Chicago Opening Prices – Thursday, July 31 (2025 Contracts)

Wheat

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures for September 2025 opened at $5.23¾ per bushel, holding steady after a 6-cent decline at Wednesday’s close. The wheat market continues to be pressured by mixed spring wheat harvest results and bearish global dynamics. Although Kansas City contracts provided some support, Chicago soft red winter wheat remains fragile. The latest boost to sentiment comes from Bangladesh’s unexpected 220,000-ton U.S. wheat purchase—part of a broader strategy to reduce tariff tensions with Washington—which may temporarily lift export prospects.

Corn

Corn futures for the September 2025 contract began the day at $3.91¾ per bushel, flat after midweek gains of 2½ cents. While the market awaits fresh export sales data, sentiment is buoyed by stronger ethanol-related figures: weekly U.S. production reached 1.096 million barrels/day and exports hit a six-week high. South Korean and Taiwanese demand also helped support prices, although Brazilian corn harvest delays and weather volatility in the U.S. Corn Belt continue to be watched closely.

Soybeans

Soybeans (August 2025 contract) opened at $9.67¾ per bushel, slipping by ¼ cent after a steep 14-cent drop the previous day. The bearish tone stems from Brazil’s bullish production estimates and weak U.S. export demand. Despite minor gains in soy oil, meal contracts continued to weaken. With 1,026 deliveries reported for August soybean meal and a sluggish cash market, traders are bracing for further volatility as USDA export sales data is released.

Global Market Drivers

Bangladesh’s U.S. Wheat Deal Spurs Tariff Strategy Shift

Bangladesh approved the purchase of 220,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat at $302.75/ton as part of a government-to-government agreement. This move, aimed at easing tariff tensions with the U.S., comes after threats of a 35% duty on Bangladeshi exports. With a broader memorandum for 700,000 tons annually now in place, the deal could reshape long-term U.S. wheat trade dynamics, especially with other former food aid recipients potentially following suit.

Russian Wheat Export Estimate Raised

Sovecon revised its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast upward to 43.3 million tons, an increase of 5 million tons from the prior estimate. The production estimate was also raised slightly to 83.6 million tons. This expected glut of Russian wheat is expected to increase competition for exporters globally and suppress global prices further.

U.S. Corn and Soybean Yield Potential Remains Strong

Despite high temperatures, satellite imagery and favorable July rainfall are keeping the U.S. corn and soybean yield outlook intact. Corn production is projected at 400 million tons with crop conditions rated 73% good to excellent, and soybean output is pegged at 118 million tons. These high ratings bolster expectations for a record fall harvest, which may increase downward pressure on prices unless export demand strengthens.

Brazilian Corn Harvest Delays in Focus

Brazil’s second-crop corn harvest progress stands at 66.1%, lagging behind both last year’s 86% and the five-year average of 70.1%. While dry forecasts may accelerate harvest activity, delays in the Safrinha crop could have near-term implications for supply timing to key Asian buyers, including Vietnam, where a 24,718-ton cargo is due from Argentina.

Palm Oil Markets React to Tariff, Export Data

Indonesia raised its crude palm oil (CPO) reference price to $910.91/ton for August, lifting the export tax to $74/ton. Meanwhile, Malaysian July palm oil exports fell 6.71% month-over-month to 1.29 million tons. Despite a surge in Malaysian palm oil exports to the U.S. (up nearly 52%), looming 25% U.S. tariffs threaten future flows. The European Union may partially exempt Indonesian CPO under a new trade deal, adding a fresh layer of market complexity.

South Korea Trade Deal Avoids Agricultural Concessions

South Korea reached an agreement with the U.S. to reduce tariffs on autos to 15%, but retained protections on sensitive agricultural products like rice and beef. While the grain market was unaffected directly, the deal reflects a growing global trend of selective trade negotiations with potential knock-on effects for commodity flows.

U.S. Export Sales and Soy Crush Estimates Eyed

Ahead of the USDA’s report, analysts expect U.S. corn export sales between 1–1.9 million tons and soybeans between 250,000–900,000 tons. Meanwhile, June soybean crush is expected to total 196.9 million bushels, up 7.3% from last year, with declining oil stocks. These estimates, if confirmed, may provide near-term direction for prices as traders gauge demand strength heading into August.

Weather Volatility Continues Across Key Regions

Scattered rainfall across the U.S. Corn Belt, cooler Midwest temperatures, and isolated droughts in Canadian Prairies dominate the short-term outlook. While favorable rains benefit pod-setting in soybeans and pollination in corn, maturing wheat in the Northern Plains and Black Sea faces quality risk from rain. Australia, meanwhile, expects dry weather across most regions except southern Queensland and northern NSW, supporting growth stages for wheat and rapeseed.