Wheat futures finished Wednesday under mild pressure across the complex, with Chicago SRW closing steady to 3 cents lower, Kansas City HRW down 2 to 4 cents and Minneapolis spring wheat off 4 to 5 cents. The benchmark December 2025 CBOT wheat contract settled at $5.37¾ per bushel, unchanged on the day, as traders weighed softer board values against a solid stream of export business. South Korea bought 30,300 tons of wheat in a tender and Algeria was reported to have secured between 810,000 and 900,000 tons in its latest tender, while no deliveries were registered against December Chicago wheat and a further 66 contracts were tendered against December KC wheat.

Corn futures extended their midweek slide, finishing Wednesday with losses of 5 to 7 cents across most maturities. The December 2025 CBOT corn contract closed at $4.31½ per bushel, down 6½ cents, while the cmdtyView national average cash corn price fell by the same amount to $3.98¾. Fresh pressure came despite a very strong biofuel backdrop, as weekly EIA data showed record US ethanol output at 1.126 million barrels per day in the week ending 28 November and stocks rising to 22.511 million barrels, a sign that growing production is temporarily outpacing demand even as traders look for 0.8 to 2.5 million tons of export sales in Thursday’s delayed USDA report.

Soybean futures also moved lower, with front-month contracts closing 9 to 10 cents in the red on Wednesday. January 2026 CBOT soybeans finished at $11.15¾ per bushel, down 9 cents on the day, and the cmdtyView national average cash bean price slipped 8¾ cents to $10.45. The product side mirrored the softer tone as soymeal eased by $0.20 to $1.70 and soyoil dropped 89 to 101 points, with three December soymeal and 128 December bean oil delivery notices issued overnight. Market participants continue to monitor the pace of Chinese buying and the clearing of USDA’s export sales backlog, with traders looking for 0.6 to 2 million tons of soybean bookings, 200,000 to 450,000 tons of soymeal and 5,000 to 25,000 tons of soyoil in the week of 30 October.

Across the broader futures landscape, price action, open interest shifts and Chinese market signals are setting a cautious but not uniformly bearish tone. Overnight moves left SRW and HRW wheat slightly weaker, corn down 2 cents, soybeans up 2¾ cents, soymeal up $1.20 and soyoil down 0.31, while for the week so far wheat is modestly higher in SRW and HRW and flat in HRS, corn is up a quarter cent, soybeans are down just over 10 cents, soymeal is lower and soyoil is marginally firmer. Year to date, nearby wheat and corn remain under pressure, while soybeans are nearly 13% higher and soyoil is up 31%, reflecting robust demand in the vegetable oil complex. Chinese agricultural futures for January 2026 are firmer in corn and soybeans, Malaysian palm oil has edged slightly lower to around 4,153 ringgit, and US open interest has surged in SRW, HRW and corn while retreating in soy, soymeal and soyoil, signalling fresh capital flowing into grains and some de-risking in oilseeds.

Underpinning much of the sentiment is a very comfortable US corn balance sheet highlighted by the latest US Grains & BioProducts Council harvest quality report. The council pegs the 2025–26 US corn crop at a record 425.53 million tons, with an all-time-high average yield of 186 bushels per acre and the lowest incidence of broken kernels and foreign material in the survey’s 15-year history, based on 621 samples from 12 major producing and exporting states. This combination of record size and exceptional quality reinforces the perception of abundant, export-ready US supply and sharpens the importance of trade policy, freight costs and currency moves in determining how aggressively US corn will compete in global markets this season.

