Crude oil craters over $5 after President Trump called off planned attacks on Iran, while a confirmed weekend purchase of 14 to 16 cargoes of US soybeans by China helps the entire grain complex claw back from three-week lows to open the new month.

Grains open the new month mixed to lower before rallying back through the morning, with wheat, corn, and soybeans all shrugging off weaker overnight levels as fresh Chinese demand and a wave of month-end fund buying offset a sharp drop in energy prices.

Trump Cancels Planned Iran Strikes, Crude Oil Craters

Lower trade across most of the ag space kicked off the new month after President Trump cancelled planned attacks on Iran on Sunday, with peace talks expected to resume Monday. Spot WTI Sept '26 crude oil is down $5.25 per barrel at $79.43, while RBOB is off $0.11 per gallon and challenging the $3 level, and heating oil is down $0.12. The US dollar plunged to a two-month low overnight before recovering to slightly lower levels, while US stock indices are trading higher.

China Confirms a Massive Weekend Soybean Purchase

Reports over the weekend suggested China purchased 14 to 16 cargoes of US soybeans on Friday, and USDA confirmed a bulk of that this morning, with 488,000 MT reported sold to China for 2026/27 and another 136,150 MT to unknown destinations. Cash sources suggest China purchased over 800,000 MT of US soybeans on Friday's price weakness for October/November shipment, with the business split between the Pacific Northwest and the US Gulf, a demand signal that is helping soybeans recover from Friday's five-month-low crush margins.

Weekend Rains Cover the Corn Belt, Cooler Temperatures Set to Persist

As expected, healthy rains moved across much of the central and eastern Corn Belt over the weekend, with the heaviest totals in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, while temperatures held at normal-to-below-normal readings for the vast majority of corn and soybean acres; triple-digit heat was limited to the southern and northwestern Plains. Rainfall over the next week will again favor Iowa and the Great Lakes region, with limited rain for the southern Midwest and Plains states, while cooler temperatures are expected across the Northern Plains and Western Corn Belt for the next three to four days before returning to above-normal readings by the end of the week. Central Brazil remains hot and dry while conditions are cooler in the south and across much of Argentina, with rain expected for eastern Argentina and southern Brazil; Europe remains hot with only scattered rain in the east.

Wheat Firms as Russia Claims New Black Sea Vessel Strikes

Russia claims to have struck at least four vessels in the Black Sea near Ukrainian ports overnight, while Russia's Grain Lobby is warning that a complete disruption to Black Sea exports is at risk if the attacks continue; should that occur, wheat shipments out of the region could slip to just 30 to 35 MMT, well below the USDA's current estimate of 47.5 MMT. The weekly Export Inspections report showed wheat shipments of just 335,313 MT for the week of July 30, a 19.68% drop from the week prior and less than half of the same week last year, led by South Korea at 90,198 MT, Thailand at 68,166 MT, and the Philippines at 57,815 MT, leaving marketing-year shipments at 2.907 MMT, 27.36% below the same period last year.

Fund Positioning Turns Sharply Bullish Across Wheat and Corn

Weekly Commitment of Traders data showed managed money slashing its CBOT wheat net short by another 12,469 contracts in the week ending July 28, bringing it down to just 6,880 contracts, while KC wheat funds added 3,289 contracts to their net long, now at 33,233. In corn, managed money added a substantial 75,490 contracts to its net long, pushing the position to 168,399 contracts, before easing back to roughly 127,000 contracts more recently, while soybean funds added 30,101 contracts to reach a 155,001-contract net long.

Fresh Wheat Demand Emerges Even as Export Pace Lags

A South Korean mill has issued a tender to buy 50,000 MT of US wheat, with a Tuesday deadline, offering a fresh demand data point even as the broader export pace continues to lag well behind last year's levels.

