Grain Highlights 24.05.2024

According to analysts from IGC, wheat consumption in Russia for 2023/24 is projected to be 42.6 million tons, with exports reaching 53.1 million tons.

- According to analysts from IGC, wheat consumption in Russia for 2023/24 is projected to be 42.6 million tons, with exports reaching 53.1 million tons. Grain production in Russia is expected to reach 126.9 million tons (-5.9 and 134/), with grain export potential at 71.2 million tons (73.6 compared to 2023/24), and transitional grain stocks in Russia at 13.7 million tons (-1.6). Global wheat production for the new season is forecasted to reach 794.5 million tons (-3.2 and +4.1), with reserves at 259.8 million tons (-6.1 compared to 2023/24). IGC predicts global grain production at 2,312 million tons (2,297), consumption at 2,320 million tons (-1 and 2,311).

- According to the Price Index Center's forecast for 2024, sunseed production in Russia is expected to reach 16.2 million tons (+4.5% compared to initial expectations) and soybean production is expected at 6.6 million tons (+11.9%). Wheat production is projected to be 86.1 million tons (90.5). SovEcon forecasts the sunseed production at 16.6 million tons.

- Rusagrotrans forecasts wheat exports from Russia for 2023/24 at 54 million tons (53.1 in the previous estimate). In May, exports are expected to reach 4.4 – 4.5 million tons (4.2 in the previous estimate and 4.28 in May 2023).

- For the week of May 29 – June 4, 2024, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 2,977.3 rubles/ton (3,109.7 the week before), while barley and corn continue to be duty-free.

- As of May 23, 2024, in Ukraine, spring crops cover 5.4 million hectares (96.4% of planned areas), including 252,500 hectares of wheat (102.6%), 782,200 hectares of barley (95.6%), and 3.809 million hectares of corn (97%). Sunseed planting covers 4.958 million hectares (94%), and soybean areas reach 1.83 million hectares (92%).

- For the week ending on May 22, 2024, Ukraine exported 141,000 tons of sunflower oil (+25% compared to the previous week), with India being the main customer.

- Moldova is experiencing prolonged drought, which will significantly reduce wheat, barley, and rapeseed yields in 2024. The same applies to significant areas of Romania near Moldova.

- Turkey has sold 75,000 tons of hard wheat at a price of 365 - 366.5 USD/ton FOB with delivery in June.

- According to FranceAgriMer data, 63% of soft wheat crops in France are in good to excellent condition (64% the previous week and 93% the previous year), while 64% of durum wheat crops are in good condition (66% and 86%), as well as 73% of spring barley crops (74% and 95%). As of May 20, 2024, corn planting covers 78% of planned areas, slightly below the previous year's level (96% on average for the last five years).

- During the period from May 1 to May 19, 2024, U.S. corn export sales amounted to 2.3 million tons, which is 14% less than the previous year and the lowest level in the last 6 years. The quantity represents only 4.1% of USDA's forecast for the season and is the lowest level in the last 14 years. The sales ratio was 4.4% the previous year, and the export ratio was 5%.

- According to data from the Grain Exchange in Buenos Aires, as of May 23, 2024, 2.12 million hectares of corn have been harvested in Argentina, accounting for 28.2% of the areas, with 17.2 million tons of grain harvested at an average yield of 8.19 tons/hectare. The forecast for the total production remains unchanged at 46.5 million tons (-9.5 compared to 2022/23). Soybeans have been harvested on 13.24 million hectares (77.9%), with 41.29 million tons of production harvested at an average yield of 3.12 tons/hectare.

- South Korea's MFG has announced a tender to purchase 70,000 tons of feed corn of unspecified origin and delivery in September.

- The government of Bangladesh has approved purchases of 30 million liters of soyoil and 30,000 tons of fertilizers in 2024 to meet the growing domestic demand.

- At a tender organized by Tunisia for the purchase of 100,000 tons of soft wheat, the lowest offer received was for 273.69 USD/ton C&F. The delivery is scheduled for June.