Chicago wheat firmed Thursday with late-session strength in SRW, corn closed higher on steady export interest and biofuel optimism, while soybeans edged lower despite strong soy oil performance. Traders balanced mixed USDA export sales, Black Sea competitiveness shifts, and evolving South American weather risks.

Wheat futures were mixed but found support in Chicago, where SRW contracts gained 4 to 6 cents in the front months. While weekly old-crop export sales of 242,964 MT marked a six-week low and were down 9.68% year-on-year, new-crop sales at 107,015 MT exceeded expectations and posted a marketing-year high for 2026/27. The divergence suggests near-term demand softness but improving forward interest, underpinning deferred contracts.

Additional global tender activity reinforced demand signals. Saudi Arabia issued a 655,000 MT wheat tender, and Turkey booked 350,000 MT, keeping international buying active

These tenders help stabilize global wheat values even as Russian competitiveness narrows.

SovEcon trimmed Russia’s 2025/26 wheat export forecast by 0.3 MMT to 45.4 MMT, citing weaker price competitiveness versus EU origins

With Romanian and Russian 12.5% wheat trading at similar levels, Russia has largely lost its traditional discount, limiting export momentum and capping the upside for Black Sea offers.

Weather remains a key influence. A band of precipitation is expected across parts of the Southern Plains, though key western areas may miss meaningful moisture

That pattern offers limited relief to drought-stricken winter wheat, supporting Chicago contracts while leaving HRW under relative pressure.

Corn futures added 1 to 3 cents at the close, building on midweek strength. Weekly export sales totaled 682,804 MT, down 29% from the previous week but still 1.1% above last year, with Mexico and Japan leading purchases. Although the figure came in below trade estimates, steady international demand and fresh private sales to Japan provided late-session support.

USDA confirmed a private sale of 178,000 MT of corn to Japan, largely for 2026/27 delivery, reinforcing forward demand visibility. Additional South Korean tenders, including 135,000 MT purchased and another 210,000 MT issued, further underpin feed grain demand. Ethanol production held at 1.113 million barrels per day, with stocks at 25.646 million barrels. Stability in output supports baseline corn demand, while the EPA’s submission of its 2026 Renewable Volume Obligations to the White House signals progress toward policy clarity that could bolster biofuel-linked consumption.

Soybeans closed slightly lower despite strength in soy oil, which rallied another 91 to 109 points

The EPA’s review of 2026 biofuel mandates, including potential shifts of previously waived blending obligations to larger refineries, remains supportive for soy oil and crush margins. However, early-session weakness was tied to reports that US–China talks may focus more on optics than substantive trade progress, tempering bullish sentiment. USDA reported weekly soybean export sales of 407,086 MT, just 0.92% below the same week last year, with Egypt and Germany leading buyers and only 75,500 MT to China.

Soybean meal sales at 269,590 MT landed within estimates, while soybean oil sales were minimal, reflecting mixed demand signals across the complex.

South American weather remains pivotal. Brazil’s Center-West and South are turning drier, raising concerns for safrinha corn pollination if rainfall does not improve, while Argentina continues to see spotty showers and below-normal precipitation. The pattern supports corn and soybeans by sustaining yield uncertainty, even as northern Pampas regions remain warm and wet.

Mar ’26 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.71 3/4, up 6 cents, supported by stronger SRW performance, active global tenders, and better-than-expected new-crop export sales. Weak old-crop demand capped gains, but tightening Russian competitiveness and Plains moisture uncertainty provided a firm undertone.

Mar ’26 Corn closed at $4.33 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents, buoyed by private export sales to Japan, steady international tender activity, and stable ethanol output. Although weekly export sales slowed from the prior week, ongoing demand and biofuel policy progress lent support.

Mar ’26 Soybeans closed at $11.47 3/4, down 1/2 cent, pressured by trade uncertainty despite supportive biofuel developments and firm soy oil prices. Mixed export sales and limited Chinese buying tempered the bullish influence of South American weather risks and strengthening crush margins.