Grain Highlights 24.03.2023

The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia may recommend that Russian farmers stop exporting wheat and sunseed oil given the low world prices. This news on Friday have led to the sharp increases on the grain markets around the world and a development on this is now expected.

- According to IKAR's forecast, grain exports from Russia will reach 57 million tons in 2022/23, including 46 million tons of wheat. In April, total exports will be 5.7 - 5.8 million tons, including wheat exports of 4.7 – 4.8 million tons.

- From April 1, 2023, the export tax on Russian sunseed oil will decrease to 1,398.9 rubles/ton (2,068.1) and the export tax on sunseed meal will increase to 4,777.6 rubles/ton.

- Over the period of 29.03 - 04.04.2023, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 5,409.6 rubles/ton (5,327.9 a week earlier). The export tax on barley will be 3,245.3 rubles/ton (3,298.2) and the export tax on corn will be 2,885 rubles/ton (2,646.9).

- From the beginning of the season to March 24, 2023, grain exports from Ukraine reached 36,591 million tons, including 4,294 million tons in March. The export of wheat was 12.558 million tons (1.22), barley exports were 2.261 million tons (211,000) and corn exports reached 21.455 million tons (2.851).

- The wintering of winter crops in Ukraine has passed successfully and the crops are in satisfactory condition. As of 20.03.2023, the vegetation of the plants has resumed.

- As of 20.03.2023, according to FranceAgriMer data, 94% of soft winter wheat crops are in good and excellent condition in France (95% a week earlier and 92% a year earlier), as well as 93% of winter barley crops  (-1% and 89%), and 99% of spring barley crops (99% and 93%). In March, it rained a lot, which improved the soil moisture and gave an excellent start to the development of the crops.

- The Rosario Grain Exchange forecasts a 2022/23 corn production in Argentina of 35 million tons (51.1 in 2021/22). Corn consumption in the country is projected at 15.3 million tons (+1.8), corn exports are expected at 24 million tons (-10.5) and ending corn stocks will reach 2.1 million tons (6.4). The soybean production will reach 27 million tons (42.2), soybean imports will reach 7.9 million tons (4.6), domestic consumption is estimated at 35.4 million tons, including processing of 30.3 million tons, exports of 2.8 million tons (5.6) and ending soybean stocks of 1.9 million tons (-3.3).

- As of March 22, 2023, the harvesting campaign of corn has started in Argentina, according to data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, and 5% of the areas have already been harvested (10% a year earlier and 13% on average for the last five years). 6% of crops are in good condition (7% a week earlier), 58% in bad and very bad (60%), and 36% in satisfactory (33%). The forecast for the corn productions of 36 million tons (52 in 2021/22) remains unchanged.