This week’s trading was a study in contrasts: wheat rallied strongly on regional export disruptions and short-covering, soybeans were lifted by record U.S. crush and aggressive fund buying, while corn traded in a narrower range as acreage signals and large South American supplies limited sustained upside. Traders ended the week focused on export flows, biofuel quota chatter, and weather risk across South America and the Black Sea.

Argentine port disruptions were the week’s most immediate price catalyst, halting shipments from Rosario and creating near-term loading congestion that supported both U.S. wheat and soybean meal values by tightening available exportable supplies. The strike’s operational effect pushed dealers to mark up bids for nearby cargoes and helped trigger a strong short-covering move in Chicago wheat as position-squaring accelerated into the close.

Black Sea dynamics remained a dual-edged factor. Improved spring-crop prospects and higher Russian crop forecasts from SovEcon and IKAR capped the rally’s longer-term scope, while continuing shipping difficulties and episodic strikes near ports (Taman/Sea of Azov reports) kept episodic support in play — a pattern that left wheat susceptible to fast reversals but biased higher on logistics headlines.

U.S. USDA signals and market positioning added texture to the moves. Armchair acreage estimates released around the Ag Outlook discussions pushed trader thinking toward reduced U.S. corn and wheat area and larger soybean area, feeding a narrative of tighter U.S. corn/wheat supply but expanding soybean acreage — a mix that supported short-term wheat strength while capping sustained corn gains as Brazil’s large crop outlook reasserted influence. The positioning backdrop — notably aggressive short covering in wheat and rising managed-money longs in soybeans — amplified intraday swings.

Domestic data were decisive for oilseeds. January’s NOPA crush beat forecasts, marking a record January throughput and lifting soybean crush-derived demand expectations just as EPA biofuel quota talk surfaced; that combination underpinned strong soymeal and soyoil sentiment despite rising soyoil stocks that temper the immediacy of any rally. Funds responded by adding sizable net long positions in soybeans, reinforcing the bullish tone into the week’s close.

South American weather and logistics continued to set the supply tone for grains. Brazil’s soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting lagged seasonal norms in parts, with heavy rains in Mato Grosso slowing fieldwork even as national production projections remained large; Argentina showed mixed rainfall that helped some areas but left late-planted corn and soybeans vulnerable, keeping regional production risk elevated and price sensitivity to localized reports high. These split conditions helped explain why corn lacked a sustained rally despite U.S. acreage talk.

Freight and internal U.S. logistics improved late in the week, notably a surge in Mississippi River barge shipments, which supported export movement and helped prevent a deeper corn sell-off even as ethanol inventories rose. Better physical flows reduced one immediate layer of export risk and allowed export demand fundamentals to carry more weight in price discovery.

Policy and macro headlines added intermittent volatility. EPA movement on 2026 biofuel blending quotas created upside risk for soybean oil and indirectly for corn via ethanol linkages, while broader tariff and trade rhetoric (port exports to China, U.S. trade frictions) continued to cloud the outlook for bulk agricultural shipments and demand patterns. The policy calendar and export sales prints remain obvious near-term market-moving items.

Technicals and positioning closed the loop on the week. Commitment of Traders showed sizeable short-covering in Chicago and KC wheat and significant managed-money buying in soybeans, which magnified the effect of supply shocks and data surprises. With funds reducing shorts in wheat and adding longs in soybeans, price moves proved sharper than underlying fundamental shifts alone would suggest.

Crop Futures Wrap

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed the week at $5.73 1/2, up strongly for the session and up roughly 24 3/4 cents on the week. The rally was driven by Argentine export paralysis, concentrated short covering, and export positioning — forces that dominated despite structurally comfortable global stocks and improved Russian crop outlooks.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn closed the week at $4.27 1/2, finishing modestly higher on Friday but with mixed weekly direction as USDA acreage signals (lower U.S. area) were offset by large South American production projections and rising ethanol stocks. Solid export bookings and improved river logistics provided support, keeping the market balanced.

Soybeans: Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans closed the week at $11.37 1/2, finishing the week with gains driven by record NOPA crush, firm weekly export inspections and strong managed-money buying. Soybean oil and biofuel quota discussion added a bullish demand overlay, though growing oil stocks and mixed Brazilian export revisions temper the extent of any sustained rally.

What to watch next: export-sales prints and FGIS inspections, any extension of Argentine port delays, March–May weather across the Black Sea and Argentina, and the EPA biofuel quota decision — each can trigger outsized moves given current positioning and the thin margin between comfortable global stocks and localized supply stress.