Outside the United States, new crop estimates from Canada and a stable outlook in Ukraine are adding to global supply confidence, particularly in wheat and canola. A Bloomberg survey of analysts ahead of the Statistics Canada report points to 2025 Canadian wheat production of roughly 38 million tons, up 5.7% from last season, with estimates ranging from 36.8 to 38.9 million tons, and canola output near 21.3 million tons, up about 10.7% year on year. In Ukraine, 2026/27 wheat production is forecast at 22.8 million tons, unchanged from the previous update, with about 4.7 million hectares of winter wheat now sown under generally favorable conditions and improved soil moisture in most regions, even though parts of the east retain deficits. Seasonal outlooks calling for near-normal to slightly warmer temperatures and average precipitation into February reduce winterkill risk, though thin snow cover and localized dryness remain watch points.

Weather remains a central driver across key producing regions, with an intensifying cold air outbreak over the United States and mixed conditions in South America and the Black Sea. In the Northern Plains and Midwest, repeated fronts are reinforcing very cold air and bringing frequent snow, which may complicate logistics but helps rebuild soil moisture. Northern winter wheat areas are expected to see winterkill-level temperatures that should be mitigated by ample snow cover, while the Central and Southern Plains experience a succession of fronts that deliver occasional showers and cold shots before a brief warm-up next week. In the Delta, recent rains and heavy snow upstream have modestly raised Mississippi River levels, but a lack of significant precipitation in the forecast suggests water levels are likely to resume a slow decline, keeping barge freight and export flows in focus. Meanwhile, Europe continues to benefit from regular Atlantic systems that particularly aid Spain’s winter wheat, even as parts of southwestern Russia remain too dry despite improved precipitation in Ukraine and northwestern Russia.

South American weather remains especially important for beans and corn as Brazilian and Argentine crops move through early development. Central Brazil is still short on soil moisture after forecasts for better rains failed to fully verify, and although a stalled frontal system is expected to enhance rainfall over the region through the rest of the week, traders are waiting for confirmation that heavier totals actually materialize in the driest soybean zones, where some fields are already flowering. Further south in Brazil, soil moisture is currently adequate but a reduced frequency of rainfall has started a slow drying trend that could become more problematic if it persists for another couple of weeks. Argentina, by contrast, has seen scattered showers that were quite heavy in some areas over the weekend, followed by a return to dry weather for the rest of the week; another front is due to bring patchy showers this weekend into early next week, leaving developing corn and soybeans exposed to highly variable conditions from one region to another.

Trade flows centred on China are emerging as one of the week’s most important storylines, with US shipments finally accelerating and Russian exporters tightening their grip on key markets. After months of subdued activity tied to tariff tensions, at least six US soybean cargoes are scheduled to load at Gulf Coast terminals for China through mid-December, with a seventh vessel already en route in the first such movement since May. Chinese buyers booked nearly 2 million tons of US soybeans last month for the 2025/26 marketing year that runs through August 2026, and US sorghum exports to China have restarted for the first time since March, even if total Chinese purchases still lag far behind pre-trade-war levels. At the same time, China remains the leading destination for Russian agricultural exports in 2025, with shipments of frozen fish up 42%, rapeseed oil up 40% and peas almost doubling, while flows of sunflower oil and wheat into the Middle East and neighboring CIS markets have surged, underscoring a competitive and increasingly multipolar export environment for grains and oilseeds.

Domestic policy and sentiment in the United States, together with developments in the vegetable oil complex, round out the fundamental picture. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins signalled that the Trump administration will unveil a long-awaited farmer relief package next week, describing it as a bridge payment for producers hurt by low prices, shrinking safety-net programs and trade disruptions, while the Purdue University/CME Group agricultural sentiment index climbed to 139 in November, its highest level since June, driven by firmer crop prices and improved optimism on export prospects even as views on current conditions softened slightly. In parallel, a Reuters poll suggests Malaysian palm oil inventories jumped about 7.8% month on month in November to 2.66 million tons, the highest level since April 2019, as near-record crude palm oil output of 1.98 million tons and production hovering around 2 million tons for a second consecutive month met a sharp 14.9% drop in exports. That stock build is likely to remain a strong headwind for palm oil prices unless exports recover robustly, with implications for soyoil values, crush margins and global oilseed demand heading into early 2026.