Wheat is giving back Thursday's Black Sea-driven gains and then some as month-end money flows out of the complex, while corn slides on healthy Midwest rainfall and soybeans weaken under pressure from a sharp soybean oil selloff even after a fresh flash sale.

Grains trade broadly lower Friday, with wheat down 21 to 28 cents across all three classes, corn off 6 to 8 cents on rain and spillover pressure, and soybeans down 6 to 9 1/2 cents as soybean oil leads losses across the complex into month-end.

Wheat Unwinds Thursday's Gains as Month-End Money Exits

The wheat complex is giving back Thursday's advance and then some, with losses across all three exchanges as money comes out of the market at the end of the month. Chicago SRW contracts are falling 27 to 28 cents across the front months, KC HRW futures are down 26 to 27 cents at midday, and MPLS spring wheat is off 23 to 24 cents. Thursday's session had already shown cracks beneath the Black Sea-driven strength, with CGO Sept '26 closing down $0.24 1/4 at $6.39 1/4, KC Sept '26 off $0.23 1/4 at $7.07 1/2, and MIAX Sept '26 down $0.21 3/4 at $6.89 3/4, even as Ukrainian drones had struck a major Russian grain export terminal at Taman near the Kerch Strait, causing what was described as significant damage.

Wheat Export Sales Continue to Lag the Historical Pace

Export Sales data shows total wheat sales for 2026/27 at 6.979 MMT, just 33% of the USDA's current export estimate and lagging the 39% average sales pace for this point in the season. US wheat export commitments are running down 25% year-over-year, versus the USDA's forecast of a 15% decline, a shortfall that continues to weigh on the market's demand narrative even as supply-side Black Sea risk stays elevated.

Black Sea Logistics Remain Strained but Buyers Have Not Chased Alternatives

Logistical problems securing agricultural products from the Black Sea region remain unsolved, though global buyers have not yet meaningfully chased alternative sources so far. Ukraine is reviewing other export options, while reports indicate a small movement of Russian grain toward the Middle East from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. With both sides continuing to target grain storage, infrastructure, and vessels, market volatility is expected to stay elevated even as Friday's price action moves lower on profit-taking.

French Harvest Wraps Up as Ukraine Raises Its Wheat and Corn Forecasts

The French soft wheat crop was rated 65% good-to-excellent as of July 27 according to FranceAgriMer, with the harvest now listed as complete. Ukraine's Grain Association raised its 2026 wheat production forecast to 23.7 MMT, up 5.3% year-over-year and in line with the USDA's estimate of 24 MMT, while also lifting its 2026 corn production forecast to 32.1 MMT, up 3.2% year-over-year and well above the USDA's 30 MMT estimate — both upward revisions that add a layer of supply-side context even as prices trade lower on the day.

Corn Slides on Healthy Rain and Wheat Spillover

Corn futures are falling alongside the rest of the grain complex Friday, with contracts down 6 to 8 cents at midday as spillover pressure from wheat, healthy rainfall, and month-end selling all weigh on the market. Rain fell across parts of Nebraska, the Dakotas, and Minnesota overnight, with the next seven days looking for 1 to 2 inches across much of Missouri, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, mainly over the next day or so. Thursday's session had already reflected this shift, with prices $0.04 to $0.05 lower as both Sept '26 and Dec '26 fell to fresh two-week lows on the spread of healthy rains across the central and northern Midwest.

Corn Export Pace Continues to Outrun the USDA's Forecast

Export Sales data shows old-crop corn sales at 86.975 MMT, 103% of the USDA's projection and ahead of the pace of the last several years, with accumulated shipments of 76.373 MMT representing 90% of the USDA's export projection; new-crop corn sales are now just 0.1% above the same period last year at 8.624 MMT. Old-crop export commitments are running 24% above year-ago levels against the USDA's forecast for 16% growth, suggesting the USDA may raise its old-crop export forecast by another 25 to 50 million bushels in the August WASDE report. Argentina's BAGE held its production forecast unchanged at 64 MMT, above the USDA's 63 MMT estimate, though harvest progress advanced just 3 points over the past week to 70% complete.

December Corn Posts Its Best July Since 2012 Despite This Week's Pullback

A new farm bill is expected to include legislation allowing the voluntary year-round sale of E-15, according to Senator John Boozman, chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee. Despite this week's weakness, Dec '26 corn closed the month of July up $0.28 per bushel, its best July performance since 2012, even though December corn has closed higher in July in only 3 of the past 10 years; a favorable US weather outlook is expected to limit upside for now, with support anticipated above $4.50 on Dec '26.

