Chicago Opening Prices for Monday, July 14, 2025 (September 2025 contracts):

• Wheat: $5.54 ½ per bushel

• Corn: $3.99 ¼ per bushel

• Soybeans: $10.12 ½ per bushel

Wheat: Cautious Optimism Dampened by Supply Risks

Chicago wheat futures opened Monday at $5.54 ½, following a Thursday close 7 ½ cents higher. However, early Friday trading saw prices dip 3 ¼ cents amid uncertainty over global harvest progress. U.S. wheat export sales reached 567,823 metric tons, more than double the volume from the same week last year, with South Korea, Japan, and Mexico leading purchases. However, domestic production forecasts remain tight. Analysts expect all-wheat output to drop to 1.907 billion bushels, especially as winter wheat acreage contracts. Internationally, Russia’s slow harvest and terminal shortages weigh on the Black Sea supply chain, while Strategie Grains held the EU’s soft wheat output estimate steady at 130.7 MMT.

Corn: Strong Demand Meets Supply Uncertainty

Corn began the day flat at $3.99 ¼ per bushel. On Thursday, prices were mixed, with nearby July contracts underperforming. Still, strong export data helped support the market. The USDA confirmed an 8-week high in old crop corn bookings—1.262 million metric tons—while new crop sales added 888,562 MT. Mexico and Japan remain the primary buyers. Domestic outlooks show a possible 75 million bushel drop in production due to lower acreage, while Brazil’s output estimate was revised slightly up to 132.3 MMT. U.S. weather forecasts remain mixed, with Midwestern rain benefiting some dry zones, but Northern Plains crops are increasingly stressed.

Soybeans: Exports Surge, But Market Eyes Weather and Trade Barriers

Soybean futures opened at $10.12 ½, having gained 3 ½ cents Thursday but slipping 5 cents in early Friday trading. Export sales hit a four-month high of 503,027 metric tons, more than tripling last year’s same-week total. However, weather and trade developments cast shadows. Analysts expect a modest 7 mbu reduction in new crop output due to acreage downgrades. Brazilian soy output was nudged slightly higher to 169.4 MMT. Yet heavy rains in China’s northern regions and heat in Xinjiang could disrupt key crop yields, with domestic demand weakening due to shortened shelf life of soy-based products.

Key Global Grain Market Headlines Driving Today’s Session

Persistent concerns around global wheat supply are rising as Russia’s July exports fall to their lowest levels since 2008. Delays in harvest, slow port arrivals, and low prices have led to a supply squeeze, especially in Black Sea terminals. Traders report demurrage charges at Russian ports as ships await grain. Farmers, squeezed by a strong rouble and global price pressures, are holding back inventory in hopes of future price increases.

Meanwhile, Western Australia forecasts a sharp drop in wheat output this season, projecting 9.4 million tons versus 12.5 million tons last year. Poor rainfall in key growing areas is cited as the primary cause. The state’s grain crop forecast stands at 19.3 million tons overall, although recent weather improvements may slightly mitigate the damage.

Ukraine has harvested just 2.6 million tons of grain and legumes as of July 11—down dramatically from 8.4 million tons at the same point in 2024. Both wheat and barley volumes are sharply lower year-on-year. Despite favorable weather in the Black Sea region recently, regional dryness in Ukraine remains a concern over the next 10–15 days.

In Brazil, soybean exports are projected to surge to 11.93 million tons this July, up from 9.6 million tons a year ago. Soymeal exports are also increasing, reaching 2.19 million tons. However, corn exports are expected to decline slightly, with July volumes seen at 4.34 million tons. Brazilian soybean production for the 2024/25 season has been slightly revised down to 169.49 million tons.

In China, weather volatility is posing risks to several key crops. Heavy rainfall in the north could lead to flooding, while drought in southern regions like Guangxi is already affecting sugarcane. The Ministry of Agriculture reports production estimates for major crops remain unchanged, but admits that cotton, peanuts, and soybeans face increasing disease and heat-related pressure.

Argentina’s wheat crop is benefiting from timely rainfall, improving soil moisture and aiding the final stages of planting. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that 91% of the expected 6.7 million hectares have already been sown. Corn and soybean harvests are nearly complete, with soybeans yielding 50.2 million tons and corn at 70.4% harvested so far, projecting a total of 49 million tons.

In the U.S., export sales remain robust. Soybean sales for the week ending July 3 were led by “unknown buyers,” followed by Egypt, while corn exports were dominated by Mexico and Japan. Wheat sales were strongest to South Korea. Drought coverage increased to 9% in soybean areas and 35% in spring wheat zones, further complicating the outlook.

The Mississippi River grain shipment data shows a rebound, with total volumes rising to 781,000 tons in the first week of July. Corn shipments surged over 50% from the prior week, although soybean volumes declined 17%. Barge rates also increased, reflecting elevated logistics demand during peak shipping season.

U.S. weather outlooks remain central to market sentiment. While cooler conditions are forecast in the Northern Plains and parts of the Midwest, scattered rainfall could be both beneficial and disruptive. Central and Southern Plains are entering critical pollination stages for corn and soybeans, with multiple weather fronts expected.

Finally, U.S. tariffs on Brazilian goods are adding pressure to global soybean and beef markets. Trade friction could hurt both American processors and Brazilian exporters, while shifting soybean crush dynamics may help Argentina regain market share. Rising fertilizer prices from Middle East instability are also tightening margins and raising concerns among farmers.