Wheat

Wheat futures slid across all three major U.S. exchanges on Tuesday. September CBOT soft red winter wheat closed at $4.98 ½ per bushel, down 4 ¼ cents. Kansas City HRW contracts lost 6–7 cents, finishing below the $5 mark, while Minneapolis spring wheat futures eased by 2–3 cents. Despite U.S. wheat being competitive globally, the muted reaction suggests traders are cautious, especially as the European Union reported exports of only 1.78 MMT of soft wheat since July 1, less than half last year’s pace. U.S. crop progress shows winter wheat 94% harvested, while spring wheat is 36% harvested with condition ratings holding at 50% good-to-excellent.

Corn

Corn futures retreated, pressured by mixed field results from the ProFarmer Crop Tour and steady crop progress data. September CBOT corn closed at $3.79 ½ per bushel, down 3 ½ cents. The U.S. corn crop was reported at 72% in the dough stage, 27% dented, and 3% mature, with condition ratings slipping one point to 71% good-to-excellent. South Dakota yields were estimated at 174.2 bpa—sharply above both last year and the three-year average—while Ohio yields were pegged at 185.7 bpa, just under USDA’s August forecast. Export momentum was subdued, with weekly inspections showing 1.05 MMT of corn shipped, down from 1.52 MMT the previous week.

Soybeans

Soybeans softened after early losses, with September CBOT contracts closing at $10.13 per bushel, down 7 ¾ cents. Soymeal futures climbed, while soyoil fell sharply, extending volatility in the complex. USDA confirmed a private export sale of 228,606 MT to Mexico, providing some support. ProFarmer Crop Tour pod counts in Ohio and South Dakota came in well above last year and historical averages, reinforcing expectations of a strong crop. Weekly inspections reported 474k tons shipped, below last week’s pace but ahead of a year ago. Brazil is projected to export 8.9 MMT of soybeans in August, slightly higher than earlier forecasts, underscoring Brazil’s dominant role in global supply.

Key Global Market Drivers

Russia’s IKAR consultancy raised its 2025 wheat crop estimate to 85.5 MMT and exports to 42.5 MMT, citing stronger yields in the Volga, Urals, and Siberia. The Ministry of Agriculture has already reported 75 MMT of grain harvested with higher-than-expected yields, keeping Russia firmly in the lead as the world’s top exporter.

Egypt’s state buyer Future of Egypt made headlines with purchases of at least 200,000 MT of French wheat, with traders estimating the real figure could top 400,000 MT. The move reflects tight Russian supplies and underlines Egypt’s urgent need to secure imports after missing domestic procurement targets. Prices were reported between $265–275/ton c&f, with delayed deliveries highlighting challenges in Cairo’s new procurement strategy.

China returned to Australian canola for the first time since 2020, booking a 50,000 MT cargo through COFCO for November–December shipment. The deal follows Beijing’s imposition of steep tariffs on Canadian canola and comes as Chinese crushers seek alternative supply. With crush margins favorable, more Australian deals are expected soon, signaling a reshaping of trade flows in the oilseed market.

In vegetable oils, palm oil futures stayed firm above 4,300 ringgit/ton, supported by Indonesia’s aggressive biodiesel mandate and strong U.S. biofuel demand cutting soyoil export availability. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects tightness in edible oils to persist into 2026 as biodiesel programs absorb increasing volumes of supply.

Heavy rains across Argentina’s Pampas pose risks of flooding and disease for wheat crops, while Brazil’s high rainfall is largely neutral so far. Meanwhile, drought in southwest Russia continues to threaten spring wheat quality, and excessive rains in Germany have raised concerns over wheat protein content, despite DBV raising its harvest forecast to 43.5 MMT.

The U.S. market remains influenced by low stock-to-use ratios in soybeans, with USDA projecting 2024/25 ending stocks at just 8.98 MMT. Tight supplies and expectations of reduced 2025/26 output keep global buyers closely watching U.S. balance sheets, especially amid the ongoing U.S.–China trade rift.

In South America, Brazil’s antitrust regulator Cade launched a probe into the soybean moratorium, accusing trading companies of cartel-like behavior in export purchasing. The move could disrupt longstanding agreements preventing soy from deforested land, potentially reshaping procurement strategies.

Peru announced sweeping tax cuts for major agro-exporters, lowering income tax to 15% and exempting small firms entirely. The government aims to attract $24 billion in irrigation investments and boost agricultural exports beyond mining revenues by 2050. Rising shipments of blueberries, grapes, and avocados are already lifting Peru’s global profile, with India targeted as the next big market.

Finally, Brazil’s AgRural reported 1.6% of the 2025/26 summer corn crop already seeded in the Center-South, with the second crop harvest at 94% complete. Early planting progress well ahead of last year adds further weight to expectations of strong Brazilian supply heading into the new season.