Wheat extends its August advance on renewed Black Sea supply concerns, while tightening US corn expectations and Chinese soybean demand keep most of the grain complex firm despite weaker energy markets.

Grain futures start Wednesday, 26 August, mostly higher, with wheat and corn leading the advance while soybean oil remains the notable exception. Black Sea export disruption is adding support to wheat, speculative buying and tighter US supply expectations are lifting corn, and soybeans are benefiting from Chinese demand even as lower crude oil and uncertainty over US biofuel exemptions continue to pressure vegetable oils.

Black Sea Logistics Keep Wheat Risk Premium Elevated

Wheat remains supported by concern over export capacity in the Black Sea. Repairs to damaged grain infrastructure at Russia’s Novorossiysk port could take one to four months, potentially restricting near-term export flows, while a pause in Russia’s grain export duty is also under consideration. Russian grain exports are now expected at just over 2 MMT, down 20% from the estimate made two weeks earlier, reinforcing the supportive supply tone for wheat.

Weak EU Wheat Exports Meet Fresh Import Demand

European wheat flows remain relatively subdued, with EU soft wheat exports through August 23 totaling 2.38 MMT, down 33% year over year. At the same time, Tunisia is seeking 125,000 MT of milling wheat for shipment between September and November, providing a fresh demand opportunity for competitive origins. Slower EU exports cap part of the bullish supply narrative, but active import demand provides underlying support to the global wheat market.

Corn Buying Accelerates as US Supply Concerns Persist

Corn continues to attract strong speculative demand as the market increasingly prices the possibility of lower US production alongside solid demand. Managed-money length is estimated near 338,000 contracts after five consecutive sessions of aggressive speculative buying. The expanding long position adds momentum to the rally, although it also increases the risk of sharper corrections if fundamental support weakens.

Ethanol Demand Adds Support to Corn

Energy-sector demand remains another supportive element for corn, with Wednesday’s EIA report expected to show ethanol production rising to 321 million gallons last week from 320 million gallons previously. Stronger ethanol output would reinforce domestic corn usage at a time when the market is already focusing on potentially tighter US supplies. That combination keeps the near-term bias supportive, particularly for nearby contracts.

South American Acreage Signals More Corn Competition Ahead

Longer-term supply expectations in South America remain more comfortable. Brazilian corn area for 2026/27 is forecast to rise 3% to 23.3 million hectares, while Argentine corn area is expected to remain unchanged at 8.4 million hectares. Brazilian fertilizer imports and domestic production, however, are forecast to fall 7.5% to 45.3 MMT, creating a potential input-side constraint as acreage expands.

Chinese Demand Strengthens the Soybean Outlook

Soybeans are supported by improving Chinese demand and competitive US export values. China’s Sinograin sold nearly 223,000 MT, or 77% of the soybeans offered from state reserves, helping clear storage capacity ahead of incoming US supplies. US Gulf FOB soybean offers remain $0.30–$0.35/bu below Brazilian offers, strengthening the competitive position of US origin and leaving less room for US yields to disappoint against the current production outlook.

Soybean Oil Remains the Weak Link

Soybean oil continues to diverge from the broader grain complex as weaker energy prices and uncertainty over refinery exemptions weigh on biofuel economics. The EPA is expected to rule on 34 small-refinery exemption requests, with potential relief estimated at as much as 1.8 billion, well above previous expectations of 1.2–1.3 billion. Crush margins have meanwhile fallen another $0.06 1/2/bu to $2.13/bu, their lowest level in six months, limiting the support that stronger soybean and meal prices can provide to the overall complex.

Lower Energy and a Firmer Dollar Temper the Bullish Tone

Macro conditions provide a counterweight to the strength in grains. Spot WTI crude is down $1.80/barrel at $80.50, RBOB gasoline is down $0.01/gal and heating oil is down $0.12, while the US dollar is moderately stronger ahead of the July PCE inflation report. Weather remains mixed: rainfall is expected to favor the Gulf Coast and Southeast, potentially slowing early corn harvest, while much of the Midwest sees only scattered precipitation before above-normal temperatures build this weekend and persist into the first week of September.

Wheat Futures

Wheat is opening Wednesday firmly higher. Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is up $0.14 at $7.17/bu, Dec ’26 KC wheat is up $0.14 1/2 at $7.85 1/4/bu, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is up $0.09 at $7.29/bu. Chicago and Kansas City have both reached new monthly highs as concerns over prolonged repairs at Novorossiysk and weaker Russian export expectations reinforce the Black Sea risk premium.

Corn Futures

Corn is also starting higher, with Sep ’26 corn up $0.06 at $5.06 1/2/bu and Dec ’26 up $0.05 at $5.28 1/2/bu. December has reached a new contract high, while September is approaching its contract high of $5.11 1/4/bu. Strong speculative buying, expectations for tighter US production and continued ethanol demand are maintaining the upward bias, although the increasingly large managed-money long position raises the market’s sensitivity to profit-taking.

Soybean Futures

Soybeans begin Wednesday higher, with Sep ’26 soybeans up $0.04 1/2 at $12.32 1/2/bu and Nov ’26 up $0.04 1/2 at $12.42 1/4/bu, both trading at new weekly highs. Sep ’26 soybean meal is up $4.00 at $324.30, its highest level in a month, while Sep ’26 soybean oil is down 95 points at 66.57. Chinese demand and competitive US Gulf offers are supporting beans and meal, but weaker energy prices, refinery-exemption uncertainty and six-month-low crush margins continue to restrain soybean oil.