Grain Highlights 23.09.2024

In 2024, Russia's corn production will decrease to 11.9 million tons. Currently, a major buyer of Russian corn is Iran.

- After the cold spells in May and the summer drought, the European part of Russia is facing a new anomaly – a warm and dry autumn. Grain crops from the 2023/24 season have reached 104 million tons, including 76 million tons of wheat and 15.9 million tons of barley. The harvested oilseeds are being collected, with 3.76 million tons of sunseed, 3.15 million tons of rapeseed, and 2.74 million tons of soybeans already gathered. Winter crops have been sown on 8.5 million hectares, with a target of 20 million hectares. IKAR has forecasted a grain production of 125 million tons (compared to 132 million in 2023), including 82.2 million tons of wheat (down from 86 million).

- In 2024, Russia's corn production will decrease to 11.9 million tons. Currently, Iran is a major buyer of Russian corn. There are concerns about a significant domestic shortage of corn, prompting suggestions to limit corn exports.

- From September 1 to 20, Russian grain exports totaled 4.09 million tons (-18.7% compared to the previous year). Wheat exports amounted to 3.753 million tons (-10.8%), barley exports reached 257,000 tons (compared to 658,000 tons last year), and corn exports were 82,000 tons (down from 166,000 tons).

- Last week, US soymeal export sales totaled 280,000 tons (compared to 276,000 tons the previous week). Since the start of the season, sales have reached 13.885 million tons (+7.6% compared to the previous year). For the entire 2023/24 season (ending in late September), the USDA forecasts exports of 15.72 million tons (+10% compared to 2023/24). The United States will remain the third-largest exporter of soymeal in the world. As of August 29, 2024, US exports are at a 10-year high.

- Brazilian authorities have raised the duty-free wheat import quota for 2024 from 750,000 tons to 1,000,000 tons for countries outside of MERCOSUR. The country will need more wheat before the start of harvesting campaigns in Brazil and Argentina.

- Indian importers have canceled contracts to purchase about 100,000 tons of palm oil with delivery from October to December after the government raised import duties. Another factor in their decision was the high price of oil, which is now at its highest level in the last 2.5 months. Approximately 750,000 tons of palm oil are delivered to the country each month, and this cancellation represents only 13.3% of monthly deliveries.

- Authorities in Bangladesh have authorized the accelerated import of 400,000 tons of wheat and 200,000 tons of rice within the next 15 days under eased conditions, aiming to avoid food shortages in the country.

- Algeria has purchased 40,000–80,000 tons of feed corn from Argentina or Brazil, with delivery by October 20, 2024.