Early Tuesday trade is modestly firmer across most contracts, with corn and soybeans trying to stabilize after Monday’s setback and winter wheat mixed by class, as markets balance demand visibility against South America weather risk and thin, late-December liquidity.

China put grain and edible oil security back in the spotlight after its Central Rural Work Conference (Dec. 29–30), with state media reporting renewed emphasis on stabilizing grain/oil production, improving varieties and quality, expanding diversified food supply capacity, and advancing “high-standard farmland” planning. The messaging reinforces China’s longer-run self-sufficiency push, a backdrop that can shape import expectations and sentiment across soybeans, meal, and feed grains even when near-term flows dominate.

Export inspections are the most immediate demand input today. For the week ending Dec. 25, USDA inspections showed 1.301m tons of corn, 750k tons of soybeans, and 302k tons of wheat shipped, with corn still notably above the same week last year, while wheat and soybeans ran well below last year’s pace for the week. The mix keeps corn demand looking comparatively resilient, while soy and wheat continue to trade a more uneven shipment story into the turn of the calendar.

North Africa demand headlines add another layer for feed grains. Algeria’s agriculture ministry said the country plans to import 1.15m tons of feed corn through February to address a domestic shortage and will begin building a national inventory, with first cargoes totaling 250,000 tons expected by Jan. 1. That supports the broader export-demand narrative for corn even as holiday-week logistics distort weekly flow data.

Black Sea policy and logistics remain a steady undercurrent. Russia set the 2026 wheat export quota from Crimea and Sevastopol at 400,000 tonnes and introduced a 150,000-tonne quota for barley exports from the region, alongside export-duty and allocation procedures, keeping government controls in focus for regional grain movement. Those measures can influence nearby trade patterns and risk premium, especially when combined with broader geopolitical sensitivity.

Weather remains the core “repricing lever,” with South America the most market-sensitive map. The daily outlook flags Pampas conditions as cooler with below-normal rainfall, while Brazil stays wet with warmer temperatures, and broader guidance warns that dryness is expected to expand across Argentine crop areas in January, with drought risk potentially rising by mid-month. For corn and soybeans, the Argentina signal is the key support risk if forecasts verify, while improving Brazil rainfall coverage is a counterweight that can cap rallies.

In the U.S., winter weather and logistics are adding background noise rather than direct supply impact, but traders are watching transport constraints. A major Midwest system is producing strong winds, heavy snow and blizzard conditions in parts of the northern belt, while the Delta/Mississippi River story remains a concern as limited precipitation into January is flagged as negative for river transportation. In the Plains, very limited forecast precipitation and warming that can “awaken” winter wheat are highlighted as potential issues for winter hardiness when colder air returns later.

Vegetable oils and positioning are additional cross-currents. Malaysian palm is firmer overnight and soyoil is slightly higher early, while open interest changes show corn adding contracts and soybeans/products shedding positions into Monday, consistent with year-end and first-notice dynamics in beans. That mix can amplify headline reactions and keep soybean spreads sensitive even when outright prices look steady.

Outside of pure supply-demand, Brazil’s domestic wheat narrative and a major sustainability-policy headline in soy are worth monitoring. CEPEA noted Brazil’s 2025 wheat planted area fell sharply again, while domestic prices declined across much of 2025 as global supply pressure, stocks, and a stronger real increased imported-wheat competitiveness. Separately, Reuters reported major soybean traders are preparing to exit Brazil’s Amazon Soy Moratorium to preserve Mato Grosso tax incentives, a development that can become a longer-run market and policy issue even if it is not an immediate futures driver today.

Wheat: SRW is up 1 cent early, HRW is down 1/2 cent, and HRS is unchanged. March ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.13, down 6 cents, and is up 1 3/4 cents this morning as the market weighs a lighter holiday-week shipment print against larger year-to-date export totals and ongoing Plains dryness concerns.

Corn: Corn is up 1/4 cent early. March ’26 CBOT corn closed at $4.42 1/4, down 7 3/4 cents, and is up 1/2 cent this morning, with focus on the still-strong year-on-year inspections pace and Algeria’s import program headline, while Argentina January dryness remains the key weather-support variable.

Soybeans: Soybeans are up 4 cents early, with soymeal higher and soyoil fractionally firmer. January ’26 CBOT soybeans closed at $10.49 1/2, down 9 1/4 cents, and are up 3 1/2 cents this morning as the market balances a private 100,000 MT U.S. sale to Egypt and today’s inspections data against weaker year-on-year shipment pace and renewed U.S.–China political tension.