Wheat

Chicago wheat futures ended Thursday modestly higher, with September 2025 CBOT contracts closing at $5.07 per bushel, up 1 ½ cents. Kansas City hard red winter wheat added 2–3 cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat traded mixed, with September slipping ¾ cent and December gaining a penny. U.S. harvest progress remains near completion, with winter wheat 94% cut and spring wheat advancing steadily. USDA’s export sales data showed weekly bookings of 519,752 metric tons, a five-week low and down 28% from the prior week, though still 5.5% above the same week last year. Mexico and South Korea led demand, while Taiwan purchased 90,200 tons in a tender. The International Grains Council raised its 2025/26 global wheat outlook to 811 million tons, while trimming stocks to 264 million tons, reflecting both higher consumption and stronger output expectations.

Corn

Corn futures posted a sharp rebound, with September 2025 contracts closing at $3.87 ¼ per bushel, up 7 ¼ cents. The national average cash corn price also strengthened, climbing 7 cents to $3.70. USDA reported a strong week for new crop corn bookings at 2.86 million tons, the second-largest for the marketing year and up nearly 40% from the prior week. Mexico and unknown destinations dominated purchases. The ProFarmer Crop Tour estimated Illinois corn yields at 199.57 bushels per acre, slightly below last year’s record but still the second-highest in tour history. Iowa’s western districts showed yields well above three-year averages, with results exceeding 195 bpa across the board. The International Grains Council raised its global corn production forecast to 1.299 billion tons, with stocks lifted to 294 million tons, reinforcing abundant supply expectations.

Soybeans

Soybeans rallied strongly, with September 2025 CBOT futures closing at $10.34 ½ per bushel, up 19 ½ cents. The national average cash price rose to $9.85 ¾, supported by bullish export sales and robust pod counts in the crop tour. New crop sales hit 1.143 million tons, the largest weekly total since January, with Mexico, Spain, and unknown buyers driving demand. Soymeal futures gained sharply in front contracts, while soyoil surged 169 to 244 points, fueled by expectations of an EPA announcement on refinery waivers. ProFarmer data reported Illinois soybean pod counts at 1,479.22 per 3-by-3-foot square, the highest in at least 22 years, while Iowa’s western districts showed equally impressive figures, all well above historic averages. The International Grains Council pegged world soybean production at 430 million tons for 2025/26, up 2 million from last month, with stocks now estimated at 85 million tons.

Global Market Drivers

Argentina’s corn planting outlook brightened, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecasting 7.8 million hectares for 2025/26, up nearly 10% from last season and marking the second-largest area on record. Recent rains replenished soil moisture, raising expectations for one of the highest production potentials in history.

In the U.S., the ProFarmer Crop Tour reinforced optimism over corn and soybean output, though disease pressures were noted in Iowa, with southern rust in corn and sudden death syndrome in soybeans threatening to trim yields by up to 10%. Scouts warned the crop could look significantly different in two weeks, underscoring ongoing risks.

Russia’s SovEcon lifted its wheat forecast to 85.4 million tons, citing record yields in Siberia and the Urals. However, logistical challenges in moving supplies from inland regions to Black Sea ports could complicate export flows in the coming months, despite the country’s dominant export position.

Ukraine projected its 2025/26 grain and oilseed harvest at 73.4 million tons, down 5% from last year. Corn output is expected at 26.7 million tons, wheat at 21 million, and sunflower seed at 10.1 million, reflecting weather stress and reduced planting. Exports for 2024/25 already fell to 46.7 million tons, down from 57.5 million the year before.

In South America, Bunge diverted Argentina’s first soybean meal cargo bound for China to Vietnam, citing commercial reasons. The shift follows speculation over quality concerns and underscores the volatility in Argentine exports despite recent approvals for China market access.

Palm oil markets remained active, with Indonesia reporting June exports at 3.606 million tons, up sharply from May. Stocks fell to 2.53 million tons as domestic consumption rose, especially for biodiesel. Malaysian exports to the U.S. remain limited but stable, with the government expecting minimal impact from U.S. restrictions due to its sustainability certification framework.

The U.S. ethanol sector faced renewed trade friction, with the National Corn Growers Association criticizing Brazil’s 18% tariff on imports. Washington launched a Section 301 investigation into Brazil’s trade practices, potentially setting the stage for retaliatory measures.

Brazil’s poultry industry faced fresh challenges, with exports projected to fall 2% this year due to bird flu-related embargoes, particularly from China. However, egg exports are expected to surge 117% in 2025 on strong U.S. demand. Meanwhile, China suspended Argentine poultry imports just months after lifting a ban, citing health concerns, further disrupting protein trade flows.