Corn Export Pace Continues to Outrun Last Year

Monday morning's Export Inspections report showed corn shipments of 1.885 MMT for the week of July 30, up 22.92% from the week prior and 45.44% above the same week last year, led by Mexico at 490,997 MT, South Korea at 351,654 MT, and Colombia at 271,599 MT; marketing-year exports now total 77.27 MMT, running 25.35% ahead of the same period last year with just a month left in the marketing year. AgRural estimates Brazil's second corn crop at 69% harvested in the center-south region, pegging the second crop at 110.5 MMT and the total crop at 142.8 MMT for 2025/26, while StoneX raised its second-crop estimate by 3.2 MMT to 110.7 MMT, with a total crop of 141.5 MMT.

Legislative and Seasonal Notes Add Context for Corn

The Senate Agriculture Committee's proposed farm bill includes provisions to allow the year-round sale of E-15, though debate continues to center on exemptions for small refineries. Despite last week's weakness, Dec '26 corn closed the month of July up $0.28 per bushel, its best performance for the month since 2012, a notable seasonal data point even as December corn has closed higher in the month of July in only 3 of the past 10 years.

Soybean Export Data and June Crush Report Loom

USDA's FGIS tallied soybean export shipments at 343,941 MT for the week ending July 30, down 6% from the week prior and 45.3% below the same week last year, led by Indonesia at 78,702 MT, Mexico at 74,245 MT, and Germany at 58,129 MT, leaving 2025/26 marketing-year exports at 39.35 MMT, 17.8% below the same period last year. There were 50 deliveries issued against August soybeans Friday night, all by the Bunge house account, along with 627 deliveries against August soybean oil. June crush data is due out this afternoon, with traders looking for 218.3 million bushels crushed, within a range of 216.5 to 219.3 million bushels, and bean oil stocks seen at 2.025 billion pounds; StoneX also raised its Brazilian soybean production forecast to 183.1 MMT, 0.5 MMT above its previous figure.

Record Biodiesel Output Underpins Soybean Oil Demand

Friday's EIA data showed combined US biodiesel and renewable diesel production in May reached a record high of 497 million gallons, with bean oil usage for green diesel production surging to a record 1.434 billion pounds, up 17% from the previous month and 40% from May of last year; usage will need to average 1.445 billion pounds per month from June through September to reach the USDA's forecast of 14.550 billion pounds. Crush margins are little changed at $2.54 1/2 per bushel after falling to a five-month low on Friday.

Wheat: Rallying Off a Flat Open on Fresh Black Sea Risk

CGO Sept '26 opened the session steady at $6.39 1/4, KC Sept '26 opened $0.01 lower at $7.06 1/2, and MIAX Sept '26 opened $0.01 3/4 lower at $6.88, before the complex rallied through the morning, with Chicago SRW now trading 12 to 13 cents higher and KC HRW up 11 to 12 cents at midday, leaving CBOT Sept '26 wheat at $6.51 3/4, up 12 1/2 cents. Russia's claimed strikes on four vessels in the Black Sea and warnings of a potential complete export disruption are driving the rally, with managed money's sharply reduced net short position in CBOT wheat leaving the market vulnerable to further short covering on additional bullish headlines.

Corn: Shrugging Off Three-Week Lows to Rally on Strong Exports

Sept '26 and Dec '26 corn opened $0.02 1/4 lower at $4.38 1/2 and $4.61 3/4, respectively, both falling to three-week lows overnight, before rallying through the session on the back of Monday's strong Export Inspections data, with Sept '26 now trading at $4.48 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents. A 75,490-contract week of managed-money buying and export commitments running 25.35% ahead of last year are helping corn shake off the early weakness tied to falling energy prices and healthy Corn Belt rainfall.

Soybeans: September Contract Firms as China's Purchase Confirms

Sept '26 and Nov '26 soybeans opened $0.05 1/4 lower at $11.65 1/2 and $11.82 1/4, both slipping to three-to-four-week lows, with Sept '26 meal down $2.10 at $312.80 while oil traded 20 points higher at 67.46; the outgoing Aug '26 contract, now working through delivery, was more recently trading at $11.73 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents, with products pushing higher into midday. USDA's confirmation of nearly 625,000 MT in fresh Chinese and unknown-destination soybean sales this morning is providing the clearest source of support, even as the market awaits this afternoon's June crush data and continues to work through the fallout from Friday's five-month-low crush margins.