Grain markets enter Friday with fresh contract highs across corn, soybeans and winter wheat as Black Sea logistics, tightening feed-grain supplies and strong new-crop soybean demand outweigh mixed energy and macro signals.
Agricultural markets start Friday, 28 August, broadly higher, with new contract highs appearing in corn, soybeans, Chicago wheat and Kansas City wheat. The strongest underlying themes remain constrained Black Sea grain flows, expectations for tighter US and European corn supplies, and accelerating Chinese purchases of new-crop US soybeans, while hotter and drier US weather adds further risk into early September.
Black Sea Disruption Keeps Wheat Risk Premium Elevated
Wheat remains supported by persistent Black Sea uncertainty as the region moves into what is normally its peak four-month shipment period. Logistical problems are increasingly feeding into production and supply concerns, with Ukrainian winter wheat area expected to decline this autumn and planted area in Russia also likely to be reduced. That combination keeps the market focused not only on immediate export disruption but also on the possibility of tighter future regional supply.
Wheat Export Demand Improves as European Stocks Tighten
US wheat export sales reached 402,531 MT for 2026/27 in the week ending August 20, a nine-week high, although still 30.57% below the same week last year. Mexico bought 78,500 MT, Japan 71,900 MT and Vietnam 65,000 MT. At the same time, EU wheat production is estimated at 124.2 MMT, down 0.2 MMT from last month, while ending stocks were cut by 1.6 MMT to 11.3 MMT, adding another supportive element to the wheat balance.
Speculative Buying Returns to Corn
Corn is regaining momentum after Thursday’s pause in the rally, with speculative traders returning to the buy side overnight. The speculative long position is estimated at 395,000 contracts, approaching the record long of 429,000 contracts from October 2010. The increasingly crowded position reinforces upside momentum while also making the market more vulnerable to profit-taking if expectations for lower US production or stronger usage fail to intensify.
European Corn Supply Outlook Deteriorates Further
The European corn balance has become increasingly supportive for global prices. EU production is now forecast at 50.1 MMT, the lowest in nearly 20 years and 17% below last year, while expected imports were raised by 1 MMT to 25 MMT. France’s corn condition rating has fallen to just 28% good to excellent, compared with 62% last year, increasing Europe’s dependence on imported feed grain and strengthening the demand outlook for competitive exporters.
New-Crop Corn Demand Outpaces Old-Crop Business
Old-crop US corn sales fell to a marketing-year low of 31,220 MT, but the forward demand picture is significantly stronger. New-crop bookings reached 1.066 MMT, a marketing-year high, including 438,000 MT to unknown destinations and 208,800 MT to Mexico. Total 2026/27 commitments stand at 12.458 MMT, down 33.6% year over year but still the fourth-largest volume for this point in the calendar over the past 30 years, keeping demand from turning decisively bearish.
Chinese Buying Strengthens the Soybean Demand Story
Soybean demand is becoming one of the strongest supportive elements in the complex. New-crop US soybean sales reached 2.478 MMT, a marketing-year high and more than double the same week last year, with China purchasing 1.1 MMT and another 1.046 MMT booked to unknown destinations. Total 2026/27 sales have reached 14.334 MMT, nearly double last year’s pace and the fourth-largest volume for this week in the past decade.
Biofuel Policy Revives Soybean Oil and Crush Margins
Soybean oil has recovered as the market considers the possibility that US biofuel blending quotas for 2027 could be increased by 500 million gallons to offset the impact of larger small-refinery exemptions. Crush margins have rebounded another $0.10/bu to $2.27 1/2/bu, while soybean oil product value has recovered to 51%. The policy discussion remains unofficial, but the possibility of stronger mandated biofuel demand is helping soybean oil regain support after being the weakest component of the soy complex earlier in the week.
Hotter, Drier US Weather Adds Late-Season Risk
US weather is becoming less favorable for the final stages of soybean development, with little to no rainfall expected across much of the central US over the next seven days. Temperatures are forecast to rise well above normal, with mid-90s to above 100°F expected across the Plains and much of the southern Midwest through the first full week of September. The pattern is supportive for soybeans and potentially corn where late-season stress remains relevant, while mixed energy prices, a largely unchanged US dollar and flat equity markets provide little additional macro direction.
Wheat Futures
Wheat starts Friday higher in choppy two-sided trade, with Dec ’26 Chicago wheat up $0.07 at $7.68/bu, Dec ’26 KC wheat up $0.08 at $8.30/bu and Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat up $0.02 1/2 at $7.60 1/4/bu. Black Sea logistical constraints, expectations for reduced winter wheat acreage in Ukraine and Russia, and tighter European ending stocks continue to support the market, while Friday’s CFTC report is expected to show managed money still net short Chicago wheat through Tuesday’s positions.
Corn Futures
Corn begins Friday with renewed strength, as Sep ’26 corn is up $0.05 at $5.15 1/2/bu and Dec ’26 corn is also up $0.05 at $5.38 1/2/bu. Speculative buying has returned after Thursday’s pause, while expectations for lower US production, potentially stronger usage and an EU crop forecast of only 50.1 MMT continue to support the bullish supply narrative.
Soybean Futures
Soybeans are also higher at the start of Friday, with Sep ’26 soybeans up $0.07 1/2 at $12.64/bu and Nov ’26 up $0.07 1/2 at $12.75 1/2/bu. Oct ’26 soybean meal is up $1.40 at $335.80, while Oct ’26 soybean oil is up 127 points at 69.50. Strong Chinese new-crop purchases, competitive US Gulf FOB offers and improving crush margins are supporting the complex, while uncertainty around US production leaves limited room for yields to fall from the current 52.7 bpa forecast.