Grain Highlights 26.01.2024

The government of Turkey has decided to reduce the import tax on sunflower seeds from 27% to 12% and on sunseed oil from 36% to 22%.

- The Russian Vegetable Oil Union forecasts vegetable oil production in Russia to be 9.5 million tons in 2024 (+5% compared to 2023). Sunseed oil production will be 7.2 million tons, soyoil production is expected at 1.05 million tons, and rapeseed oil production is projected at 1.2 million tons. Oil exports are expected to be 8.2 million tons, including 5.1 million tons of sunsed oil, 1.1 million tons of rapeseed oil, and 0.85 million tons of soyoil.

- As of 31.01.2024, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 3,630.2 rubles/ton (3,588.5 a week earlier). The export tax on barley will be 512 rubles/ton (169.2), and export tax on corn will be 926 rubles/ton (644.2).

- By 25.01.2024, 90% of corn areas in Ukraine have been harvested, yielding 28.48 million tons of grain with an average yield of 7.79 tons/hectare. In the last week, 48,000 tons of corn have been harvested. The total grain production for 2023/24 is 58.724 million tons.

- In 2023/24, the wheat production in the UK is estimated to reach 14 million tons (15.5 in 2022/23) according to AHDB. Imports are 1.7 million tons (+0.4%), consumption is 14.8 million tons (+0.2%), including 7 million tons for fodder (+0.1%) and 7.5 million tons for food (+0.2%). Barley production is 6.9 million tons (-0.5%), and oats production is 0.8 million tons (-0.2%).

- The Turkish government has decided to reduce import duties on sunflower seeds from 27% to 12% and on sunseed oil from 36% to 22%. Import quotas have been set at 100,000 tons for sunflower seeds and 250,000 tons for sunseed oil, valid until 15.04.2024.

- From August to December, canola processing in Canada reaches a record 4.57 million tons (-14% compared to 2022/23). In December alone, processing is 943,000 tons (943,300 in November and 826,400 in December 2022). Canola oil production during this period is 402,200 tons (386,900 and 345,700), and canola meal is 549,300 tons (526,400 and 485,800). Oil World predicts canola processing in Canada for the entire 2023/24 to be 10.5-10.7 million tons (-20%).

- Refinitiv lowers the soybean production in Brazil for 2023/24 by 3.9 million tons to 149.3 million tons (-5.3% compared to 2022/23) due to reduced planting density. The corn production is projected to be 119.2 million tons (-1.4% and -12.7%).

- The Grain Exchange in Buenos Aires raises its forecast for the 2023/24 soybean production in Argentina to 52.5 million tons and corn to 56.5 million tons. By 25.01.2024, 10% of sunflower fields have been harvested (16% a year earlier), with 51% of crops in good or excellent condition. The wheat production for 2023/24 has been completed, with 15.1 million tons of grain harvested (+25% compared to 2022/23).

- During the week of January 13-19, soybean processing in China reached 1.7 million tons (+46% compared to the previous year). As of 19.01.2024, soymeal stocks are 1 million tons (+5% from the previous week, +12% from November, and double compared to the previous year), and soyoil stocks are 870,000 tons (-2%, -5%, +21%).