Chicago Opening Prices – Friday, August 1 (2025 Contracts)

Wheat

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat for September 2025 opened at $5.17¾ per bushel, down 5½ cents from Thursday's close. The wheat market faces early pressure as all three U.S. wheat exchanges—Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis—showed a weaker tone in Friday's morning trade. Despite a USDA-reported private sale of 100,000 metric tons of hard red winter (HRW) wheat to Nigeria and export sales totaling 592,119 metric tons last week, the momentum remains fragile. Traders are watching Russian and Ukrainian export delays, but futures continue to be capped by expectations of improved Russian flows later this season.

Corn

Corn futures for September 2025 opened at $3.93½ per bushel, down ½ cent after posting modest gains Thursday. The previous session closed July trading with a 2¼ cent increase, although the month’s performance kept futures below the $4 mark. Recent private sales—376,000 tons total to Colombia, South Korea, and unknown destinations—combined with new crop export bookings of 1.892 million tons (a marketing-year high), reflect steady demand. However, the market remains cautious amid tariff negotiations and Trump's recent deal with South Korea reducing auto tariffs while maintaining agricultural protections.

Soybeans

August 2025 soybean futures opened at $9.62 per bushel, slightly up by ¼ cent following a 6-cent drop on Thursday. While old crop soybean sales hit a three-week high of 349,164 metric tons and new crop sales reached 429,457 tons, China remains absent from the buyers list. Egypt and Mexico led demand. Soymeal futures showed some strength, but soy oil contracts posted significant losses. Traders are now focused on the USDA’s June crush report expected later today, with analysts forecasting 196.6 million bushels crushed and a potential decline in oil stocks to 1.863 billion pounds.

Global Market Drivers

Wheat exports from top global suppliers—Russia, Ukraine, and the EU—are off to a sluggish start this season, with July shipments sharply lower. Russian exports dropped 30% year-on-year, Ukraine is shipping just a third of last year’s volume, and the EU is lagging as well. Spot prices at Black Sea ports in Bulgaria and Romania surged by 8% in July, with market participants concerned that limited Black Sea competition may give wheat prices temporary support.

SovEcon significantly cut Ukraine’s wheat forecast to 19.8 million tons due to low yields from hot and dry June weather, the weakest since 2019. Barley estimates were also slashed to 4.8 million tons. This puts additional strain on regional supply, although Ukraine’s corn outlook improved to 30.4 million tons thanks to expanded planting and favorable growing conditions.

Argentina’s wheat crop prospects improved following recent rains that brought 96.9% of planted area into normal-to-excellent condition. Wheat development under optimal soil moisture now covers nearly 79% of the area. Additionally, Argentina maintained its corn production estimate at 49 million tons with 88% of harvest completed, supporting South American export flows.

China made another move in the soymeal market, purchasing 30,000 metric tons of Argentine product at a competitive price of $345/ton. With Argentina’s export tax on soymeal reduced from 31% to 24.5%, its product remains cheaper than domestically crushed alternatives in China. This is the third such deal since June and highlights a shift in Chinese procurement toward South American sources.

Malaysian palm oil negotiations with the U.S. are making progress, as the two countries discuss zero-tariff treatment for non-substitutable commodities like palm oil, rubber, and cocoa. While Malaysia has agreed to remove tariffs on 61% of U.S. imports, the U.S. is signaling flexibility on agriculture, which could open room for increased Southeast Asian commodity exports.

President Trump’s administration escalated trade tensions by raising tariffs on Canadian goods from 25% to 35%, effective immediately. The White House justified the move as a response to Canadian “retaliation” and inaction. This could ripple into North American agricultural trade, particularly if Canada responds with countermeasures affecting U.S. ag exports.

Brazil also faces steep new tariffs from the U.S., with 35.9% of its export value affected—mainly targeting coffee and beef. Vice President Geraldo Alckmin warned that American consumers will bear the cost, while Brazil plans legal challenges and domestic support packages to mitigate damage. The tariff move could shift Brazil’s ag flows toward other markets and bolster domestic supply.

U.S. barge shipments of corn and soybeans up the Mississippi River rose significantly last week. Corn shipments surged 21.2% week-over-week, and soybeans jumped 15.7%. Barge freight rates also increased, reflecting strong inland demand. Meanwhile, drought coverage across corn-growing areas fell to 7% and 5% for soybeans, a positive sign for upcoming harvest conditions in the Midwest.