Grain Highlights 15.09.2023

The wheat production in Kazakhstan for 2023/24 is not expected to exceed 12.5 million tons.

- According to IKAR, the forecast for wheat production in Russia for 2023/24 is 91 million tons, with exports expected to be 49.5 million tons, which would be a new record for the country.

- During the week of September 20-26, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 4,528.7 rubles per ton (4,493.7 the previous week), the export tax on barley will be 789.5 rubles per ton (931.7), and the export tax on corn will be 2,616.4 rubles per ton (2,465.2).

- The wheat production in Kazakhstan for 2023/24 is not expected to exceed 12.5 million tons. In 2022/23, the production reached a record 16 million tons. Wheat exports (wheat + flour) are expected to be 9.5 million tons (10.5).

- According to data from FranceAgriMer as of September 11, 2023, only 1% of the corn fields in France have been harvested (compared to 13% the previous year and 4% on average for the last five years). 82% of the fields are in good or excellent condition (up 2% for the week and 43% from the previous year).

- According to the latest estimate from Statistics Canada, the wheat production in Canada for 2023/24 will be 29.8 million tons (29.5 in August and -8% compared to 2022/23), making it the second weakest production in the last 8 years. The durum wheat production will be 4.1 million tons (4.3 and -30%), the second weakest production in the last 13 years. The canola production is projected to reach 17.4 million tons (17.6 and -7%), the lowest in the last 9 years.

- Abiove predicts soybean exports from Brazil for 2022/23 to be 99 million tons (+0.5 compared to the previous estimate and +20.2 compared to 2021/22). Ending soybean stocks will be 6.2 million tons (-0.3 and +2.5), and soybean production is expected at 157.3 million tons (+0.3 and 129.9).

- According to the Rosario Grain Exchange, the wheat production in Argentina for 2023/24 will be 15 million tons (-0.6 compared to the previous estimate), the fourth lowest in the last 10 years. Currently, 32% of the crops are in poor or satisfactory condition. The corn production will be 56 million tons (34 in 2022/23), and the soybean production will be 48 million tons (20).

- According to the CNGOIC (China National Grain and Oil Information Centre), soybean processing in China during the week of September 3-9 was 2 million tons (-3% compared to the previous week). Stocks are estimated at 4.9 million tons (-12% compared to the previous week, -15% compared to the previous month, and -1% compared to the previous year).

- In August, vegetable oil imports into India were 1.87 million tons (+33% compared to August 2022) and 14.122 million tons for the November-August period (+24%). Imports for the entire 2022/23 season are expected to be between 16-16.5 million tons (with 15.1 being the current record from 2016/17). In August, palm oil imports were 1.13 million tons, soyoil imports reached 357,900 tons, and sunseed oil imports were 365,870 tons.