Wheat

Chicago wheat futures for the September 2025 contract settled at $5.23¾ per bushel, down 6 cents on the day. Prices faced pressure from sluggish global demand, particularly with EU wheat exports down 64% year-on-year. Although the U.S. harvest has reached 80%, weak condition ratings and mixed results across spring wheat regions added to bearish momentum. While Kansas City contracts posted slight gains, Chicago soft red winter wheat was notably weaker. A key flashpoint was Bangladesh’s 220,000 MT purchase of U.S. wheat, possibly easing tensions in a volatile export environment, though the broader tone remains cautious.

Corn

Corn contracts saw modest support midweek, with the September 2025 contract closing at $3.91¾ per bushel, gaining 2½ cents. Stronger ethanol data contributed to the bounce: weekly U.S. production rose to 1.096 million barrels/day, and exports climbed to a six-week high. Additionally, major tenders from South Korea (195,000 MT) and Taiwan (65,000 MT) added optimism. However, global dynamics, including Brazil’s raised export projections and heat-related stress in the North China Plain, kept gains modest. Traders now await updated U.S. export sales figures and further clarity on Chinese corn production estimates.

Soybeans

Soybean futures fell sharply, with the August 2025 contract closing at $9.67¾ per bushel, down 14 cents. The market was dragged lower by a combination of oversupply, weak export sentiment, and competitive pressures from Brazil, where the upcoming crop is estimated at a massive 182.9 MMT. U.S. soybean sales remained tepid, and meal contracts weakened by up to $2/ton. While soy oil posted slight gains, it was not enough to offset bearish sentiment. Expectations are mixed heading into USDA’s weekly sales data, with traders bracing for further export headwinds.

Global Market Drivers

In southern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, massive locust swarms are devastating sunflower fields amid extreme heat and war-related disruptions. Farmers report up to one-third of crops destroyed. The inability to use aerial spraying and the absence of predator birds due to active combat zones are worsening the crisis. This outbreak comes as Ukraine, the world’s top sunflower oil exporter, already faces reduced export potential due to infrastructure damage and geopolitical constraints.

The EU’s wheat exports continue to underperform, falling 64% in the first four weeks of the new season. Only 803,000 tons were exported as of July 27, compared to 2.25 million tons last year. Corn imports are also down 74%, while barley exports dropped 16%, highlighting a broader contraction in EU trade flows and potential oversupply concerns.

Ukraine’s grain export volumes dropped 62% year-on-year in July, totaling just 1.3 million tons. War damage, lower harvest estimates, and destroyed logistics infrastructure remain the main culprits. Heatwaves and drought conditions are also threatening this year’s corn yield, with producers now projecting a loss of 2 million tons.

Australia’s wheat outlook has brightened significantly thanks to favorable July rains. Forecasts now point to a harvest of 33–34 million tons, a substantial revision upward from previous estimates. This could flood global markets with additional volume, compounding price pressure for wheat exporters worldwide.

In China, corn production forecasts for 2025/26 were slightly lowered to 299.1 million tons due to regional heat stress in Henan, Shandong, and Hebei. While beneficial rains in the Northeast helped boost yields in Jilin and Liaoning, extreme heat elsewhere prompted localized reductions. Market participants remain cautious, as these opposing forces may neutralize each other in terms of net output.

A record 150,000 MT of soyoil was purchased by India from China—a rare move that signals changing global flows. Chinese crushers, facing excessive inventories, offered competitive prices with discounts of $15–$20 per ton versus South American suppliers. Lower freight times and cost advantages further tilted the trade in China’s favor, shifting India’s traditional sourcing strategy.

Ethanol data supported U.S. corn, as production hit 1.096 million barrels/day, up from last week. Stocks also rose to 24.716 million barrels. Export activity of ethanol climbed, helping to lift refinery inputs and stabilize corn’s demand base domestically, even as global sentiment remains muted.

Finally, weather updates remain a critical focus: while North America enjoys cooler temperatures and scattered rains benefiting corn and soybeans, extreme heat persists in Ukraine and the North China Plain. The Canadian Prairies and parts of South America are dry, while India and South China face heavy rains. These conditions may have opposing effects on crop quality and logistics in the coming weeks.