Soybeans Weaken as Soybean Oil Leads Losses Into Month-End

Soybeans are trading with midday losses of 6 to 9 1/2 cents Friday, with soymeal futures down $4.00 to $4.50 across most contracts and soybean oil off 120 to 140 points. No deliveries were issued against August soybeans or soybean oil on first notice day, while 783 deliveries were issued against August soybean meal. Thursday's session had already turned lower across the complex, led by soybean oil, with beans down $0.01 to $0.05, meal down $1 to $2, and oil ranging 20 to 120 points lower on heavier-than-expected deliveries; both Aug '26 and Nov '26 beans traded to three-to-four-week lows, Aug '26 meal fell to a four-week low, and key support for Aug '26 oil now rests at the July low of 65.59.

Fresh China-Linked Flash Sale and Crush Margins at a Five-Month Low

USDA reported a private export sale of 252,000 MT of 2026/27 soybeans to unknown destinations this morning, a sale that had initially provided support during Thursday's session before other pressures took hold. Crush margins fell another $0.12 1/2 to $2.53 1/2 per bushel Thursday, a fresh five-month low, with bean oil product value now below 52%. Census crush data due out Monday is expected to show 218 million bushels processed in June, up from 197 million in June of last year, while bean oil stocks are expected to reach 2.113 billion pounds, up from 1.894 billion a year ago.

Sinograin's Auction Pace and Record Biodiesel Demand Shape the Demand Outlook

China's state-owned Sinograin sold 249,000 MT of the 501,000 MT of imported soybeans offered at Friday's auction, and after selling roughly half of the soybeans offered, the firm announced plans to auction off another 501,000 MT next Wednesday to continue freeing up storage space for incoming US beans. On the demand side, combined US biodiesel and renewable diesel production hit a new record high of 497 million gallons in May, with bean oil usage for green diesel production surging to a record 1.434 billion pounds, up 17% from the previous month and 40% from May of last year; usage over the first eight months of the 25/26 marketing year has reached 8.772 billion pounds, up 16.8% year-over-year but still trailing the USDA's forecast of 24% growth, meaning usage will need to average 1.445 billion pounds per month from June through September to hit the USDA's 14.550 billion pound forecast.

Wheat: Sharp Reversal as Sept '26 Falls to $6.36

Sep '26 CBOT wheat is trading at $6.36, down 27 1/2 cents, extending Thursday's close of $6.39 1/4 for CGO Sept '26, itself down $0.24 1/4 on the session with next support seen at the 100-day moving average of $6.31 1/4. KC Sept '26 closed Thursday at $7.07 1/2, down $0.23 1/4, with support near its 50-day moving average of $7.03 1/2, while MIAX Sept '26 settled at $6.89 3/4, down $0.21 3/4, with next support between $6.76 and $6.79. Month-end profit-taking is overwhelming the Black Sea supply risk that drove Thursday's rally, though continued strikes on grain infrastructure from both sides should keep volatility elevated.

Corn: Sept '26 Slides to $4.38 3/4 on Rain and Spillover

Sep '26 corn is trading at $4.38 3/4, down 7 cents, with the CmdtyView national average cash corn price down 8 1/4 cents at $4.08 1/4. The move extends Thursday's session, which saw prices $0.04 to $0.05 lower as both Sept '26 and Dec '26 fell to fresh two-week lows on widespread rain across the central and northern Midwest. Strong export sales data running well ahead of the USDA's pace is providing some underlying support, but favorable weather and wheat's sharp reversal are keeping corn on the defensive into the session.

Soybeans: Aug '26 Falls to $11.68 as Oil Weakness Persists

Aug '26 soybeans are trading at $11.68, down 9 1/4 cents, even as the CmdtyView national average cash bean price is up 8 1/2 cents at $11.40. The session follows Thursday's close, which saw beans, meal, and oil all turn lower, with Aug '26 beans falling to a three-to-four-week low and crush margins dropping to a fresh five-month low of $2.53 1/2 per bushel. This morning's fresh 252,000 MT flash sale and continued strong new-crop export commitments, now at a four-year high and up 146.1% year-over-year, are offering some support, but heavy pressure in soybean oil continues to weigh on the complex into the close of the month.