Wheat

Chicago wheat futures opened Friday’s session at $5.07 per bushel for the September 2025 contract, holding onto modest gains from the previous day. Kansas City hard red winter wheat added 2–3 cents while Minneapolis spring wheat traded mixed, reflecting both harvest pressure and ongoing global competition. U.S. harvest progress is nearly complete, with winter wheat cut at 94% and spring wheat advancing steadily. However, quality concerns in Europe due to excessive rains and drought in southwestern Russia continue to temper expectations. USDA export sales data showed weekly bookings of 519,752 metric tons, the lowest in five weeks, down 28% from the previous week but still 5.5% above a year ago. Mexico and South Korea led demand, while Taiwan purchased an additional 90,200 tons in a tender. The International Grains Council raised its 2025/26 global wheat outlook to 811 million tons, trimming stocks to 264 million tons as consumption expectations rise.

Corn

Corn futures began Friday’s trade at $3.87 ¼ per bushel for the September 2025 contract, after a strong rebound the previous day. The ProFarmer Crop Tour concluded with record-setting yield projections: Iowa’s average yield was estimated at 198.43 bushels per acre, while Minnesota reached a tour record 202.86 bpa, both surpassing USDA’s August forecasts. U.S. export sales confirmed new crop bookings of 2.86 million tons, nearly 40% higher than the previous week and the second-largest for the marketing year. Mexico and unknown destinations were the top buyers. Despite strong supply prospects, concerns remain over southern rust and disease pressure in Iowa and Minnesota fields, which could limit final yields. The International Grains Council lifted its global corn production forecast to 1.299 billion tons and stocks to 294 million tons, reinforcing the outlook for abundant supply.

Soybeans

Soybeans opened Friday’s session at $10.34 ½ per bushel for the September 2025 contract, extending Thursday’s sharp rally. USDA confirmed 1.143 million tons of new crop sales, the largest weekly total since January, with Mexico, Spain, and unknown buyers driving demand. Soymeal futures climbed strongly, while soyoil rallied 169 to 244 points, bolstered by expectations of an EPA announcement on refinery waivers. The ProFarmer Crop Tour reported historic pod counts in Illinois, averaging 1,479 per 3x3-foot square, and Iowa at 1,384, both well above long-term averages. Minnesota’s pod counts also surged to 1,247, marking the strongest levels in over two decades. The International Grains Council raised its 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 430 million tons, with stocks now at 85 million, up from last month. Tight U.S. stock-to-use ratios remain a supportive factor, though Brazil’s record exports continue to dominate global supply.

Global Market Drivers

The ProFarmer Crop Tour concluded with unprecedented yield and pod count data across the Midwest. Both Iowa and Minnesota posted the highest corn yields in the tour’s 22-year history, while soybean pod counts in multiple states far exceeded expectations. Still, scouts warned that warm, wet conditions are fostering disease pressures like sudden death syndrome and southern rust, which could trim yields before harvest.

Weather outlooks remain pivotal. Warm and dry conditions across North America in September are expected to extend the growing season, particularly benefiting late corn and soybeans, though dryness in parts of Missouri and Illinois may hinder crop finishing. Cooler weather is forecast for Europe and the Black Sea, with pockets of wetness providing some relief. In Argentina, recent storms boosted soil moisture for wheat, improving nutrient uptake during fertilization.

In trade, Egypt secured at least 200,000 tons of French wheat, with estimates suggesting purchases may exceed 400,000 tons. The deal comes amid tightening Russian supplies and Cairo’s failure to meet domestic procurement targets. Prices ranged from $265–275 per ton c&f, with deferred delivery schedules reflecting logistical hurdles.

China returned to Australian canola purchases for the first time since 2020, booking 50,000 tons via COFCO for shipment later this year. The move follows steep tariffs on Canadian canola, signaling Beijing’s strategy to diversify supply and reshaping oilseed trade flows. Meanwhile, India bought canola oil for the first time in nearly five years as domestic prices surged, highlighting shifting consumption patterns in Asia.

Global stockpile projections were revised higher. The International Grains Council now sees global grain stocks at 597 million tons for 2025/26, up from July’s 582 million, led by increases in corn and soybeans. Wheat stocks were trimmed slightly to 264 million tons due to rising consumption, underlining the balance between robust supply and firm demand.

In Ukraine, the Ministry of Economy reported that 27.3 million tons of early grains have been harvested so far, about 5% below last year’s pace. Wheat output stands at 21 million tons and barley at 5 million, with the sunflower harvest beginning in Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk. Despite progress, total grain output is expected to lag behind last year, underscoring ongoing challenges from weather and reduced planting.

Livestock and biofuel markets also shaped sentiment. U.S. red meat production fell 4.4% year-on-year in July, while Brazil’s poultry sector continues to face bird flu-related export restrictions. At the same time, U.S. ethanol groups criticized Brazil’s new 18% tariff on imports, prompting Washington to launch a Section 301 investigation into trade practices. Decisions on refinery exemptions from the EPA, expected soon, could significantly impact corn and soy demand for biofuel production.

Transportation bottlenecks added to market pressures. USDA reported Mississippi River barge shipments fell to 667,000 tons in the week ending August 16, down from 853,000 tons the prior week. Soybean shipments dropped more than 36% week-on-week, while barge rates in St. Louis rose to $18.51 per short ton, reflecting logistical strain.