Wheat

Chicago wheat futures ended Wednesday’s session with September 2025 contracts closing at $4.96 ¾ per bushel, down slightly as harvest pressure and global competition weighed on prices. Kansas City hard red winter wheat also softened, slipping below the $5 threshold, while Minneapolis spring wheat shed 1–2 cents. Despite strong U.S. harvest progress, with winter wheat nearly complete and spring wheat advancing steadily, quality concerns in Europe and ongoing drought in parts of southwest Russia prevented deeper losses. Global traders remain cautious, balancing Russia’s large harvest outlook against regional weather risks.

Corn

Corn futures slipped further, with September 2025 contracts closing at $3.78 ½ per bushel, pressured by steady U.S. crop progress and Brazil’s strong supplies. The ProFarmer Crop Tour continued to deliver mixed yield readings: South Dakota and Ohio results exceeded USDA expectations, supporting optimism, but muted U.S. export inspections and Brazil’s dominance in global shipments limited upside potential. While U.S. fields continue to show resilience, global buyers are closely monitoring competitiveness and upcoming weather forecasts across the Corn Belt, South America, and the Black Sea.

Soybeans

Soybean futures also eased, with the September 2025 contract closing at $10.11 per bushel, down modestly after recent swings. USDA-confirmed export sales to Mexico and strong pod counts from the ProFarmer Crop Tour reinforced expectations of solid U.S. output. However, Brazil’s record export pace continues to dominate the global market, adding pressure on U.S. competitiveness. Tight U.S. stock-to-use ratios remain the underlying support, with traders weighing short-term supply optimism against longer-term concerns over future U.S. production and trade risks.

Global Market Drivers

Russia’s IKAR consultancy raised its wheat production forecast to 85.5 million tons, with exports projected at 42.5 million tons, supported by high yields across the Volga, Urals, and Siberia. The Ministry of Agriculture confirmed 75 million tons already harvested, cementing Russia’s role as the top global supplier. Yet, drought in the southwest continues to cast uncertainty over spring wheat quality, keeping international buyers alert.

Egypt’s state buyer Future of Egypt made waves with purchases of at least 200,000 tons of French wheat, with traders suggesting the true figure could surpass 400,000 tons. The decision highlights Cairo’s urgency after missing domestic procurement goals and facing tighter Russian supplies. Prices were reported between $265–275 per ton c&f, with deferred deliveries pointing to logistical constraints.

China re-entered the Australian canola market for the first time since 2020, securing a 50,000-ton cargo via COFCO for shipment later this year. The move follows tariffs on Canadian canola and represents a shift in sourcing strategy as crushers seek to capitalize on favorable margins. Analysts expect additional purchases soon, reshaping trade flows in the oilseed complex.

Vegetable oil markets remain firm, with Malaysian palm oil futures above 4,300 ringgit per ton. Demand from Indonesia’s biodiesel program and U.S. biofuel producers has tightened soyoil export availability, with analysts projecting edible oil supply constraints to extend into 2026.

Adverse weather continued to dominate sentiment. Argentina’s Pampas region faced excessive rains that risk flooding and disease in wheat crops, while Brazil’s heavy rainfall remained mostly neutral for output. Canada struggled with frost and delayed harvests, while in Europe, German rains heightened concerns over wheat protein levels even as DBV raised the national crop forecast to 43.5 million tons.

In the U.S., soybean stocks remain a focal point. USDA projects 2024/25 ending stocks at just 8.98 million tons, one of the lowest ratios in recent years. While current supply expectations are supportive, concerns over reduced 2025/26 output are already weighing on long-term sentiment, with trade tensions with China adding further uncertainty.

Regulatory changes in South America also influenced trade outlooks. Brazil’s antitrust regulator Cade launched a probe into the soybean moratorium, accusing exporters of cartel-like practices. Any disruption to this long-standing sustainability agreement could have far-reaching implications for supply chains in Europe and Asia.

Beyond South America, Peru introduced sweeping tax reforms to boost agribusiness, cutting corporate tax rates for large exporters to 15% and exempting smaller firms altogether. The government hopes to attract $24 billion in irrigation investment by 2050, reinforcing Peru’s role as a major player in global fresh produce exports, with India singled out as a growth market.

Finally, Brazil’s AgRural reported that 1.6% of the 2025/26 summer corn crop has already been planted in the Center-South, while the second crop harvest is nearly complete at 94%. Early planting progress well above last year’s pace strengthens expectations of abundant Brazilian supply, keeping international corn markets under pressure heading into the new season.