Chicago Morning Opening Prices – Contracts for 2025

Wheat

CBOT wheat (September 2025 contract) opened at $5.29¾ per bushel, slipping by 8¾ cents from Tuesday's close. Persistent weakness across global export markets and deteriorating spring wheat crop conditions in the U.S. are weighing heavily on prices. Despite 80% of the U.S. winter wheat crop being harvested, below-average condition ratings and concerns over EU export slowdowns are contributing to the bearish tone.

Corn

Corn futures (September 2025 contract) opened at $3.89¼ per bushel, down 4½ cents. U.S. crop progress showed 76% of corn silking and 26% in the dough stage, with condition ratings falling slightly to 73% good/excellent. Export activity remains modest but active, with recent South Korean and Taiwanese tenders adding demand-side support. However, a growing Brazilian export estimate and slight demand concerns continue to apply pressure.

Soybeans

Soybeans (August 2025 contract) started the session at $9.81¾ per bushel, down 7 cents. Market sentiment was dragged down by oversupply issues and muted export momentum despite stronger crop ratings. Brazil’s robust July export projection of 12.05 million tons is up from last year but slightly revised down from previous forecasts. U.S.–China trade talks in Sweden offered some relief, with a key tariff deadline postponed.

Global Market Drivers

Heavy locust infestations in southern Ukraine, particularly in Zaporizhzhia, are destroying sunflower crops amid wartime chaos that hampers pest control efforts. The loss of predator birds and inability to use aerial spraying in conflict zones have worsened the situation. Farmers report up to one-third of sunflower acreage has been devastated, raising alarm over the nation’s ability to meet sunflower oil export commitments.

Wheat exports from the EU have plunged 64% year-on-year in the first four weeks of the new season. Only 803,000 tons were shipped, far below last year’s 2.25 million tons. Top destinations included Nigeria, Algeria, and Saudi Arabia. Barley and corn imports also fell sharply, highlighting a broader trade slowdown possibly linked to global oversupply and shifting demand patterns.

Ukraine’s grain exports dropped 62% compared to last July, reaching just 1.3 million tons. Wheat exports are down 66%, barley by 60%, and corn by 59%, primarily due to the ongoing war, damaged infrastructure, and reduced harvested areas. Analysts now expect Ukraine to harvest less than 30 million tons of corn, down from initial forecasts, due to heat and drought.

Australian wheat forecasts surged after July rains replenished dry soils across key growing regions. Analysts now see the crop reaching or exceeding 33 million tons, potentially matching last year’s 34 million. This rebound could add further bearish pressure on global prices already dampened by ample supply.

China’s corn forecast for 2025/26 was slightly adjusted to 299.1 million tons due to mixed weather impacts. While Northeast China received beneficial rains, extreme heat in the North China Plains (Henan, Hebei, Shandong) led to local stress and some yield concerns. Net production remains higher than last year but market watchers are wary of additional losses.

India’s record soyoil imports from China—150,000 tons—have shaken the oilseed market. Chinese crushers, burdened by excessive stocks, offered oil at a $15–$20 discount over South American suppliers. The move helps China offload surplus and introduces a new dynamic in Indian sourcing behavior, traditionally focused on Argentina and Brazil.

U.S. ethanol production is expected to rise slightly, based on estimates ahead of the EIA report. Analysts project output at 1.085 million barrels/day, up from the prior week. Stocks are also projected to grow modestly. Ethanol-related corn demand remains a key support pillar for the crop's domestic use balance sheet.

Canada’s oilseed processing saw a 10.3% year-on-year increase in canola crush during June, hitting 856,100 tons. Soybean crush was down sharply from May but still 22.9% higher year-on-year. The figures reinforce a growing trend in North American processing capacity and competition for global oilseed markets.