Grain Highlights 15.08.2023

Fitch Ratings forecasts that floods in China will raise world rice prices.

Starting from September 1, 2023, the export tax on Russian oil will be increased by 4.5 USD/ton to 21.4 USD/ton.

According to USDA data as of August 13, 2023, 59% of soybean crops are in good to excellent condition (+5% compared to the previous week), and 59% of corn crops are also in good condition (+2%). Winter wheat has been harvested on 92% of the areas, while spring wheat has been harvested on 24%.

Fitch Ratings forecasts that floods in China will raise world rice prices. Significant rainfall has affected three Chinese provinces responsible for 23% of the country's rice production, causing floods. China, the world's largest wheat producer, will need to increase imports to offset the losses. Rice prices are already at historically high levels and wheat, as a substitute, is also expected to become more expensive.

China has surpassed Greece in terms of owning a fleet of commercial ships. While Greece held the top spot for decades, China's rapid development in the shipbuilding industry has led to this change. China now owns a fleet with a tonnage of 249.2 million tons GT, Greece has 249 million tons GT, and Japan has 181 million tons GT.

According to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, in July, 1.77 million tons of vegetable oils were delivered to India (1.31 in June and 1.21 in July 2022). Palm oil imports were 1.08 million tons (683,000 in July), sunseed oil imports reached 327,000 tons (190,000), and soyoil imports were 342,000 tons (437,000). From the beginning of the year, palm oil deliveries reached 7.11 million tons (4.86), soyoil imports reached 2.82 million tons (-15%), and sunseed oil imports were 2.18 million tons (+45%). As of August 1, 2023, India's vegetable oil reserves were 3.2 million tons (+12% compared to the previous month).

Iran has announced a tender to purchase 180,000 tons of feed corn and 120,000 tons of soymeal.

Bangladesh has accepted bids for the sale of 50,000 tons of milling wheat at prices ranging from 304.83 to 322.22 USD/ton C&F.

Thailand has purchased 55,000 tons of Canadian wheat with 13.5% protein content, priced between 355 and 358 USD/ton C&F, with delivery scheduled for October to November.

According to government data from Egypt, the country holds strategic wheat reserves sufficient to meet domestic demand for the next 4.7 months.

Egypt's state-owned company, GASC, has announced a tender to purchase vegetable oils with delivery scheduled for September to October.

Tunisia has purchased 25,000 tons of soft wheat at a price of 250.24 EUR/ton C&F from Cargill of any origin and delivery scheduled for September 1-10.

RMI Analytics forecasts a global barley production of 138 million tons for the 2023/24 season (down from 138.7 million in the previous estimate). Canada's production has decreased by 1 million tons due to drought, Argentina's production will be 4.6 million tons (+0.1), and Australia's production is projected at 10.8 million tons (+0.2).