Grain Highlights 01.08.2024

The Ukrainian Grain Association has lowered its forecast for Ukraine's 2024 grain and oilseed production to 71.8 million tons (-2.8 compared to the previous estimate and 82.8 in 2023/24).

- In August, the export tax on sunseed oil from Russia remains zero, while the tax on sunseed meal will be 1,869.7 rubles/ton (901.3 in July).

- The Ukrainian Grain Association has lowered its forecast for Ukraine's 2024 grain and oilseed production to 71.8 million tons (-2.8 from the previous estimate and 82.8 in 2023/24). Total exports are expected to reach 41 million tons (-2.5 and -16). The sunseed production will be 12.8 million tons (-0.9 and 14.2). Processed sunseed in Ukraine is expected at 12.5 million tons (13.5). The rapeseed production is estimated at 4.3 million tons (4.5 in 2023/24), with exports of 3.4 million tons (3.7), and the soybean production will be 4.8 million tons (-0.7 from the previous estimate), with exports of 3.5 million tons (3 in 2023/24). The wheat production is projected at 19.8 million tons, with exports of 13 million tons, and the barley production will reach 4.95 million tons with exports of 2 million tons.

- According to the latest forecast from StoneX, Australia's 2024/25 wheat production will be 30 million tons (25 in the previous estimate and 26 in 2023/24).

- Recent rains in China are forcing farmers to rush to sell their new wheat crop to avoid the risk of sprouting. Authorities report a new record wheat production of 138 million tons (+2.7% from 2023/24), but imports in the first half of 2024 have risen to 9.3 million tons (+16%). The weak economy prevents an increase in flour consumption in the country.

- As of 26.07.2024, soymeal stocks in China have reached a record 1.38 million tons (+29% from June and +86.5% from the previous year). Soybean stocks also rose to 7.12 million tons (+14.3% and +29.5%).

- According to the Indian Meteorological Department, July saw 9% more rainfall than usual. The monsoon started six days earlier, accelerating the planting of spring crops. About 50% of India's crops depend on the monsoon rains from June to September.

- According to an FAS USDA forecast, India will produce 328.85 million tons of grain in 2023/24 (329.69 in 2022/23). The wheat production will be 113 million tons, rice 138 million tons, and corn production will reach 35.7 million tons. For 2024/25, the corn production is projected to be 27.5 million tons.

- On 31.07.2024, Taiwanese company MFIG purchased 60,000 tons of feed wheat from ADM at a price of 194.99 USD/ton C&F, with delivery within September-October.

- According to a Sunvin Group India forecast, India's 2024/25 imports of unrefined sunseed  oil will be 3.4 million tons (3.5 in 2023/24). Given the heat in Ukraine and the decline in the sunseed production to 12.5 million tons, oil supplies to India might come from the EU. Palm oil imports will reach 9.3 million tons (9.2), and soyoil imports will be 3.3 million tons (3.2). For 2023/24, Argentina has doubled its soybean production and oil production, and Brazil's export potential will be 1.6-1.7 million tons of soyoil. The rapeseed production in Ukraine is expected to reach 4.3 million tons, and the soybean production is estimated at 4.8 million tons.