Wheat and corn prices are rising on the physical market in Constanța, Algeria is once again looking for Black Sea origins, while constrained Ukrainian transport is shifting an increasing share of trade into 2027.
The Black Sea grain market is entering a new stage of the autumn season, with a visible divergence between international futures markets and physical trade in the region. While wheat, corn and rapeseed on Euronext are under pressure following the latest USDA estimates, physical prices for milling wheat and corn in Constanța are moving higher. At the same time, logistical constraints in Ukraine continue to prevent the new crop from quickly reaching the European market, while strong demand from Algeria and Turkey is keeping alternative trade flows active.
Constanța Shows a Firm Physical Market
Milling wheat in Constanța rises to €245/tonne, corn to €240/tonne. Feed barley adds €2 to €230/tonne, feed wheat to €232/tonne.Sunflower to €557/tonne.
International Futures Send a More Bearish Signal
On Euronext, December wheat falls to €241.00/tonne, its lowest level since August 25, while the weekly decline reaches €5.25/tonne, or 2.1%. December Chicago wheat also finishes the week lower at $7.25/bushel, down 1.2% over the week.
The main pressure comes from the latest WASDE, where global ending stocks came in slightly above market expectations. At the same time, USDA lowered its export forecasts for Russia and Ukraine because of the situation in the Black Sea. This creates a characteristic two-sided picture: a more comfortable global balance weighs on futures, while physical constraints on Black Sea exports support a stronger regional basis.
Constanța Corn Diverges From the Weaker Euronext Market
While physical corn in Constanța reaches €240/tonne, European futures are moving in the opposite direction. The Euronext contract declines to €263.75/tonne, after USDA raised its forecast for EU corn production in 2026 by 400,000 tonnes to 50.6 million tonnes.
This divergence shows that the local physical balance in the western Black Sea remains tighter than the broader picture reflected by the European futures market. Logistics and access to physical grain are increasingly determining regional prices.
France’s Weak Corn Crop Increases the Importance of the Black Sea
France is sending one of the most negative production signals for European corn. Only 26% of the crop was rated good or excellent as of September 7, compared with 27% a week earlier and 62% a year ago. This is the weakest rating since monitoring began in 2011.
The French Ministry of Agriculture expects production to decline by 35% from last year, while private estimates point to a reduction of around 50%, potentially to the lowest level since 1976. Harvest started significantly earlier than normal, with 9% of the area already harvested compared with a five-year average of 2%. The weaker French crop increases the importance of Romanian, Bulgarian and Ukrainian origins in the European balance, even as USDA expects slightly higher production in the EU overall.
Ukrainian Corn Remains Constrained by Logistics
One of the most important regional factors is the slow flow of Ukrainian corn toward the EU. A shortage of available rail wagons in the European Union and limited transshipment capacity on the Ukrainian side are restricting the potential for a sharp increase in deliveries through the end of 2026. This is reducing liquidity on the spot market and limiting the pressure that larger Ukrainian supply could otherwise place on regional prices.
The logistics issue is also important because it shows that physical grain availability alone is not enough to pressure the market. As long as transport capacity remains limited, part of Ukraine’s production cannot reach European buyers at the required pace.
Ukrainian Corn Trade Is Increasingly Shifting Into 2027
Activity in the futures and forward market after the New Year is already stronger. Ukrainian corn loaded into rail wagons for the European market is trading for January–March 2027 at €195–196/tonne, and for April–June at €197–198/tonne. This indicates that buyers and sellers are increasingly working around current logistical constraints through contracts for later delivery periods.
The market is therefore beginning to separate physical risk over time: spot availability remains more difficult to move, while trade for the first half of 2027 is more active and more liquid.
Turkey Remains the Most Important Buyer of Ukrainian Corn
During the period September 1–10, Ukraine exported 150,700 tonnes of corn, with the largest volume — 45,700 tonnes — shipped to Turkey. Among European destinations, Italy received 37,200 tonnes, Germany 19,000 tonnes, Cyprus 18,000 tonnes and the Netherlands 14,300 tonnes.
Turkey therefore remains a key stabilizing source of demand for Ukrainian corn while access to the EU is constrained by transport capacity. This is important for the western Black Sea region because Turkish demand diverts part of Ukrainian supply away from markets where it would otherwise compete directly with Romanian and Bulgarian origins.
Algeria Again Turns Attention to Black Sea Wheat
The new Algerian tender for soft milling wheat brings export demand back into focus. The nominal volume is 50,000 tonnes, but previous tenders show that actual purchases can be several times larger. In the previous tender, Algeria purchased between 540,000 and 720,000 tonnes at approximately $289–290/tonne C&F, with Romania and Bulgaria among the main suppliers.
This is significant for the entire western Black Sea basin. With Russian and Ukrainian logistics under pressure, regional origins such as Romania and Bulgaria have an opportunity to defend or expand their presence with major international buyers.
Rapeseed Is Pressured by Larger Global Supply
The November Euronext rapeseed contract declines to €550.75/tonne, after USDA significantly raised its forecast for global production in 2026/27 to 99.97 million tonnes. The increase is mainly driven by Australia and Russia, reducing concerns over global availability.
For Black Sea producers, this means the oilseed complex is currently receiving less support from international balances than the grain markets.
Ukraine Begins the Next Production Campaign Under Difficult Conditions
While the market is still absorbing the current harvest, Ukraine has already started sowing winter grains. As of September 16, 171,600 hectares had been planted, or just 3.3% of the forecast area. Winter wheat and triticale account for 145,300 hectares, winter barley for 13,000 hectares and winter rye for 13,300 hectares.
The campaign is beginning amid a combination of military risks, financial constraints and insufficient soil moisture in some areas. Dry weather is complicating decisions around optimal planting windows and adds another risk to future Ukrainian production. If these problems persist, the market may gradually begin paying more attention not only to current logistics constraints, but also to the outlook for the 2027 crop.
Winter Rapeseed Is Progressing Significantly Faster
The picture is much more advanced for rapeseed. As of September 16, Ukraine had planted 837,100 hectares of winter rapeseed, or 75.7% of the forecast area. The largest planted areas were reported in Kirovohrad region at 100,500 hectares, followed by Odesa at 98,200 hectares and Vinnytsia at 75,700 hectares.
The difference between the slow start for winter grains and the much more advanced rapeseed campaign shows that production risks for next season are not uniform across crops. The development of the autumn campaign and soil moisture availability will be important in shaping expectations for 2027 supply.
The Black Sea Market Is Increasingly Being Defined by Logistics, Not Only by Crop Size
The main conclusion for the region is that crop size remains important, but transport capacity is increasingly determining how much grain can actually reach the market. Constanța is showing firm physical wheat and corn prices, while Ukrainian corn is struggling to move toward the EU and part of the trade is already shifting into the first half of 2027.
At the same time, Algeria continues to create export opportunities for Romania and Bulgaria, Turkey remains a key buyer of Ukrainian corn, and Ukraine’s new planting campaign is beginning amid moisture shortages and continuing military risks. This leaves the Black Sea market in a delicate balance: global supply fundamentals limit the potential for a strong price rally, but regional logistics and active external demand continue to support physical prices and the importance of the western Black Sea basin.