From the beginning of 2025, Russia will introduce a 5% export tax on major legume crops – peas, chickpeas, and lentils.
During the period January–November, Russia's production of unrefined vegetable oils reached 9.477 million tons (-10.9% compared to the previous year). Production of unrefined sunseed oil was 7.284 million tons (+18.2%), soyoil production reached 1.014 million tons (+14%), and rapeseed oil was 1.125 million tons (-17.3%).
From July 1 to December 21, 2024, Ukraine's grain exports amounted to 21.256 million tons (17.484 million tons in the same period the previous year), including 2.882 million tons in December (4.387 million tons last year). December exports significantly lagged behind those of December 2023, with the gap gradually widening rather than narrowing. Ukraine exported 9.613 million tons of wheat (7.255), 1.968 million tons of barley (0.991), and 9.351 million tons of corn (9.097). According to Ukraine's Ministry of Agrarian Policy, the country's grain export potential for 2024/25 is projected at 46.9 million tons (55.6 million tons the previous year), including 16.2 million tons of wheat (18.3), 2.9 million tons of barley (2.5), and 20.5 million tons of corn (29.2). By the end of the season, 25.64 million tons of grain remain for export (38.12 the previous year), including 6.587 million tons of wheat (11.05), 0.93 million tons of barley (1.51), and 11.5 million tons of corn (20.1). This represents a shortfall of 12.48 million tons, including 4 million tons of wheat, 0.5 million tons of barley, and 8 million tons of corn.
During the week, the price of sunseed in Ukraine decreased by 3–7 USD/ton to 565–595 USD/ton, as the price of sunseed oil dropped to 1,050–1,070 USD/ton with January delivery at Black Sea ports. Processors reduced prices, while farmers halted sales. According to Trading Economics, the average price of sunseed oil for global delivery fell by 0.5% over the week and 4.2% over the month, to 1,255 USD/ton. Increased supply of sunseed oil from Russia is putting pressure on other exporters. Additionally, the larger availability of soyoil has driven down palm oil prices, affecting the entire oil segment. In January, Russia's export tax on sunseed oil will increase to 16,067 rubles/ton (up from 9,195 in December). The increased Russian supply is partially linked to this administrative change. From January 2025, Indonesia’s export duty on unrefined palm oil will rise from 7.5% to 10%. Also, starting January 1, 2025, Indonesia will implement the B40 biodiesel standard, increasing palm oil consumption. In December, export prices for Russian sunseed oil fell by 13% or 150 USD/ton.
A Brazilian court has suspended a law imposing additional taxes on companies clearing forests. The suspension applies to activities involving deforestation and converting land into fields. The law was drafted under pressure from global soy buyers, who threatened to stop purchases if the products were grown on deforested land. On one hand, the court's decision allows farmers to operate at their discretion, aligning with their preferences. On the other hand, some buyers are likely to halt purchases of Brazilian soy.
Egypt's new agency, Mostakbal Misr, has signed direct contracts for the supply of 1.267 million tons of wheat, with most purchases sourced from Russia. This strategic move will eliminate the need for additional wheat purchases until the end of June. The wheat harvesting campaign in Egypt will begin in the second half of April, replenishing part of the country's reserves.