Wheat futures ended Monday’s session lower across all three U.S. exchanges. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) September 2025 wheat closed at $5.02 ¾ per bushel, down 3 ¾ cents, with Kansas City hard red winter and Minneapolis spring wheat also recording small losses. U.S. harvest progress remains close to average, with 94% of winter wheat cut and 36% of spring wheat harvested. Export shipments reached 395,240 metric tons for the week, 4.7% below the prior week but 5.6% above the same week in 2024. Russian production forecasts were revised upward to 85.5 million tons, alongside a higher export projection of 42.5 million tons, adding to global supply pressure.

Corn futures slipped marginally, with September 2025 contracts closing at $3.83 per bushel, down ¾ cent. USDA reported a private sale of 124,000 metric tons to unknown destinations, but exports remain under pressure, with inspections showing just 1.05 million tons shipped last week—down 31% from the prior week. Mexico remained the leading buyer. Crop progress indicated 97% silking, 72% in the dough stage, and 27% dented, with crop conditions slightly weaker. In Brazil, the second corn crop reached 94% harvested, and the new season’s planting has just begun. Meanwhile, the annual ProFarmer crop tour kicked off, offering an early gauge of U.S. yield potential.

Soybeans also eased lower, with September 2025 futures closing at $10.20 ¾ per bushel, down 1 ½ cents. The national average cash bean price edged higher to $9.75 ½, while soymeal slipped and soyoil strengthened. Crop progress showed 95% of U.S. soybeans blooming and 82% setting pods, in line with historical averages. Export inspections reached 473,605 metric tons, with Egypt as the top buyer. Shipments remain 11.6% above last year’s pace. Weather added mixed signals, with beneficial rains across parts of the northern Midwest but drier forecasts ahead.

Global supply headlines continue to weigh heavily on corn. Analyst ASAP Agri sharply raised Ukraine’s 2025 corn production outlook to 30.9 million tons, up from 27.6 million, citing excellent July rains. This is above most other forecasts, signaling stronger regional competition for U.S. exports. At the same time, Ukraine’s sunflower seed forecast was trimmed to 13 million tons amid drought in southern and eastern zones, tempering bullish support from the oilseed side.

In Brazil, downward pressure persists on corn prices despite a record crop. Domestic buyers remain cautious, expecting further declines as storage bottlenecks intensify. The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index stood at BRL 63.37 per 60-kg bag on August 14, just 0.3% lower week-on-week. Wholesale markets were slightly firmer, but over-the-counter farm-level prices edged down. Combined with record global output expectations, corn remains structurally weak in international trade.

Soybeans, in contrast, found underlying support from tightening U.S. stock-to-use ratios. NOPA’s July crush surged to 195.699 million bushels, the largest July figure ever and the fifth-highest for any month on record. Strong biofuel demand and new processing capacity have lifted crush rates, while soyoil stocks fell to 1.379 billion pounds, down 8% year-on-year. USDA also projects 2024/25 U.S. ending stocks at 8.98 million tons, lower than earlier estimates, reinforcing the market’s sensitivity to demand shocks.

Weather developments across major producing regions remain central to trade flows. North America’s Midwest and Plains saw high heat offset by periodic rainfall, while Canada’s Prairies face more showers and potential frost risks that could disrupt harvest. In South America, Argentina braces for cold fronts with frost risk to wheat, while Brazil anticipates ample rainfall for early spring planting. Europe expects widespread showers from France to Romania, easing crop stress, while the Black Sea region remains dry—particularly harmful to corn and sunflowers. Australia also received scattered rains, though eastern zones remain vulnerable.

Egypt continued its local wheat procurement drive, reaching 3.94 million tons from domestic farmers this season, up from 3.6 million tons last year. The country remains one of the largest global buyers and its procurement levels help shape import requirements in coming months. Additional attention is focused on Russian export flows, given updated production figures and strong competitiveness in global tenders.

In Brazil, financial stress among agribusinesses is adding another layer of uncertainty. Banco do Brasil reported the highest agribusiness loan default levels in its history, with delinquencies particularly concentrated among soybean, corn, and cattle producers. While high interest rates, weather variability, and weaker margins have driven defaults, expectations of a record 2025/26 harvest may help stabilize credit conditions in the months ahead.

Livestock and broader protein markets also tie into grain demand. USDA reported that U.S. beef production fell by 1.1% week-on-week, while pork output rose 2.5%. In Brazil, poultry giant BRF expects China and Europe to resume chicken imports soon, after avian flu concerns subsided. A rebound in poultry trade could support feed demand, especially for corn and soymeal, improving fundamentals for grain usage globally.