Chicago opens the week firmer across the grain complex after last week’s slide, with early gains led by soybeans as traders re-price South America weather risk and watch vegetable-oil cross-currents into a new data-heavy Monday.

Early tone is supportive despite the prior week’s declines in wheat, corn, and soybeans, a setup consistent with fresh month-start positioning and a market that is quickly re-centering on weather and demand updates. Open interest rose notably into Jan. 2 across corn, wheat, and products, which can amplify headline-driven swings as participation rebuilds post-holiday.

South America is the main pricing lever again, with the risk map turning less forgiving for key Brazilian crop zones. The outlook calls for dry weather becoming persistent over Central-West Brazil with heat risks arriving soon, a negative setup as pod-setting accelerates and January rainfall becomes critical for yield stabilization. That keeps soybeans and soymeal sensitive to forecast shifts, while corn adds risk premium if safrinha planning begins under moisture stress.

Argentina remains the second major weather focus, with the Pampas flagged as persistently dry through mid-January in an unfavorable outlook for corn and soybeans. Northern Argentina has seen better recent rainfall and additional fronts this week are expected to favor the north again, but the central/southern dryness keeps the market paying for downside yield risk if soil moisture continues to erode.

Paraguay’s outlook is the more constructive counterweight, with cool and wet conditions over the next 1–2 weeks supporting corn/soy development and slightly tempering the regional stress narrative. Even so, the market tends to price the marginal risk zones first, leaving soybeans and corn more “risk-sensitive” than wheat when Argentina and Central-West Brazil are the stress points.

In the U.S., winter wheat risk is more about volatility than immediate damage. Warmer-than-normal Plains temperatures have reduced winter hardiness, raising sensitivity to the next meaningful cold shot; snow later this week may offer short-term protection, but longer-horizon winterkill risk stays on the radar if hard freezes return without cover. Midwest systems later this week could bring significant snow and brief transport issues, while low Mississippi River levels remain a logistics watchpoint until meaningful rain arrives.

Demand visibility shifts back to export statistics today, with USDA export sales due for the week of Dec. 25 across wheat, corn, soybeans, meal, and oil. Separately, USDA confirmed a 132,000-ton U.S. corn sale to South Korea for 2025/26, adding a supportive demand headline for corn into the week.

Domestic U.S. usage signals were mixed-to-supportive. USDA’s oilseed update pegged November soybean crush at 220.5 mbu, while soybean oil stocks were tallied at 2.16 billion lbs (up sharply year-on-year), a combination that can swing the soybean complex through meal/oil spreads. Corn used for ethanol was reported at 471.9 mbu in November, a steady consumption signal that helps underpin corn on breaks when export demand is also active.

Vegetable-oil markets add the day’s cross-current. India’s December palm imports fell to an eight-month low while soyoil and sunflower imports rose, a mix that can weigh palm pricing but lend relative support to soyoil; at the same time, Indonesia reported higher Jan–Nov palm export volume year-on-year, and Malaysia’s palm inventories are seen near a seven-year high, which can cap veg-oil-led rallies if stocks stay heavy. These offsets keep soybeans supported mainly by weather and demand rather than a clean, one-way veg-oil tailwind.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is at $5.06 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents early Monday. Wheat is stabilizing after last week’s decline as traders watch Plains winter risk and await export sales, with weather and flow data likely to set the near-term tone.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn is at $4.37 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents early. Corn is leaning on steady ethanol usage, the reported 132,000-ton sale to South Korea, and the day’s export-sales expectations, while Argentina dryness keeps a weather premium in the background.

Soybeans: Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans are at $10.29 1/2, up 10 1/2 cents early. Gains are tied to rising heat/dryness risk in Central-West Brazil and persistent dryness in Argentina’s Pampas, while crush and veg-oil signals remain the key spread drivers into today’s export-sales data.