Grain Highlights 18.04.2024

The Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine has made the first forecast for the grain and oilseed production in the country in 2024.

- According to the estimate of the Bank of Russia, the grain production in Russia in 2024 will be in the range of 135 - 145 million tons, including wheat production of 86 million tons, which is an optimal result given good precipitation. In 2023, the grain production was 144.9 million tons, including 92.8 million tons of wheat. ProZerno's forecast is 140 million tons overall and 90 - 91 million tons of wheat, while IKAR predicts 146 million tons overall and 93 million tons of wheat.

- In early April, the reserves of oilseeds in agricultural organizations in Russia were 3.1 million tons, which is 25% less than the previous year, including 1.5 million tons of sunseed (-24.5%). The reserves of grain crops were 23.2 million tons (-5.7%), including 14.6 million tons of wheat (-1%) and 2.3 million tons of corn (-13.8%).

- Ukraine's Ministry of Agriculture has made the first forecast for the grain and oilseed production in the country in 2024. The grain production will be 52.4 million tons, including 19.2 million tons of wheat (22.2 in 2023), 4.9 million tons of barley (5.7), and 26.7 million tons of corn (30.5). The oilseed harvest will be 21.7 million tons, including 12.4 million tons of sunseed (12.9) and 4.1 million tons of rapeseed (4.7).

- According to APK-Inform's forecast for 2024, rapeseed production in Ukraine will reach 4.3 million tons (+4% compared to the previous estimate and +7% compared to 2023). The export of this crop will reach 3.6 million tons (+2% and -2%).

- In 2024, rapeseed production in Belarus will exceed 1 million tons, similar to the level of 2023.

- According to FranceAgriMer, the export of French soft wheat to the EU in 2023/24 will be 10 million tons (10.15 in the previous estimate). Ending stocks will reach 3.75 million tons (3.74 in the previous estimate and 2.54 in 2022/23). Barley stocks will be 1.66 million tons (1.75 and 1.01), and corn stocks will be 2.34 million tons (2.43 and 1.65).

- Abiove has raised its estimate for soybean production in Brazil in 2023 to a record 160.3 million tons (159 in the previous forecast), increasing carryover stocks into early 2024. The forecast for the current production remains unchanged at 153.8 million tons, with over 80% of the area already harvested. Exports will reach 97.8 million tons (101.86), processing estimated was increased to a record 54.5 million tons (54.17), soymeal exports estimate was raised to 21.6 million tons (22.5), and soyoil exports to 1.15 million tons (2.33). Domestic soyoil consumption will reach 9.7 million tons (+0.1 and +1%).

- According to Grain Exchange's forecast for 2024/25, wheat areas in Argentina will reach 5.9 million hectares (-6.9% compared to the average level of the last 5 years).

- Jordan has purchased 110,000 tons of feed barley of unspecified origin at a price of 216 USD/ton C&F with delivery scheduled within July-September.

- According to Oil World's estimate for the period January-March 2024, global soybean processing reaches 76.08 million tons (+8% compared to the previous year). Soyoil production increases by 1.1 million tons to 14.4 million tons, while soymeal production increases by 4.4 million tons to 59.7 million tons.