The wheat complex extended its pullback on Thursday, with all three US exchanges closing lower as recent rallies met profit-taking and a generally comfortable global balance sheet. December 2025 CBOT SRW settled at $5.27 per bushel, down 9¾ cents on the day, while KC HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat also finished in the red. Strong weekly US export sales – including a private sale of white wheat to China and a marketing-year high in overall wheat bookings – were not enough to offset pressure from updated International Grains Council data showing higher world production and stable ending stocks, reinforcing the perception of ample global supply.

Corn futures also softened, though losses were modest. December 2025 CBOT corn closed at $4.26½ per bushel, down 3¼ cents, with the US cmdtyView national average cash corn price slipping to $3.88¼. A very strong weekly export sales figure for 2025/26, the largest so far this marketing year and well above last year’s comparable week, failed to ignite a rally as traders focused instead on the still-comfortable global balance sheet and only a marginal upward revision to world corn production and stocks in the latest IGC update. Demand signals remain constructive, including fresh Korean tender activity, but not yet tight enough to overcome broader bearish sentiment.

Soybean futures led the downside, pressured by long-awaited but now “priced-in” Chinese buying and competition from large South American supplies. January 2026 CBOT soybeans finished at $11.22½ per bushel, down 13¾ cents, while the US national average cash bean price fell to $10.49¼. Soymeal and soyoil also lost ground. Weekly US soybean export sales landed in the middle of expectations and above recent weeks, but still below last year, and International Grains Council figures trimming global production and cutting ending stocks to 77 million tons underlined how much the market is leaning on record Brazilian output. Additional USDA daily sales to China lifted total reported purchases this week to nearly 1.8 million tons, yet futures continued to “sell the fact” amid concerns that state-driven demand might not fully offset heavy South American competition.

Across the broader grain and oilseed complex, policy headlines and trade flows remained central drivers. In the US, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins signaled that the administration plans to unveil its long-promised farm relief package in the first week of December, after delays linked to the government shutdown. The program is aimed at providing income support to producers who have faced years of margin pressure, particularly row-crop farmers squeezed by high input costs, weak prices and trade disruptions. Export market losses during the trade war – especially in soybeans – have left many farm communities financially fragile, so details on payment levels and timing will be closely watched by both producers and grain markets.

China’s soybean import mix continues to reshape global trade flows. Customs data showed that in October China imported no US soybeans for the second consecutive month, compared with more than half a million tons a year earlier, as tariffs and the drawdown of old-crop US supplies pushed buyers toward South America. Brazilian arrivals surged nearly 29% to 7.12 million tons and accounted for about three-quarters of total imports, while volumes from Argentina also rose. Year-to-date, Brazil has consolidated its dominance with more than 70 million tons shipped to China, but the absence of US cargoes in recent months highlights how vulnerable American exporters remain to political and tariff developments, even as total Chinese imports hit a record for October.

At the same time, there are signs of a cautious thaw in US–China soybean trade following the leaders’ meeting in late October. State-owned COFCO has reportedly booked at least another 10 cargoes of US soybeans, pushing Chinese purchases of the current US crop above 2 million tons, and USDA’s daily reporting system confirmed several large sales this week. Washington claims Beijing has committed to buy at least 12 million tons of US soybeans this year and to increase annual purchases further over the next three years, though China has not officially confirmed the volume targets. Traders are weighing these political commitments against the reality of abundant Brazilian supply and the higher cost of US beans, creating ongoing uncertainty about the durability of this renewed demand.

South America remains the key fundamental anchor for soy and soy-product markets. In Brazil, consultancy Safras & Mercado trimmed its 2025/26 soybean production forecast slightly to 179 million tons but still projects a record crop on a larger planted area and solid yields. Total soybean supply for the 2026 season is expected to rise 6% to more than 184 million tons, with domestic crushing and exports both increasing and ending stocks more than doubling. Separate Safras projections for 2026 exports at 109 million tons, slightly above 2025 but below earlier estimates, reflect expectations that China may be more active in sourcing from the US harvest, even as Brazil remains the dominant supplier.

The soymeal trade is another bright spot for Brazil. Exporters’ association ANEC now sees November soymeal shipments at around 2.68 million tons, up sharply from last year and on track for a new monthly record. Strong export parity, driven by higher international soymeal prices and temporary US crushing downtime, is encouraging Brazilian crushers to push product into global markets. Year-to-date soymeal exports have already exceeded 20 million tons, and November soymeal volumes are expected to tighten domestic availability and support crush margins, even as soybean exports themselves ease seasonally but remain historically high for this time of year.

