Grains Market Overview 18.08.2021

Yesterday, CBOT SRW wheat futures prices fell sharply. Chicago corn and soybean futures prices fell moderately. In Paris, wheat and corn futures prices decreased notably, while rapeseed futures prices fluctuated.

The currency pair EUR/USD decreased to 1.1715. The price of US WTI crude oil fell to 66.59 USD/barrel.

Oil price continues to go down given the continuing fears about the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus. "These periodic adjustments are likely to be short-lived and the long-term trend will still be upward," said John Driscoll, chief strategist at JTD Energy Services Pte.

CBOT
Chicago Contract USD/mt +/-
Wheat December 275.03 -9.74
Corn December 221.84 -2.07
Soybeans November 500.27 -2.48
Soymeal December 400.03 +0.44

 

EURONEXT
Paris Contract EUR/mt +/-
Wheat September 245.75 -6.75
Corn June 216.00 -3.50
Rapeseed August 570.75 +0.75

 

Yesterday, CBOT SRW December wheat futures prices fell by 26 1/2 to close at $7.48 1/2 a bushel. In the absence of sufficient bullish news, prices normally fall, ie. speculators sell out. At the same time, corn and soybean markets are also not stable to expect support from there. It will rain in the northern United States, but that no longer matters when it comes to wheat. It could only potentially lead to a decrease in quality and yield. Demand for wheat from the Black Sea region remains strongly supported by the poor quality of French wheat. FranceAgriMer reports that there are serious concerns about the quality of the new French wheat production. Rainfall at the end of the season is the reason for the declines. Some warehouses report that only 35% of the stocks have a relative weight of over 760 kg/cubic meter.

Yesterday, Chicago December corn futures prices decreased by 5 1/4 cents to close at $5.63 1/2 a bushel. The price of oil has continued to fall and this is affecting corn and soybeans around the world. The growth of the US currency is also suppressing prices. Data from the first day of the Pro Farmer tour reported an average corn yield of 185.06 bushels/acre for the state of Ohio (167.7 in 2020) compared to 193 bushels/acre estimate in the August USDA forecast and 189.7 from cmdtyView. CmdtyView raised its forecast for the average corn yield in the United States in 2021 by 3.16 bushels/acre to 183.44 bushels/acre and the corn production is projected at 389.1 million tons (+7.7 million tons compared to the previous estimate). This level of production will be large enough to be consumed during the season and will increase the ending corn stocks in the United States to 40 million tons. We can expect that farmers will start more active sales with rising prices, but the quantities will not be huge, because they have already sold a significant part of their new production. Prices offered excellent opportunities and many farmers took advantage. Since the beginning of the season, 1.51 million tons of corn have been imported into the EU, which is 17% less than last year. This is the second consecutive season with a decline in EU corn imports. Corn prices in Dalian fell yesterday.

Yesterday, CBOT November soybean futures prices dropped by 6 3/4 cents to close at $13.61 1/2 a bushel. The USDA announced two additional export sales of soybeans from the United States - 132,000 tons to an unknown buyer and 198,000 tons to China. Dalian soybean prices rose to 19.07 USD/bushel. CmdtyView raised its forecast for the average soybean yield in the United States in 2021 by 0.52 bushels/acre to 51.55 bushels/acre (50 in the August USDA forecast). Thus, the soybean production will reach a total of 121.6 million tons. Soybean processing in the United States is very weak for a second month in a row - there is nothing to process. In May, processors stocked up, bought large quantities and raised prices. Now they are not on the market waiting for the new production. So far, sales of farmers are weak in anticipation of rising prices. Rapeseed price in Paris has risen significantly over the past two weeks.

It takes time to feel the shortage of wheat and corn around the world.