Sharply lower Ukraine and Russia wheat offers drag Chicago down, even as China returns for a second day of soybean buying.

Wheat is leading broad losses Thursday, falling to three-to-four week lows as collapsing Black Sea FOB offers overshadow fresh Algerian and South Korean demand. Corn and soybeans are holding closer to unchanged, cushioned by a fresh Chinese soybean purchase and firm underlying corn export commitments even as this week's official sales data came in soft across all three grains.

Export Sales Disappoint Across the Board

USDA's weekly Export Sales report showed soft demand across the complex this morning. Wheat sales totaled 296,427 MT for the week of July 30, a four-week high but still 59.82% below the same week last year and on the low side of the 250,000 to 450,000 MT estimate range. Corn old-crop sales of 116,740 MT were a marketing-year low and 31.5% below last year, while soybean old-crop sales of just 32,157 MT were also a marketing-year low; new-crop soybean bookings of 903,920 MT marked a four-week low as well. The broad softness is a mildly bearish signal for all three grains heading into the final month of the 2025/26 marketing year.

Black Sea Attacks Continue as the EU Trims Its Wheat Crop

Russia struck a Ukrainian vessel loaded with wheat late Wednesday, the latest in a series of attacks on Black Sea shipping that continue to threaten export flows. Separately, Expana lowered its EU wheat crop estimate by 1.5 MMT to 126.8 MMT, tightening the supply picture even as Black Sea logistics remain the market's dominant near-term concern. The combination keeps a bullish undercurrent beneath wheat even as prices trade sharply lower today.

Fresh Wheat Demand: South Korea and Algeria Step In

A South Korean mill importer purchased 36,800 MT of US wheat on Thursday, while Algeria was reported to have bought up to 720,000 MT in Wednesday's tender at prices near $289 to $290 per MT CF. The demand is supportive for wheat and shows buyers stepping in on the recent price weakness, though it has not been enough to offset the broader Black Sea-driven selloff.

China Returns for a Second Straight Session of Soybean Buying

USDA confirmed a private export sale of 122,000 MT of soybeans to China this morning for 2026/27 delivery. Cash market sources indicate China has been actively securing large volumes of US soybeans for a second consecutive session, with expectations for considerably larger flash sales in the days ahead as the country works toward a reported 25 MMT commitment target; Chinese leader Xi is also expected to visit Washington in seven weeks. The demand is a supportive undercurrent for soybeans even as today's confirmed tonnage was modest relative to what traders are anticipating.

Midwest Rain Keeps a Lid on Corn and Soybeans

The NOAA 7-day QPF shows rain across much of Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio, with totals of 1 to 4 inches in some areas, following heavy rain over the past 24 hours in southern Iowa and northern Missouri. Precipitation into early next week favors eastern Iowa into the Great Lakes, with more scattered coverage across the southern Midwest and western Corn Belt, where temperatures remain above to much above normal. The favorable moisture is bearish for both corn and soybeans and is the main factor keeping price appreciation in check today.

Corn's Export Pace Still Running Ahead of USDA's Forecast

Despite today's soft headline sales number, cumulative corn export commitments are up 23% year-over-year against a USDA forecast calling for growth of just 16%, putting commitments at 103% of the full-year forecast versus a historical average of 97% at this point in the season. That pace suggests USDA's export estimate of 3.325 billion bushels may still be 25 to 50 million bushels too low, a supportive undercurrent for corn even as new-crop commitments of 380 million bushels are running behind last year's 464 million bushel pace.

Brazil's Ethanol Mandate Steps Up, Argentina's Ports Reopen

Brazil's mandated E32 ethanol blend, up from 30%, took effect August 1 despite legal challenges, reinforcing a structural demand story for corn-based ethanol that currently accounts for roughly 23 MMT, or 16%, of Brazil's corn crop and is expected to rise to 38 to 40 MMT over the next decade as capacity grows from about 13 billion liters annually toward 23 to 25 billion liters by 2035. Separately, Argentine ports resumed normal operations Wednesday after maritime pilots forced a 24-hour work stoppage the prior day, removing a brief logistics risk to South American shipments.

Crop Futures Wrap

WHEAT

Sep '26 CBOT wheat is at $6.29, down 13 1/4 cents, with Chicago SRW down 13 to 14 cents, KC HRW leading losses at down 17 to 18 cents, and MPLS spring wheat down 15 to 16 cents at midday. Sharply lower Ukrainian and Russian FOB offers are driving prices to three-to-four week lows even as those offers are unlikely to fully offset surging freight and insurance costs, while fresh Algerian and South Korean demand is only partially cushioning the slide.

CORN

Sep '26 corn is at $4.37 1/2, up 3/4 cent, with most contracts holding within a penny of unchanged; the national average cash corn price is up 1/4 cent at $4.07 1/4. Favorable Midwest rain is keeping gains in check, though export commitments running well ahead of USDA's forecast pace continue to lend underlying support.

SOYBEANS

Aug '26 soybeans are at $11.52, up 1/2 cent, even as most other contracts trade fractionally to a penny lower; the national average cash bean price is down 1/2 cent at $11.28 1/2, while soymeal is up 50 to 70 cents. A fresh 122,000 MT sale to China and expectations of considerably larger flash sales ahead are providing support, tempered by favorable growing-season rain across the Midwest.