The currency pair EUR/USD remained almost unchanged at 1.1860. The price of US WTI crude oil fell to 75.16 USD/barrel.

The OPEC+ meeting ended prematurely without a deal, which plunged the cartel into crisis, while pushing up oil prices. The group was unable to agree on a date for its next meeting. Due to the suspension of negotiations, OPEC+ will not increase its production in August, depriving the world economy of vital additional supplies given the growing demand.

Yesterday, the Chicago Board of Trade was closed due to a holiday in the United States. Expectations for a good wheat and barley production in Europe have lowered prices significantly.

At the end of last week, the US authorities made urgent changes in the legislation, which will bring ethanol back into the game and there will be no decline in its consumption after the decision of the US Court. The market expected such a reaction and prices are unlikely to be significantly affected by the change.

In the United States, there is rainfall in the center and eastern parts and drought in the north and west remains. There is no rainfall in Canada. Data on the state of crops is expected to come out today. The reaction of the market is difficult to predict.

Given the drought in Canada, changes in German legislation and high oil prices, I expect support for rapeseed prices. In the event that the price difference between rapeseed and sunseed increases significantly, we will see a reaction in the market. On the other hand, India is expected to import more oil over the period of July-August - mainly palm oil, given the recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. At the same time, oil production is growing in Indonesia and Malaysia, as well as oil stocks. For now, palm oil prices are rising steadily, but the intensity of supplies will determine the market trend.

Yesterday, Egypt bought 240,000 tons of wheat, including 180,000 tons from Romania and 60,000 tons from Russia. In the previous two tenders, Romanian wheat completely dominated and now the prices from Romania, Russia and Ukraine were highly competitive. It should also be noted that Russian exports are subject to high export taxes.

SovEcon raised its forecast for the Russian wheat production in 2021 by 2.1 million tons to 84.6 million tons and wheat exports are projected at 38.4 million tons (+1.8).

In July, 2.5 million tons of corn will be exported from Brazil compared to 5 million tons in July 2020. Forecasts now indicate for a new corn production of about 87 million tons (100 million tons a year earlier) and corn exports are estimated at 20 million. tons (33). Domestic consumers of corn in Brazil now buy and stock up at high prices. The current quantities for export have been previously agreed and there will hardly be new ones at the current prices. Demand for corn from the United States and Ukraine could potentially increase, which will push soybean prices up.

However, if China do not enter the market with new massive purchases of corn, wheat and barley, prices would not change significantly.