Looking further ahead, US acreage intentions for 2026 suggest a gradual rebalancing within the grain and oilseed complex. S&P Global projects that US farmers will cut corn planted area by about 3.8% next year while increasing soybean acreage by roughly 4%, with total wheat area also edging lower. The shift reflects relative profitability and risk perceptions: softer corn prices and stronger soy and product demand – especially with Brazil’s soymeal exports booming and China recalibrating its sourcing – appear to be nudging producers toward oilseeds. If realized, this acreage mix could modestly tighten the corn balance sheet over time while maintaining ample soybean supply, depending on yields and global demand.

In the Black Sea and broader Eurasian region, supply signals were mixed but overall pointed to continued abundance, especially in wheat and sunflower oil. A consensus forecast compiled by Russia’s Price Index Center now puts this year’s Russian grain harvest at around 137 million tons (or more than 138 million when new regions are included), including over 88–90 million tons of wheat, with only a slight decline expected in 2026. Sunflower seed output for this season has been revised lower but remains large, and Russia is believed to have already become the world’s leading sunflower oil exporter. Against that backdrop, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut described current Russian wheat export prices near $230 per ton as “balanced,” cautioning growers not to expect a return to the $300–$400 levels seen in past spikes unless major global disruptions occur – a message that effectively caps bullish expectations for a sustained price surge.

Energy and biofuel markets also fed back into oilseed sentiment. The latest US Department of Energy report showed ethanol stocks rising modestly to just over 22.3 million barrels, with plant production running in line with expectations, signaling steady but not explosive demand for corn-based biofuel. Meanwhile, a report that President Trump may delay curbs on biofuel import incentives weighed on shares of major biofuel-linked agribusinesses and contributed to pressure on soyoil futures, as traders reassessed the timing and strength of policy support for domestic renewable fuel use. In the vegetable oil space, palm oil analysts painted a cautiously bullish medium-term picture: Glenauk Economics expects Malaysian palm prices to climb toward 4,300–4,400 ringgit per ton in the first quarter of 2026 on stronger exports and potential biofuel demand from Indonesia, while the Malaysian Palm Oil Council sees prices potentially testing 4,500 ringgit ahead of Chinese New Year and Ramadan as monsoon-related harvest disruptions and a seasonal production lull tighten supplies.

Weather remained a critical underlying theme for grains and oilseeds. In North America, the outlook calls for continued warmth across the US over the next 10 days but with moderate to heavy precipitation episodes in the central belt, supporting soil moisture yet also narrowing the window for remaining fieldwork. A strong cold front expected early next week should push temperatures sharply lower into December, particularly across the Northern Plains and Midwest, hastening winter wheat dormancy and beginning to freeze soils. The Central and Southern Plains are set for successive storm systems that should deliver much-needed rainfall to winter wheat areas before the arrival of colder Arctic air, while persistent low water levels on the Mississippi River continue to challenge grain logistics in the Delta despite upcoming rainfall.

In South America, weather patterns are diverging between key production zones. Argentina’s Pampas region currently enjoys high soil moisture after earlier rains, but forecasts now point to a gradually drier pattern with only patchy showers from passing fronts, raising the risk that conditions could turn less favorable if meaningful precipitation does not resume in the coming weeks. In Brazil, a stalled frontal system has concentrated heavier rains in central and northern areas, while southern Brazil faces lighter, less frequent showers; if this persists into December, it could stress corn and soybean crops just as they enter critical development phases. Elsewhere, recent abundant rainfall has kept Paraguay’s corn in good condition, though projected deficits over the next couple of weeks hint at the possibility of emerging dryness later in the season if the pattern persists.

Across Europe and the Black Sea, cooler temperatures and scattered showers – some falling as snow from Austria into southern Poland – are nudging winter crops toward dormancy, with soil moisture generally adequate but parts of southwestern Russia still grappling with concerning dryness for winter wheat. In Asia, near-normal to cooler temperatures are expected across much of the region, with above-normal rainfall in southern India, South Korea, Japan and portions of Southeast Asia, conditions that will shape planting and early development for regional grain and oilseed crops and thus form another layer of influence on global supply expectations.