E15 momentum and biofuel optimism underpin corn and soybeans while global weather risks keep volatility elevated.

Chicago grains are firmer to start Friday, led by a sharp rally in winter wheat, while corn and soybeans trade solidly higher on biofuel policy momentum and evolving South American weather patterns. Traders are positioning ahead of month-end price discovery for crop insurance and reassessing export flows, Black Sea risk, and oilseed trade shifts.

Wheat is shooting higher across all three markets Friday morning, with winter contracts leading the advance. The market is extending Thursday’s late-session strength as concerns persist over dryness in key western Plains areas despite an approaching precipitation band. Limited moisture in parts of the Southern Plains and ongoing drought expansion continue to support a weather premium in Chicago.

In Europe, France’s soft wheat rating slipped to 84% good/excellent, down 4 percentage points from the previous week after prolonged rainfall and flooding. Although still above last year’s level, the deterioration introduces uncertainty around EU supply and reinforces the supportive undertone for global wheat values.

US weekly wheat export sales totaled 242,964 MT for old crop, a six-week low and down 9.68% from the same week last year, though new-crop sales at 107,015 MT exceeded expectations and marked a marketing-year high for 2026/27. The split between weaker nearby demand and stronger forward buying suggests improved longer-term interest even as spot demand remains uneven.

Additional trade flow developments are drawing attention. Argentina reportedly sold 40,000 metric tons of wheat to the US on competitive pricing, highlighting shifting Atlantic Basin dynamics. Meanwhile, renewed strikes on port infrastructure in Ukraine underscore ongoing logistical risks in the Black Sea corridor, a factor that can quickly reprice global wheat risk.

Corn futures are trading 2 to 5 cents higher early Friday after building momentum into Thursday’s close. Weekly export sales of 698,000 tons were below the prior week but Mexico remained a steady buyer at 385,000 tons, reinforcing baseline demand. Overnight South Korean tenders totaling 201,000 MT add further support to feed grain sentiment.

Biofuel policy remains central to corn’s direction. Agriculture Secretary Rollins reiterated that Congress must pass year-round E15 legislation, reinforcing political pressure to expand higher-ethanol blends. Continued debate around refinery exemptions and Renewable Volume Obligations keeps ethanol-linked demand in focus, underpinning corn despite mixed export data.

Soybeans are up 3 to 6 cents early Friday following Thursday’s modest decline. The EPA’s review of 2026 biofuel mandates and expectations for increased soybean oil use continue to support the oil complex, while recent RIN generation data point to robust biomass-based diesel activity. Strength in soybean oil futures is helping offset delivery pressure in the nearby contracts.

South American weather remains a key driver. In Brazil, rainfall is shifting north, leaving central and southern areas drier and raising concerns for newly planted safrinha corn if moisture does not improve. In Argentina, recent rains have improved moisture coverage to 73% favorable for soybeans and stabilized crop estimates, tempering extreme bullishness but maintaining yield uncertainty.

China’s decision to halt tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal adds to a broader recalibration in oilseed trade flows, potentially influencing crush margins and feed demand in Asia. Meanwhile, Mississippi River grain shipments rose to 500,000 tons last week as barge rates declined, improving export competitiveness for US corn and soybeans heading into early March.

Mar ’26 CBOT Wheat closed Thursday at $5.71 3/4, up 6 cents, and is currently up 17 3/4 cents. Early strength is driven by Plains moisture uncertainty, softer French crop ratings, and ongoing Black Sea logistics risk.

Mar ’26 Corn closed at $4.33 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents, and is currently up 4 1/2 cents. Support stems from steady export demand, overnight South Korean buying, and renewed E15 legislative momentum.

Mar ’26 Soybeans closed at $11.47 3/4, down 1/2 cent, and are currently up 4 1/4 cents. Biofuel policy support, firm soybean oil prices, and evolving South American weather patterns are setting the tone at the start of Friday’s session.