Chicago wheat started Thursday’s session with the December 2025 CBOT contract trading just below $5.37½ per bushel, fractionally softer after settling at $5.37¾ on Wednesday. The wheat complex had finished midweek under mild pressure, with Chicago SRW closing from unchanged to 3 cents lower, KC HRW down 2 to 4 cents and Minneapolis spring wheat 4 to 5 cents weaker, even as open interest in SRW rose by 2,020 contracts. Export interest remains a key supporting factor, with a South Korean importer purchasing 30,300 tons of wheat in a tender and Algeria reported to have booked between 810,000 and 900,000 tons in its latest tender. In the background, traders are watching for fresh US export sales of 250,000 to 650,000 tons in the weekly report, while a Reuters survey pegs Canadian 2025 wheat production around 38.49 million tons ahead of the Statistics Canada update, reinforcing the sense of ample North American exportable supply.

Corn futures came into Thursday with a slightly firmer tone, as the December 2025 CBOT contract traded about 2 cents above Wednesday’s close, near $4.33½ per bushel, after settling at $4.31½ and dropping 6½ cents in the previous session. Cash values reflected the midweek pressure, with the national US cmdtyView corn average sliding 6½ cents to $3.98¾, while a 10,627-contract drop in corn open interest hinted at some long liquidation as traders booked profits. Record US ethanol production of 1.126 million barrels per day in the week ending 28 November, alongside a 543,000-barrel rise in stocks to 22.511 million, underscores strong industrial demand but also shows output briefly outpacing usage, even with ethanol exports up to 170,000 barrels per day. The market now looks to today’s delayed US export sales data for signs that corn bookings in a 0.8–2.5 million ton range can absorb part of the heavy US supply.

Soybeans opened Thursday on the front foot, with January 2026 CBOT futures trading roughly 3 to 5½ cents higher and hovering near $11.21¼ per bushel, recovering part of Wednesday’s 9 to 10 cent decline that left the contract at $11.15¾ at the close. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price fell 8¾ cents on Wednesday to $10.45, while soymeal futures softened by $0.20 to $1.70 and soyoil dropped 89 to 101 points, reflecting a weaker tone across the product complex. Open interest in soybeans rose by 7,026 contracts, concentrated in the March delivery month, signalling fresh positioning even as daily USDA export flashes remain limited. Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated that China remains in “perfect cadence” to complete a promised 12-million-ton soybean purchase program by the end of February, but confirmed sales in USDA’s daily reporting system are just over 2.25 million tons so far. Traders are watching today’s export sales report for 0.6–2 million tons in total soybean bookings, 200,000–450,000 tons of soymeal and 5,000–25,000 tons of soyoil, while also eyeing Statistics Canada’s canola production estimate near 21.25 million tons for further signals on global oilseed balance.

Ukraine sits at the heart of this week’s macro narrative after the Ukrainian Grain Association projected that grain and oilseed exports could reach 49 million tons in the 2025/26 marketing season, up from 46.7 million tons last year. The outlook assumes wheat harvest at about 22.5 million tons with potential exports of 16.5 million tons, a 24% jump in corn output to 32 million tons with 25 million tons available for shipment, and barley production near 4.9 million tons, down 13%, with exports around 2.3 million tons. Sunflower seed output is seen at 11.5 million tons versus 12.8 million last year. These numbers highlight Ukraine’s continued role as a key Black Sea supplier, but the association warns that Russian strikes on energy infrastructure, ports and railways could still disrupt logistics and prevent the country from fully realizing its export potential.

Price action and positioning across global futures underline a cautious but not uniformly bearish backdrop. Overnight, wheat was fractionally higher in SRW and HRW, corn slipped three-quarters of a cent and soybeans gained 2¼ cents, with soymeal up $1.60 and soyoil fractionally lower. For the week so far, wheat is flat in SRW, up 2 cents in HRW and unchanged in spring wheat, corn is down 5 cents, soybeans are off nearly 20 cents, soymeal has lost $6.50 and soyoil is down 0.43 cents. On a year-to-date basis, nearby futures remain in the red for wheat and corn, but soybeans are up 12%, soymeal is slightly positive and soyoil has surged nearly 30%, a reflection of robust demand in vegetable oils. In China, January 2026 agricultural futures are firmer for corn but weaker for soybeans, soymeal, soyoil and palm oil, while Malaysian palm oil fell 47 ringgit overnight to 4,106, trading near multi-month lows amid comfortable stocks. US exchange data show open interest rising in SRW wheat, soybeans and soyoil and falling in HRW wheat, corn and soymeal, signalling fresh capital drifting toward Chicago wheat and parts of the oilseed complex even as some longs step back from corn.

Weather and climate teleconnections continue to act as major risk factors for production across hemispheres. In North America, repeated cold air outbreaks will keep the main storm track shunted into the far southern US through mid-next week, creating a relatively quiet pattern for most winter wheat regions. In East Asia, warm and dry conditions across major Chinese winter wheat belts into mid-December remain broadly favourable for the dormant crop. Over Africa, cool and wet conditions across South Africa for the next one to two weeks are set to benefit early maize development and support regional feed grain balances. At the same time, a still-negative Indian Ocean Dipole, even after some weakening in November, is expected to sustain a drier bias from Argentina into southern Brazil as long as it persists, directly impacting key corn and soybean areas and adding a layer of meteorological uncertainty to global supply projections.

