Fresh Chinese soybean purchases and simmering Black Sea attacks keep the complex on edge even as prices pull back from Monday's rally.

All three CBOT markets are trading lower early Tuesday after Monday's broad gains, with wheat leading the retreat on profit-taking and soybeans holding up relatively better on renewed Chinese demand. Traders are weighing a third straight weekly decline in corn conditions against another round of Black Sea strikes and a growing South American crop.

Corn's Reversal Draws Fresh Fund Buying

Monday's session produced a notable outside reversal higher in corn even as energy markets sold off sharply, with fund buying estimated at up to 17,000 contracts. That disconnect between energy weakness and corn strength suggests funds were covering shorts rather than reacting to new bullish fundamentals, a dynamic that could unwind quickly if Tuesday's early pullback holds. The move is modestly supportive for corn near-term but leaves the market exposed if that length is not backed by fresh demand news.

China Adds to Its Soybean Book

USDA confirmed 488,000 MT of soybean sales to China for 2026/27 delivery this morning, along with 136,150 MT to unknown destinations, following weekend reports that China bought 14 to 16 cargoes on Friday. Traders are watching for additional flash-sale announcements Tuesday, and continued Chinese buying is the clearest bullish counterweight to the morning's broader weakness. The demand is supportive for soybeans and, by extension, for soymeal and soy oil values.

Black Sea Attacks Continue, but the Market Looks Fatigued

Wheat rallied into Monday's close after President Trump signaled that Iran negotiations were stalling and after Russia struck eight Ukrainian ships overnight while Ukraine hit three Russian port warehouses. Tuesday's pullback suggests the market is growing desensitized to repeated Black Sea strikes, and Russian wheat prices are already down $9 on the week amid rising freight and insurance costs. The net effect is bearish for now, even though the underlying conflict remains a persistent source of volatility for wheat.

Southern Plains Heat Pressures Corn While Soybeans Hold Steady

Corn conditions slipped another 2 percentage points to 61% good-to-excellent, the third straight weekly decline, as the National Weather Service warns of a flash drought developing across the southern Plains. Soybean conditions held steady at 63% good-to-excellent, with pod-setting running seven points ahead of the five-year average, and the extended forecast still calls for above-normal precipitation across the eastern Belt even as heat expands into the Delta and Southeast. The divergence is modestly bearish for corn and neutral-to-supportive for soybeans, while spring wheat conditions actually improved 2 points despite last week's jump in drought-affected area.

Export Inspections Split: Corn Surges, Wheat and Beans Lag

Corn shipments totaled 1.885 MMT for the week of July 30, up 22.92% from the prior week and 45.44% above last year, keeping the marketing-year pace 25.35% ahead of last year with just a month remaining. Wheat inspections, by contrast, fell 19.68% week-over-week to 335,313 MT and remain 27.36% behind last year's pace, while soybean shipments of 343,941 MT were down 6% on the week and 45.3% below the same week a year ago. The split keeps corn demand as the standout bright spot in the complex while wheat and soybean export paces continue to lag.

Brazil's Crop Keeps Getting Bigger

AgRural pegged Brazil's second corn crop at 69% harvested in the center-south region, and StoneX raised its second-crop estimate by 3.2 MMT to 110.7 MMT, lifting total Brazilian corn production to 141.5 MMT. StoneX also raised its Brazilian soybean forecast to 183.1 MMT, up 0.5 MMT from its prior estimate. Larger South American supply estimates are a bearish backdrop for both corn and soybeans heading into the fall.

Ethanol and Crush Demand Stay Firm

Corn used for ethanol reached a record June total of 466.71 mbu, up 4.43% year-over-year even though it slipped 1.5% from May, leaving marketing-year production 76 mbu ahead of last year. June soybean crush came in at 217.8 mbu, just shy of the 218.3 mbu estimate but up 10.61% from a year ago, while bean oil stocks fell 9.45% from May to 2.096 billion lbs, still 10.7% larger than last year. Firm processing demand is a supportive undercurrent for both corn and the soy complex even as front-month prices soften.

Wheat Demand Signals: Tenders Emerge as EU Logistics Tighten

A South Korean mill purchased 50,000 MT of US wheat overnight, and Algeria announced a 50,000 tonne tender Monday that traders expect to grow well beyond its initial size, as is typical for Algerian purchases. At the same time, the Rhine River hit a record low, pushing EU barge shipping costs higher and restricting load sizes, a logistics squeeze that could redirect more demand toward US and Black Sea origins. The combination is modestly supportive for wheat, though it has not been enough to offset this morning's broader pullback.

Crop Futures Wrap

WHEAT

Sep '26 CBOT wheat is down 7 1/4 cents to start Tuesday's session after closing Monday at $6.51, up 11 3/4 cents. The broader complex is showing 5 to 7 cent losses across Chicago, KC, and Minneapolis this morning, pulling back after Monday's gains (Chicago SRW up 10 to 12 1/4 cents, KC HRW up 9 3/4 to 11 3/4 cents, MPLS spring wheat up 2 1/2 to 5 1/2 cents). Early weakness follows a larger-than-expected 2% gain in HRS crop conditions and a US Ag attaché estimate raising Canadian wheat production, which are offsetting lingering support from overnight Black Sea attacks.

CORN

Sep '26 corn is down 1 1/4 cents early Tuesday after closing Monday at $4.49 1/4, up 8 1/2 cents, on the back of an outside-reversal rally. Corn price action broadly is down 1 to 2 cents across contracts this morning as traders weigh continued southern Plains crop stress and a third straight weekly condition decline against Monday's strong finish and a record June ethanol grind.

SOYBEANS

Aug '26 soybeans are down 7 3/4 cents to start the session after closing Monday at $11.68 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents. The broader complex is down 7 to 10 cents early Tuesday even after firming into Monday's close, as traders watch for additional Chinese flash sales following this morning's confirmed 488,000 MT purchase and an extended forecast pointing to returning Midwest heat.