Grain Highlights 22.01.2024

The European Commission has allowed Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, and Slovakia to limit the import of agricultural products from Ukraine to stabilize their domestic markets.

- During the period from January 1 to January 21, 1.076 million tons of grain were exported from the Russian port of Novorossiysk, which is a 14% decrease compared to January 2022. Of this, 1.049 million tons were wheat, and 27,900 tons were barley. The major clients for wheat include Egypt with 385,400 tons, Pakistan with 162,600 tons, Bangladesh with 154,500 tons, and Indonesia with 120,900 tons.

- As of January 11, 2024, 90% of the corn areas in Ukraine have been harvested, resulting in the collection of 28.432 million tons of produce with an average yield of 7.79 tons per hectare. In the last week alone, 65,000 tons of corn were harvested.

- The European Commission has allowed Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, and Slovakia to limit the import of agricultural products from Ukraine to stabilize their domestic markets. Although overall EU imports will not disrupt the balance, Ukraine's neighboring countries will suffer, prompting these measures.

- In the first half of the 2023/24 season, Bulgaria's wheat exports reached almost 4 million tons, including 3 million tons to third countries and 1 million tons to EU countries. The major buyers are Indonesia, Spain, and Algeria.

- Refinitiv has raised its forecast for the corn production in Argentina for 2023/24 by 1.3 million tons to 56.7 million tons. The estimate for the soybean production was raised by 1.2 million tons to 50.4 million tons.

- According to official data, in 2023, Brazilian soybean shipments to China reached 69.95 million tons (+29% compared to 2022), while those from the United States amounted to 24.17 million tons (-13%). The total import was 99.41 million tons. In December alone, imports from Brazil were 4.98 million tons, and from the US, they reached 3.85 million tons. Analysts expect soybean imports to Brazil in the first quarter of 2024 to be 18.5 million tons (-20%).

- Farmers in Malaysia anticipate drought in the coming months. In light of this, irrigation of oil palm plantations is currently underway, along with proper fertilization. Palm trees require 1-2 months to absorb moisture from the soil and fertilizers. Even if drought starts in March, good fruit yields can still be expected. The highest yields are obtained from April to November. Due to El Niño, a decline in palm oil production of 1-3 million tons is expected in Malaysia during the season.

- Over the last two weeks, wheat transportation through the Suez Canal has decreased by 40% to 0.5 million tons. In 2022/23, due to the war in Ukraine, canal transport sharply increased, and fees reached 9 billion USD, which is 2% of Egypt's GDP. The country's national debt is 165 billion USD, and part of these revenues is used for debt servicing. Over the past three years (COVID-19), the country has experienced a shortage of foreign currency for wheat purchases. Egypt's situation worsens during these years, and the country is one of the major importers of all food products globally.

- In 2023, Egypt's state-owned company GASC imported 4.5 million tons of wheat into the country - 2.93 million tons from Russia, 780,000 tons from Romania, 360,000 tons from France, 270,000 tons from Bulgaria, and 120,000 tons from Ukraine. Import volume is expected to reach 5 million tons in 2024. Normally, the private sector's share of imports is 45% of the total import, reaching 55% in 2023.

- During 2023/24, wheat areas in India increases by 7.5% compared to 2022/23, reaching 23.69 million acres. Considering increased farmer support, the sown area plan is fulfilled at 107%.