The wheat market began Monday’s session with September 2025 CBOT contracts at $5.06 ½ per bushel, marking a slight 3-cent recovery at last week’s close before easing again in early trade. While soft red winter wheat showed resilience, Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat faced continued pressure. The weekly Commitment of Traders report revealed speculative funds deepening their net short positions in Chicago wheat, reflecting bearish sentiment tied to ample global supplies and pressure from Russia’s upgraded harvest forecast to 85.5 MMT. Russia also raised its wheat export outlook to 42.5 MMT, reinforcing its role as the dominant supplier in international trade.

Corn futures opened Monday with the September 2025 contract at $3.83 ¾ per bushel, after Friday’s modest recovery offset a bearish week dominated by swelling supply forecasts. Despite an additional billion bushels added to the U.S. balance sheet earlier in the week, corn managed to claw back ground, supported by rainfall across the Dakotas, Minnesota, and the western Midwest, which stabilized crop conditions. Speculative funds slightly increased their net short positions, bringing them to over 176,000 contracts. Meanwhile, Brazil’s AgRural reported second-crop corn harvest progress at 94% in central-south regions, with planting of the 2025/26 first crop just beginning.

Soybeans opened the week at $10.22 ¼ per bushel for September 2025, after a sharp rally late last week lifted contracts by more than 54 cents. Market sentiment was buoyed by NOPA’s July crush data, which revealed a record 195.7 million bushels processed, well above expectations and the highest July on record. Soymeal and soyoil markets also reflected bullish momentum, with U.S. oil stocks falling to 1.379 billion pounds, nearly 15% lower year-on-year. Speculative positions shifted sharply as funds cut more than 30,000 contracts from net shorts, underlining renewed optimism in the soy complex amid strong domestic and export demand.

A major development came from Ukraine, where analyst firm ASAP Agri raised its 2025 corn harvest forecast sharply to 30.9 MMT, compared to government and union projections near 28 MMT. The upward revision was driven by abundant July rainfall that boosted yield prospects in key regions. While this provides relief for global supply chains, it may weigh on international corn prices at a time when Brazil and the U.S. are already contributing record output levels.

Brazil’s domestic corn market mirrored these pressures, with the CEPEA index showing continued price declines as record supplies met limited storage capacity and weak purchasing activity. Farmers and traders anticipate further declines as harvest advances. The downward trend in Brazil, combined with swelling global stocks, reinforces bearish pressure on international corn quotations and sets the stage for stiff competition in export markets.

Soybean fundamentals turned increasingly supportive due to the U.S. stock-to-use ratio tightening. USDA’s August report projected 2024/25 ending stocks at 8.98 MMT, down 5.7% from July estimates, driven by robust domestic consumption and international demand. At the same time, U.S. production forecasts for 2025/26 were revised lower, reinforcing a more bullish outlook. Brazil continues to dominate global production with nearly 170 MMT harvested this season, yet U.S. supply constraints keep export parity attractive for Brazilian farmers selling into Asian markets amid the ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions.

Egypt, the world’s top wheat importer, reported domestic purchases of 3.94 MMT in 2025, up from 3.6 MMT last year. The increase underscores efforts to secure wheat amid volatile global markets and highlights North Africa’s continuing reliance on imports from the Black Sea and EU. Such procurement volumes help stabilize domestic food security but may further tighten regional availability if Black Sea weather remains adverse.

In Brazil, a separate concern is emerging from the financial side of the agribusiness sector. Banco do Brasil announced record-high default levels in its agricultural loan portfolio, particularly among soybean, corn, and cattle producers. Rising bankruptcies, triggered by high interest rates, adverse weather, and escalating input costs, have hit farmers across the country’s key production regions. The bank expects short-term stress to persist until the 2025/26 harvest potentially alleviates pressure with improved output and pricing.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s poultry sector received a positive boost as BRF SA announced that both China and Europe are set to resume chicken imports following the successful containment of bird flu. The reopening of these critical markets will help normalize inventories and reduce pressure on the sector. Lower feed costs, particularly corn, are expected to bolster margins in the coming quarters, signaling recovery for Brazil’s leading protein exporter.

In the United States, beef output dropped 1.1% week-on-week, while pork production rose by 2.5%, according to USDA data. Cattle slaughter levels remain at multi-decade lows due to tightening herds, with additional risk posed by the spread of the flesh-eating screwworm in Mexico. The USDA has committed $750 million to a new sterile fly facility in Texas as a containment measure, reflecting fears of further disruption to the U.S. cattle industry, which could elevate beef prices and shift feed demand dynamics.

Finally, weather remains a pivotal factor. The Black Sea region continues to endure heat and dryness, posing risks to corn and sunflower yields, while Europe faces hot conditions impacting spring-sewn crops despite scattered rainfall. In South America, Brazil and Argentina are receiving favorable rains ahead of spring planting, although Argentina faces frost risks that could damage wheat heading in the north. These weather developments will be closely watched as they influence both yield outcomes and price directions in the weeks ahead.