Grain Highlights 05.08.2022

Rusagrotrans has raised its forecast for the wheat production in Russia in 2022 from 92.7 million tons to 94.1 million tons. A historically record production is expected in the southern parts of the country.

- Rusagrotrans has raised its forecast for the wheat production in Russia in 2022 from 92.7 million tons to 94.1 million tons. A historically record production is expected in the southern parts of the country.

- In July, 2.2 million tons of wheat were exported from Russia (2.25 in 2021). The forecast for August indicates exports of 3.75 million tons (3.75 in 2021 and 4.86 on average for the last five years).

- As of August 4, 2022, 4.8 million hectares (41% of the area) were harvested in Ukraine, with 17.5 million tons of grain harvested at an average yield of 3.64 tons/hectare. The harvested areas with wheat are 3.5 million hectares and 12.6 million tons of wheat were harvested at an average yield of 3.6 tons/hectare. The harvested barley areas reach 1.3 million hectares, 4.4 million tons of barley were harvested at an average yield of 3.38 tons/hectare. The harvested rapeseed areas amount to 929,000 hectares (79% of the area) and 2.5 million tons of rapeseed were harvested at an average yield of 2.68 tons/hectare.

- According to data from APC - Inform, 1.7 million tons of grain were exported from Ukraine in July (1.4 in June and -45% compared to July 2021). The export of wheat was 376,100 tons, barley exports totaled 149,700 tons,  and corn exports reached 1.2 million tons. Now the ports of Odessa, Chernomorsk and Pivdenny are working for export, and before the war, a total of 3.6 million tons of grain were exported from them per month.

- In 2022, sunseed areas in Germany reach 85,000 hectares (38,300 in 2021).

- The Ministry of Agriculture of France lowered their estimate for the wheat production in the country in 2022 by 1 million tons to 33.9 million tons (35.4 in 2021). The durum wheat production increased minimally to 1.4 million tons (1.6 in 2021). The first forecast for the corn production is at the level of 12.4 million tons (15.2 in 2021). Sunseed production is projected at 1.9 million tons (842,000). The forecast for the rapeseed production was raised by 0.3 million tons to 4.3 million tons (+1).

- On Thursday, Chicago funds were net buyers of 5,000 contracts of corn, 5,000 contracts of soybeans and 500 contracts of wheat.

- According to Statistics Canada, 421,200 tons of wheat were exported from Canada in the last reported week (394,600 a week earlier and -41% compared to the previous year). Since the beginning of the season, exports totaled 11.52 million tons (19.6). The export of durum reached 2.6 million tons (-57% compared to 2021), rapeseed exports were 5.1 million tons (10.5) and soybean exports reached 2.8 million tons (-21%). The total export of cereals and oil crops was 29.24 million tons (-43%).

- Deral lowers its forecast for the corn producton in the Brazilian state of Paraná to 14.5 million tons (-10% compared to 2021), with further reductions possible.

- Soybean processing in China fell to its lowest level in the last year and since the beginning of the month is 53.5% less than the beginning of August 2021. The decline is due to the negative margin of the processors. The demand for soyoil has also decreased by 50%. In August, soybean imports into China will be 6.2 million tons (7 in the initial forecast), and they will reach 5.5 million tons in September (6).

- Iran has bought 180,000 – 240,000 tons of wheat most likely from Russia at a price of 438 – 440 EUR/ton C&F and delivery within September – October.