Core market drivers

South American weather set the tone across the complex. Brazil’s Center-West and parts of the Pampas showed drying trends that raised safrinha pollination risk, while Argentina’s showers remained patchy and below-normal in many areas; that combination sustained yield uncertainty and was supportive for both corn and soybeans.

U.S. biofuel policy advanced materially this week as the EPA moved draft 2026 blending guidance toward White House review, reviving talk of stronger Renewable Volume Obligations and year-round E15 momentum. That policy progress anchored ethanol-linked corn demand and strengthened soybean oil as a feedstock — a bullish element for both corn and oilseeds.

Export flows were a mixed but constructive story. USDA weekly inspections and export-sales runs showed continued buying by Mexico, Japan and others, and private corn sales to Japan and tenders from South Korea provided concrete demand signals; those flows helped underpin corn futures despite weekly churn.

Wheat faced offsetting pressures: new-crop U.S. sales hit marketing-year highs while old-crop weekly sales fell to multi-week lows, leaving near-term physical demand soft even as forward buying lifted deferred contracts. That split left wheat vulnerable to range trade even as some SRW contracts found late-week strength.

Black Sea logistics and shifting Russian competitiveness remained a moderating factor for global wheat. Storms, ice and attacks on port infrastructure in Ukraine kept freight risk elevated and limited flows, yet analysts reported narrowing price differentials between Russian and EU origins, which capped a strong rally in world wheat values.

Global tender activity kept international buying visible. Large tenders — including Saudi and Turkish purchases and Algeria’s big tender — sustained a supportive bid for wheat values overseas and helped blunt nearby weakness in U.S. winter wheats. Those tenders are a reminder that destination demand can re-accelerate quickly.

Freight and logistics notes were mixed but noteworthy: Mississippi River barge rates eased and inspected shipments remained large, improving U.S. export competitiveness, while localized disruptions (protests at Brazilian terminals, port strike threats) reminded markets that physical flow risks can swing quickly. The net is a modestly supportive backdrop for U.S. corn/soy exports near term.

Positioning and technicals showed cautious fund behavior and limited delivery pressure into notice days. Open interest patterns and the lack of significant deliveries against first-notice dates suggested spot liquidation in some winter wheat contracts but not a disorderly liquidation, leaving the market primed for follow-through from fundamentals rather than a forced technical unwind.

Crop futures wrap

Wheat — Mar ’26 CBOT Wheat: weekly direction modestly higher from $5.69 1/2 (Mon) to $5.71 3/4 (Thu close); the week was marked by mixed nearby demand (old-crop sales a six-week low) offset by strong new-crop bookings and tightening Black Sea flows that supported deferred contracts. Weather risk in the western Plains and active international tenders provided the primary support while narrowing Russian discounts limited larger rallies.

Corn — Mar ’26 Corn: moved higher over the week from $4.27 1/2 (Mon) to $4.33 1/4 (Thu close); gains were driven by steady export inspections/sales (including private sales to Japan), continued ethanol production and the prospect of stronger blending mandates. South American dryness added a bullish weather premium that reinforced near-term price support.

Soybeans — Mar ’26 Soybeans: edged up from $11.34 1/4 (Mon) to $11.47 3/4 (Thu close); the complex was bolstered by soybean-meal strength, a rally in soy oil (partly driven by biofuel expectations), and spotty Argentine rains that left yield risk on the table. Limited Chinese buying and cargo cancellations to India kept upside measured, but biofuels and South American weather sustained an underlying bid.