creates additional competition for regional supplies and could potentially support higher physical prices.
Wheat Remains Highly Dependent on Geopolitics
European wheat remains sensitive to every change in political expectations surrounding the war in Ukraine. Following reports of a conversation between the US and Russian presidents and the possibility of a diplomatic solution, the December Euronext contract fell to €247.25/tonne.
The logic is clear: any credible prospect of trade normalization could bring larger volumes of Russian and Ukrainian grain back to the international market. The risk of restored export flows therefore acts as potential downward pressure on prices, while ongoing logistical restrictions continue to support the premium.
Ukraine Begins the Corn Harvest
The most important new factor on the physical supply side is the start of Ukraine’s corn harvest. As of September 8, 43.2 thousand tonnes had been harvested from 12.1 thousand hectares at an average yield of 359 kg/decare.
Ukraine’s total grain and pulse harvest has already reached 32.2 million tonnes, after 6.85 million hectares, or 59% of the forecast area, had been harvested. The arrival of new-crop corn will gradually increase available regional supply and become an increasingly important factor in price competition during the autumn.
Ukraine’s Wheat Harvest Is Practically Complete
The wheat harvest is now complete on 98% of the planned area, with 24.91 million tonnes collected from 5.04 million hectares at an average yield of 494 kg/decare.
The barley campaign is fully complete, with production of 6.4 million tonnes and an average yield of 434 kg/decare. The entire rapeseed crop has also been harvested, with production reaching 3.8286 million tonnes.
For these early crops, the focus is therefore shifting from the size of the harvest to Ukraine’s ability to market it through maritime, river and land routes.
Ukrainian Sunflower Enters the Regional Balance
The sunflower harvest is still at an early stage. 56 thousand hectares have been harvested, around 1% of the forecast area, producing 89.3 thousand tonnes at an average yield of 159 kg/decare.
Although volumes remain small for now, an acceleration of the campaign will gradually increase the supply of oilseeds in the Black Sea region. This is particularly important for markets such as Romania and Bulgaria, where Ukrainian sunflower directly competes for demand from processors.
Ukraine Also Begins the Soybean Harvest
For soybeans, 79.9 thousand tonnes have been harvested from 45.3 thousand hectares, or around 3% of the expected area, at an average yield of 176 kg/decare.
The development of Ukraine’s oilseed harvest will become increasingly important for the regional balance in the coming weeks, particularly as strong European demand for vegetable oils and protein feed ingredients continues.
Road Exports Offset Part of the Logistics Constraints
Ukraine continues to make increasingly active use of overland routes. In August, 325 thousand tonnes of agricultural products were exported by road, 12.4% more than in July and 23.7% more year over year.
The Polish border remains the main route, handling 150.1 thousand tonnes, or 46.2% of total road-based agricultural exports. This highlights the importance of European land corridors when maritime logistics are constrained.
Border Capacity Remains a Serious Constraint
The increase in road exports does not mean that the logistics problem has been solved. During the first three days of September, Ukraine exported around 11 thousand tonnes per day, but at the end of the previous week more than 5 thousand heavy trucks were waiting to cross into Poland.
This means that alternative routes can absorb part of the production, but not without significant delays and additional logistics costs. For the Black Sea market, transport efficiency remains almost as important as the size of the crop itself.
A Strong US Corn Crop Limits the Region’s Upside Potential
Against the backdrop of regional uncertainty, global corn supply provides a counterweight. StoneX lowered its forecast for the average US yield to 11.47 tonnes/ha, but raised expected production to 411.6 million tonnes because of larger planted acreage.
A large US crop could limit the upside potential for Black Sea corn even with weaker European yields and regional logistics restrictions. This helps explain why prices in Constanța can remain firm without necessarily moving into a prolonged sharp rally.
Weaker European Wheat Output Increases the Importance of the Black Sea Region
France, the largest wheat producer in the EU, is expected to produce 31.9 million tonnes of soft wheat in 2026, 4% below last year and significantly below the approximately 41 million tonnes produced in 2015.
If the long-term decline in European production continues, the importance of Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine and other Black Sea producers for supplying Europe and international markets could increase. At the same time, greater dependence on the region would also mean higher sensitivity to logistics, war and weather.
The Black Sea Market Remains Balanced Between Firm Prices and Growing New-Crop Supply
At the beginning of September, the regional picture remains relatively supportive for physical prices. Constanța continues to show resilience, rapeseed remains strong, and Turkey’s return as an active buyer creates additional demand.
At the same time, the most important autumn shift is beginning — the gradual arrival of new Ukrainian corn, sunflower and soybeans. The faster these volumes reach the market, the stronger the competition between Ukrainian, Romanian and other Black Sea origins will become.
The key question for the coming weeks therefore will not simply be how large the crops are, but how much of them can be efficiently transported and exported. It is precisely the combination of logistics capacity, Turkish and European demand, Ukrainian supply and competitive prices from the rest of the world that will determine the direction of the Black Sea grain market during the autumn.