Wheat futures in Chicago opened Wednesday’s session at $4.97 ½ per bushel for the September 2025 contract, continuing the week’s subdued tone. Pressure persists across U.S. exchanges, with Kansas City hard red winter and Minneapolis spring wheat also softening amid harvest progress and competition from Russia’s bumper crop. Still, drought conditions in parts of southwestern Russia and quality concerns in Europe are limiting further downside, leaving the market sensitive to weather updates and trade signals.
Corn futures began the day at $3.79 ¾ per bushel for the September 2025 contract. The market is balancing strong U.S. crop progress against mixed results from the ProFarmer Crop Tour. Yields in South Dakota and Ohio exceeded expectations, reinforcing supply optimism, though pressure from Brazil’s ample supplies and slow U.S. export inspections is weighing on sentiment. Traders remain attentive to export competitiveness and weather conditions across the Americas and Black Sea.
Soybeans opened at $10.12 ½ per bushel for the September 2025 contract, consolidating after recent volatility. USDA-confirmed export sales to Mexico and strong ProFarmer pod counts supported optimism about U.S. output, while Brazil’s projected record shipments continue to underline its dominance in global supply. Tight U.S. stock-to-use ratios remain a critical factor, leaving the market finely balanced between domestic demand strength and weather-related risks.
Russia’s IKAR consultancy raised its wheat production outlook to 85.5 million tons, with exports forecast at 42.5 million tons, citing strong yields in the Volga, Urals, and Siberia. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported 75 million tons already harvested, reinforcing Russia’s dominance as the world’s top wheat exporter. However, continued drought in parts of the southwest threatens spring wheat quality, keeping global buyers cautious.
Egypt emerged as a major buyer this week, with state purchaser Future of Egypt securing at least 200,000 tons of French wheat, though trade sources estimate volumes may exceed 400,000 tons. The deal reflects Cairo’s urgency after domestic procurement shortfalls and tightening Russian supply. Prices were quoted at $265–275 per ton c&f, with deferred delivery schedules underscoring logistical challenges in Egypt’s import strategy.
China re-entered the Australian canola market for the first time since 2020, booking a 50,000-ton cargo through COFCO for shipment later this year. The move follows tariffs on Canadian canola and signals diversification of supply sources as crushers respond to strong margins. More Australian deals are expected soon, reshaping trade flows in the oilseed complex and adding competitive pressure for Canadian and European suppliers.
Vegetable oil markets continued to show firmness, with Malaysian palm oil futures holding above 4,300 ringgit per ton. The strength is underpinned by Indonesia’s aggressive biodiesel mandates and high U.S. biofuel demand, which has reduced soyoil export availability. Analysts expect tight edible oil supplies to persist into 2026, with biofuel programs absorbing increasing volumes.
Adverse weather remains a decisive driver. Argentina’s Pampas is battling excessive rainfall, risking waterlogging and disease for early wheat crops. Brazil’s heavy precipitation remains largely neutral for crops, while Canada faces frost and harvest delays. Germany’s rains raised fresh concerns about wheat protein quality, even as DBV lifted its national crop forecast to 43.5 million tons.
U.S. soybean balance sheets remain a focal point, with USDA projecting 2024/25 ending stocks at just 8.98 million tons. Tightness continues to support futures, but expectations of lower 2025/26 output raise additional concerns. Ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions add uncertainty, keeping buyers wary of potential disruptions to supply flows.
In South America, regulatory and policy developments are also shaping markets. Brazil’s antitrust authority Cade has opened a probe into the soybean moratorium, accusing exporters of cartel-like behavior in procurement. If disruptions arise, global supply chains could be significantly affected, especially in Europe and Asia where Brazilian beans dominate.
Beyond South America, Peru announced sweeping tax reforms to encourage agribusiness. The new policy lowers income tax for large agro-exporters to 15%, exempts smaller firms, and aims to attract $24 billion in irrigation investments by 2050. Rising exports of blueberries, grapes, and avocados are already lifting Peru’s role in global agrifood markets, with India targeted as a priority buyer.
Brazil’s AgRural reported 1.6% of the 2025/26 summer corn crop already planted in the Center-South region, while the second corn harvest is 94% complete. Early planting progress far exceeds last year’s pace, reinforcing expectations of abundant supply entering the new marketing year and keeping international corn prices under pressure.