Core Market Drivers

Wheat futures are trading lower Tuesday morning after failing to extend gains earlier in the week. Chicago SRW futures began the session in the red, with Mar ’26 CBOT wheat last closed at $5.69 1/2, down 4 cents, and currently off another 1 1/2 cents. Weakness reflects ongoing profit-taking and softer technical momentum despite solid export flows.

Export inspections for wheat provided constructive fundamental support. USDA reported 535,113 MT shipped in the week ending February 19, up 41.57% week-over-week and 37.37% above the same week last year. Marketing year shipments total 18.24 MMT, up 19.41% year-on-year, underscoring steady global demand even as futures ease.

Corn futures are fractionally mixed early Tuesday after closing steady on Monday. Mar ’26 CBOT corn finished at $4.27 1/2 and is currently up 1/2 cent. Strong export momentum continues to anchor prices despite broad commodity softness.

Weekly corn inspections reached 2.05 MMT for the week ending February 19, the second-largest total of the marketing year and 71.91% above last year’s level. Japan, Mexico, and South Korea were top destinations, reinforcing robust global demand. Marketing year shipments are now 45.64% above last year’s pace, providing a supportive demand backdrop.

USDA also confirmed a private sale of 125,000 MT of corn to Colombia, adding incremental support. However, Brazil’s soybean harvest progress reached 30% of planted area as of February 19, while safrinha corn planting is 50% complete, though still lagging last year’s pace. Large South American production expectations continue to cap sustained upside.

Soybeans are trading 3 to 4 cents lower in the front months this morning after Monday’s losses. Mar ’26 soybeans closed at $11.34 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents, and are currently down another 4 cents. Weak export inspections and tariff uncertainty weigh on sentiment.

USDA’s FGIS reported 669,865 MT of soybean shipments for the week ending February 19, down 44.9% from the previous week and 23.8% below last year. Marketing year exports now total 25.033 MMT, running 32.2% behind last year’s pace. China accounted for 345k tons of the weekly total, but overall volumes highlight competitiveness challenges relative to Brazil.

Trade policy headlines added fresh uncertainty. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the President cannot use IEEPA authority for tariff purposes, prompting indications that alternative tariff measures could be implemented under other trade statutes. Markets remain cautious as tariff rhetoric continues to cloud agricultural trade flows.

South American weather remains a defining variable. Brazil’s harvest progress has improved but remains behind last year, and moderate rainfall is needed to support subsoil moisture for the safrinha crop. Argentina faces isolated dryness this week following earlier stabilization rains, leaving soybeans vulnerable as February closes with below-normal precipitation.

Vegetable oil markets are mixed. Malaysian palm oil prices are expected to range between 4,000 and 4,300 ringgit in March, supported by improved Indian demand but capped by rising Chinese soybean crushing and soy oil exports. Indonesia’s January palm oil exports fell 14.41% month-over-month, adding another layer of oilseed complexity.

Crop Futures Wrap

Wheat:
Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.69 1/2, down 4 cents, and is currently down 1 1/2 cents. Strong export inspections are offset by profit-taking and improved Russian supply outlooks.

Corn:
Mar ’26 CBOT corn closed at $4.27 1/2, unchanged, and is currently up 1/2 cent. Robust export inspections and a confirmed sale to Colombia underpin near-term support.

Soybeans:
Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans closed at $11.34 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents, and are currently down 4 cents. Weaker export flows and tariff uncertainty weigh on sentiment despite stable South American weather patterns.