Wheat

Wheat futures saw a mixed close on Thursday. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat for September 2025 settled at $5.23¼ per bushel, down just half a cent from the previous day. Despite midday weakness, the market managed to find modest support thanks to hard red winter wheat (HRW), which ended the day up by 2 to 4¼ cents. Minneapolis spring wheat also saw fractional gains. The USDA announced a private sale of 100,000 metric tons of HRW wheat to Nigeria, while weekly export sales totaled 592,119 tons—mid-range of analyst expectations. The top buyer was listed as "unknown destinations," followed by the Philippines. However, poor crop ratings for spring wheat and ongoing harvest delays continue to weigh on sentiment.

Corn

September 2025 corn contracts closed at $3.94 per bushel, gaining 2¼ cents. That lifted the mood slightly after a July performance that saw futures fall below $4. A series of export sales supported the market: 100,000 tons to Colombia, 140,000 tons to South Korea, and 136,000 tons to unknown destinations. Weekly USDA data showed 340,924 tons of old crop corn sold—lower than the previous week but more than double last year's level for the same week. Meanwhile, new crop bookings for 2025/26 surged to a marketing year high of 1.892 million tons, far surpassing estimates. Buyers included South Korea and unknown destinations, pointing to robust forward demand. Strong ethanol numbers and improved weather in the U.S. Corn Belt also underpin a positive yield outlook.

Soybeans

Soybeans declined on Thursday, with the August 2025 contract closing at $9.61¾ per bushel, down 6 cents. The market remains under pressure from high U.S. production prospects and sluggish Chinese buying. Despite higher cash prices, futures fell amid weak demand signals. USDA data reported 349,164 tons in old crop soybean sales—above expectations and a three-week high—while new crop sales totaled 429,457 tons. Egypt and Mexico led demand, but China remained absent. Soymeal futures rose slightly, while soy oil contracts tumbled. Analysts await Friday’s USDA crush report, expected to show 196.6 million bushels crushed in June and lower soybean oil stocks.

Global Grain Market Drivers

Bangladesh’s Strategic U.S. Wheat Purchase Reshapes Trade Landscape

Bangladesh's approval of a 220,000-ton U.S. wheat deal at $302.75 per ton marks a strategic shift to cool tensions with the Trump administration. This purchase, part of a broader agreement for 700,000 tons annually, may redefine trade flows and reduce reliance on Black Sea origins. It signals a growing trend of using grain deals to defuse trade disputes, with U.S. exporters eyeing similar arrangements across Asia and Africa.

Spring Wheat Harvest Begins Under Mixed U.S. Conditions

U.S. wheat production for 2025/26 is now estimated at 52.8 million tons, slightly down from previous projections. While the winter wheat harvest is nearly complete (80%), the spring wheat crop is suffering—only 49% is rated good-to-excellent, compared to 74% last year. Wet weather may impact quality, especially across the northern plains.

U.S. Corn Yield Outlook Remains Firm on Satellite and Soil Data

Corn production projections hold steady at 400 million tons as crop condition ratings remain strong. As of July 28, 73% of the corn crop was rated good-to-excellent. Rainfall throughout July has offset heat stress across the Corn Belt, and soil moisture is supportive for August growth, barring potential heatwaves later in the month.

Soybean Crop Maintains Strength, But August Weather Remains Key

Soybean output is also forecast at 118 million tons, unchanged from July. High crop condition ratings (70% good-to-excellent) and positive satellite imagery suggest healthy fields in key states like Iowa and Illinois. However, analysts warn of yield sensitivity to hot weather during pod-setting stages later in August.

Brazilian Safrinha Corn Harvest Behind Schedule

Brazil’s second corn harvest is 66.1% complete—far behind last year’s 86% pace and below the 5-year average. Dry weather ahead should accelerate harvesting, but delays could affect export timing to Asia, particularly Vietnam, where Argentine corn shipments are also ramping up.

Palm Oil Faces Policy Shocks Across Southeast Asia

Indonesia raised its CPO reference price to $910.91/ton for August, increasing export tax to $74. Malaysia, meanwhile, posted a 6.71% month-on-month drop in July palm oil exports to 1.29 million tons. Despite a 52% export surge to the U.S., a looming 25% U.S. tariff and new EU trade restrictions add uncertainty to global flows.

Trade Talks Reshape Tariff Landscapes

The U.S. has reduced tariffs on South Korean autos from 25% to 15%, though rice and beef concessions were avoided. This reflects a broader pattern of selective trade deals with potential ripple effects across global grain and meat flows. Separately, Polish wheat production is forecast up 3% to 12.8 million tons, adding supply to the EU market.

USDA Export and Processing Data Shapes Short-Term Price Outlook

Thursday's USDA report highlighted strong new crop sales for corn and soybeans, with traders now awaiting Friday’s Fats and Oils report. June’s soybean crush is projected at 196.6 million bushels, while corn used for ethanol rose 1.8% year-over-year. These figures will guide short-term price trends into early August.