Wheat

Wheat futures saw a firm retreat across major exchanges on Tuesday. Chicago SRW September 2025 contracts closed at $5.29¾ per bushel, down 8¾ cents on the day. Kansas City HRW was also weaker by 7 to 8 cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat dipped 3 to 4 cents. U.S. harvest progress data showed 80% of winter wheat now harvested—1% behind the average—while spring wheat remained 3% behind schedule, with only 49% rated good/excellent. Montana and North Dakota both showed deterioration in crop conditions. EU soft wheat exports, another global barometer, fell drastically to 803,256 MT for July 1–27, compared to over 2.2 MMT last year, adding to bearish sentiment.

Corn

Corn prices closed lower after a failed midday rebound. The September 2025 CBOT corn contract ended at $3.89¼ per bushel, falling 4½ cents. Weekly USDA data showed that 76% of the corn crop was silking and 26% in the dough stage, with crop conditions slightly down to 73% rated good/excellent. Mixed changes across key states suggested variable growing conditions. South Korea and Taiwan stepped into the market with tenders totaling nearly 200,000 MT, but this was not enough to overcome bearish fundamentals. Brazilian July corn imports are now estimated at 4.18 MMT, up from last year’s 3.55 MMT, weighing on sentiment.

Soybeans

Soybean futures continued their descent, with August 2025 contracts closing at $9.81¾ per bushel, down 7 cents. Soymeal extended losses, down by up to $3.20, while soyoil posted moderate gains. Concerns about Q4 demand from China dominated trader sentiment after news broke of bloated soymeal inventories and minimal U.S. cargo bookings. Meanwhile, the U.S. crop outlook improved: 70% of soybeans were rated good/excellent, up 2% from last week. The Brazil export forecast was slightly lowered to 12.05 MMT for July, but still above last year’s level. U.S.–China negotiations in Sweden pushed back potential tariffs by 90 days, offering some hope but little immediate relief.

Key Global Market Developments

China’s Soymeal Surplus Clouds U.S. Outlook

The most urgent story influencing the soybean complex is China’s mounting soymeal surplus. With soymeal prices down 6.5% year-on-year and crushers facing losses, traders expect reduced Q4 soybean imports—the peak export window for U.S. producers. Spot soymeal in north China fell to 2,925 yuan/MT, while soymeal futures declined for the fourth consecutive session. Delays in Chinese bookings and ongoing U.S.–China trade talks in Stockholm have created substantial uncertainty.

Argentina Poised to Resume Soy Exports

After a freeze in soybean sales since July 1, Argentina’s soy complex is set to resume exports following President Javier Milei’s announcement of a permanent export tax cut to 26% for soybeans and 24.5% for meal and oil. The CIARA-CEC association expects a recovery in export volumes once the measure is published in the official gazette. Still, July sales volumes remain below June levels, with farmers hesitant amid regulatory uncertainty.

Brazil’s Wheat Planting Wraps Up as Prices Ease

Wheat planting in Brazil is nearly complete, with 96.9% of the area seeded as of July 19. Despite favorable weather in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, liquidity in the domestic market remains low as buyers eye global price trends. Wholesale prices fell slightly across most states, while over-the-counter farmer payments fluctuated. Overall, domestic focus is still on crop management over commercial activity.

South Korea and Taiwan Boost Corn Demand

In a show of steady Asian demand, South Korea purchased 132,000 MT of corn, while Taiwan issued a tender for 65,000 MT. This comes despite overall pressure on corn futures due to steady crop conditions in the U.S. and a bearish technical outlook. Brazil’s increased corn import estimate adds to the pressure.

USDA Crop Progress: Steady with Pockets of Stress

The latest USDA Crop Progress report held corn at 73% good/excellent and bumped soybeans up to 70%. While the Midwest and Plains benefited from scattered rain and cooler temperatures, the Southern U.S. still faces elevated heat risks. The slight national uptick belies some state-level slippage, particularly in Minnesota and Texas for corn.

Palm Oil Recovery Bolsters Vegoil Complex

Malaysian palm oil futures rose 12 ringgit, supported by improved second-half outlooks tied to Indian festival demand and reduced duties. Although Indian tax policy remains a wild card, the palm oil recovery is offering a minor lift to the broader oilseed sector, particularly for Asian-import-focused commodities like soy oil.

Mixed Futures Open Interest Trends Reflect Market Anxiety

Tuesday's futures data showed soybeans losing 26,541 contracts in open interest, indicating long liquidation. Corn gained nearly 7,000 contracts, signaling new short positions. SRW wheat gained 3,359 contracts, while HRW dropped modestly. These shifts highlight a grain market torn between optimism over improved crop weather and fear of reduced global demand.

U.S.–China Talks in Stockholm Continue Amid Trade Tensions

The resumption of diplomatic discussions between the U.S. and China has pushed a looming tariff deadline to November, pending approval from President Trump. The talks are being closely watched, especially as they may shape China’s grain and oilseed import strategy going into Q4. Any shift could alter the balance of global agricultural trade.