Grain Highlights 17.03.2023

18 Mar, 2023
Grain Highlights 17.03.2023
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its forecast for the 2022/23 soybean production in Argentina to 25 million tons (29 in the previous estimate), which is the lowest level since 1990/21 to date - 20.1 million tons.

- Export prices of Russian wheat from the new crop are comparable to those of August 2021, according to data from Rusagrotrans - 270 - 275 USD/ton. The forecast for the export of wheat in March was increased from 4.3 million tons to a record 4.5 - 4.6 million tons, with 2.2 million tons of wheat exported in the first half of the month. The previous record was set in March 2018 – 3.58 million tons. Egypt has purchased 120,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat at FOB prices of 279.5 USD/ton. Algeria bought 570,000 tons of wheat with delivery in May at 312 USD/ton C&F, which is 280 USD/ton FOB Novorossiysk. Jordan has bought 60,000 tons of Romanian wheat at a price of 309.75 USD/ton and delivery in early August. This is 273 USD/ton FOB Novorossiysk. 50,000 tons of barley were also purchased at a price of 275.5 USD/ton, delivery in early September, which is 235 – 240 USD/ton FOB Novorossiysk. Saudi Arabia has purchased 1.043 million tons of wheat at a price of 312.74 – 323.15 USD/ton and delivery within July – August and FOB Novorossiysk price of 278 – 284 USD/ton. Tunisia bought 234,000 tons of wheat at 313-328 USD/ton with April-May delivery and FOB Novorossiysk price of 277-292 USD/ton.

- In the week starting on 22.03.2023, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 5,327.5 rubles/ton (5,344). The export tax on barley will be 3,298.2 rubles/ton (3,016.6) and the export tax on corn will be 2,646.9 rubles/ton (2,615.3).

- Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and the UN have agreed to extend the grain deal for another 60 days until 05/17/2023.

- From the beginning of the season to 17.03.2023, the export of grain from Ukraine reached 35,403 tons, including 3.106 million tons in March. The export of wheat was 12,213 million tons (875,000), corn exports were 20,661 million tons (2,057) and barley exports reached 2,215 million tons (165,000).

- According to a DRV forecast, the grain production in Germany in 2023/24 will be 42.7 million tons (43.5 in 2022/23), including wheat production of 22 million tons (-0.5), barley production of 10.9 million tons (-0.3) and corn production of 3.8 million tons (no change). Rapeseed production is expected to reach 4.2 million tons (-0.1).

- According to NOPA's estimate, soybean processing in the United States in February was 4.5 million tons (4.9 in January). In the first 6 months of the season, processing reached 30.0 million tons (-0.3 compared to 2021/22), which is the lowest level for the last three years.

- According to Anec's forecast, Brazil will export 14.9 million tons of soybeans in March (+0.7 compared to the previous estimate and +2.8 compared to March 2022), soymeal exports will be 2.1 million tons (+0.2 and +0.8), corn exports are expected at 845,100 tons (107,200 in March 2022) and wheat exports are projected at 728,600 tons (508,200).

- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its forecast for the 2022/23 soybean production in Argentina to 25 million tons (29 in the previous estimate), which is the lowest level since 1990/21 to date - 20.1 million tons. The corn production will reach 36 million tons (37.5), which is the lowest level for the last 7 years.

- Over the April-February period, the import of Russian fertilizers (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium) in India reached a three-year peak of 34.19 million tons.