South American weather is increasingly central to price discovery as crops move through early development stages. In Argentina, forecasts point to hot and predominantly dry conditions for the foreseeable future, punctuated only by a patchy frontal passage this weekend into early next week. Recent patterns of heavy rains sandwiched between long dry spells have already created highly variable conditions for developing corn and soybeans, and a sustained return to heat and dryness raises downside yield risks that are drawing growing attention from global traders. In Brazil, a stalled front over central regions is finally producing more meaningful showers than models had suggested in recent weeks, offering some relief to soybean fields that are beginning to flower under a backdrop of limited soil moisture. Further south, soil conditions remain generally adequate but a marked drop in rainfall frequency is starting a slow drying process that could become more problematic if it continues over the next couple of weeks, especially given the negative IOD backdrop. Nearby Paraguay is expected to see moderate and largely favourable conditions over the next one to two weeks, supporting its own corn and soybean outlook and slightly offsetting regional stress.

Australia, another major exporter of wheat and rapeseed, is heading into a period of widespread warmth and dryness that is expected to persist for at least the next two to three weeks. Temperatures are set to build over the next 10 days before any temporary moderation, while rainfall is forecast to be scarce across most key cropping zones. This pattern should help farmers complete the wheat and rapeseed harvest efficiently and limit quality downgrades from late-season rains, but it also marks a shift toward drier conditions that could have implications for soil moisture going into the next planting cycle and for pasture and feed availability into 2026. As global markets weigh comfortable near-term supplies, traders will be watching closely to see whether this warm, dry trend extends far enough into the new year to alter next season’s planting and yield potential.

Demand-side signals from the energy and feed complex are also shaping sentiment. The latest US Department of Energy data confirm that ethanol plants ramped output to a record 1.126 million barrels per day in the week ending 28 November, a 13,000-barrel increase week on week, even as stocks climbed 2.5% to 22.511 million barrels. Exports rose by 48,000 barrels per day to 170,000, but that was not enough to absorb the extra production alongside a 28,000-barrel decline in refiner inputs. For corn markets, these figures underscore strong industrial usage but also hint at the risk of periodic price pressure if rising ethanol inventories are not matched by continued export growth or domestic blending demand, particularly in an environment where futures are already down nearly 6% year to date.

China-centred trade flows remain one of the most closely watched storylines for soybeans and feed grains. After months of subdued activity following a tense tariff war, at least six US soybean cargoes are scheduled to load at Gulf Coast terminals for China through mid-December, with a seventh vessel already en route – the first such shipment since May. These are the first physical deliveries linked to a broader package of purchases Beijing indicated after talks between Presidents Trump and Xi in South Korea in late October, and they have eased some fears that recent reported deals could be cancelled or switched to cheaper Brazilian origin. Even so, benchmark CBOT soybean futures fell for a third straight session on Wednesday amid concern that China will fall short of its 12-million-ton target by the end of this month. USDA has confirmed only 2.25 million tons in Chinese purchases so far for 2025/26, while analysts believe the real number may be closer to 3–4 million tons once smaller or undisclosed sales are included – still well below pre-trade-war levels. In parallel, US sorghum shipments to China have restarted for the first time since March, with one vessel loading at a Texas Gulf terminal and another due to load in the Pacific Northwest next week, signalling a cautious recovery in broader US feed grain flows to China.

Russia is emerging as an increasingly powerful player in the oilseed and feed markets, with record meal exports and changing domestic dynamics. The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) expects Russian exports of high-protein meals from sunflower, rapeseed and soybeans to reach a record 4.4 million tons in the 2025/26 agricultural year, up from 3.9 million tons last season, on the back of a combined oilseed harvest of 32–33 million tons that would itself be a record. Sunflower output is forecast at 16.6–16.8 million tons, rapeseed at 5.43 million tons and soybeans at 9.35 million tons, enough to make Russia fully self-sufficient in soybeans and soybean meal in its European part for the first time. That self-sufficiency is generating a significant surplus that must find export outlets, but a 20% duty on soybean exports means much of the excess is likely to leave the country as meal, forcing domestic prices below export parity to stay competitive. Soybean prices have already fallen across Russian regions and dropped below flax values, with reports from the Far East of levels under 25 rubles per kilogram amid weak Chinese buying and high internal transport costs, putting severe pressure on local producers.

Broader Russian agricultural data and Brazil’s animal protein outlook add further texture to feed grain and oilseed demand projections. Rosstat reports that Russian agricultural organizations reduced grain sales by 15.8% year on year to 54.6 million tons in the first ten months of 2025, even though October sales were up 4.3% versus a year earlier, suggesting the pace of commercialization is lagging despite large crops. By contrast, livestock and poultry sales, milk production and egg output all rose in the same period, pointing to steady or growing domestic feed demand that must be balanced against export ambitions. In Brazil, industry group ABPA expects chicken exports to rise as much as 3.4% in 2026 to 5.5 million tons, with production up 2% to 15.6 million tons, while pork exports are seen rising 4% and egg exports 12.5%, all of which imply continued strong consumption of corn and oilseed meal in one of the world’s largest feed markets. At the same time, the Amazonian state of Pará has postponed the deadline for mandatory cattle tracking from 2026–2027 out to 2030, delaying full implementation of a key deforestation-control tool and raising questions about the pace of sustainability measures in Brazil’s massive beef sector – a factor that could influence future land use, pastures competing with crop area, and, by extension, long-term grain and oilseed production decisions.