Core Market Drivers

Wheat futures remained in rally mode to round out the week. Chicago SRW futures posted gains of 13 to 14 cents at Friday’s close, with March up 24 3/4 cents on the week. Mar ’26 CBOT wheat settled at $5.73 1/2, up 14 cents on the day, reflecting sustained buying momentum and short covering.

Despite Friday’s price strength, weekly export sales data were softer. USDA reported 287,974 MT of wheat sold in the week ending 2/12, down 40.99% from the prior week and 45.94% below the same week last year. Mexico, the Philippines and the Dominican Republic were the top buyers, underscoring continued demand but at a slower pace.

Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds trimming 17,618 contracts from their net short position in Chicago wheat, reducing the net short to 68,037 contracts. In KC wheat, funds cut 8,887 contracts, shrinking the net short to 10,609 contracts. This aggressive short covering helped amplify the late-week rally.

Weather outlooks remain mixed for U.S. wheat. The next week is expected to be drier across much of the HRW belt, while NOAA’s 90-day CPC outlook suggests warmer temperatures and dryness through May. Meanwhile, French soft wheat ratings slipped to 88% good/excellent, down three points week-over-week, reflecting flood concerns in parts of France.

Corn futures ended Friday up 1 to 4 cents across the front months, though March remains down 4 1/4 cents for the week. Mar ’26 CBOT corn closed at $4.27 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents. Spillover support from wheat gains and firm export demand helped steady the market.

USDA export sales showed 1.47 MMT of old crop corn booked in the week of 2/12, slightly below last week but 1.1% above the same week last year. Japan was the largest buyer at 381,500 MT, followed by Mexico and Taiwan. South Korea also purchased 132,000 MT in a tender, reinforcing solid international demand.

Soybeans closed 3 to 4 cents lower in the nearby contracts, with Mar ’26 settling at $11.37 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents. Despite the modest daily loss, March gained 4 1/2 cents for the week. Soymeal rose $5 to $5.30 on Friday, while soy oil fell 70 to 75 points but remained up 184 points for the week.

Export sales for soybeans were notably strong. Old crop bookings totaled 798,216 MT for the week ending 2/12, up sharply from the prior week and 66.2% above last year. China accounted for 415,500 MT, while Egypt and Japan were also key buyers. Meal sales exceeded expectations at 480,937 MT, underscoring firm feed demand.

CFTC data showed managed money adding 40,463 contracts to their net long soybean position, lifting the total to 163,611 contracts. The aggressive fund buying highlights confidence in oilseed demand dynamics, particularly as biofuel blending mandates remain under policy review.

Broader commodity and policy headlines added volatility. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the President cannot use IEEPA authority for tariff purposes, initially triggering risk-off sentiment. However, subsequent tariff rhetoric reintroduced uncertainty. Meanwhile, EPA data showed fewer renewable blending credits generated in January, while ethanol and biodiesel RIN markets remain focused on upcoming Renewable Volume Obligation decisions.

Logistics also turned supportive. Mississippi River grain shipments surged to 474,000 tons for the week ending Feb. 14, up sharply from 266,000 tons the prior week. Corn barge shipments rose 121.8% week-over-week, and soybean shipments increased 54.5%, signaling improved export movement despite rising barge rates.

Crop Futures Wrap

Wheat:
Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.73 1/2, up 14 cents. Strong short covering, export positioning and tightening global stock estimates drove a powerful weekly rally despite softer weekly sales.

Corn:
Mar ’26 CBOT corn settled at $4.27 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents. Solid export bookings, improved river logistics and wheat spillover support offset mixed ethanol and acreage signals.

Soybeans:
Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans closed at $11.37 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents. Strong weekly export sales and fund buying supported the broader oilseed complex, even as soy oil corrected into the weekend.