Wednesday’s pre-Christmas session ended broadly higher across the grain complex, with wheat and corn finishing modestly firmer and soybeans posting the strongest advance as traders balanced supportive export metrics, South America weather risk, and renewed Black Sea security headlines in holiday-thin liquidity.

Export demand visibility remained a core underpin. USDA export inspections for the week ending Dec. 18 showed corn at 1.744m tons and wheat at 627k tons—both up from the prior week—while soybean inspections improved to 870k tons but stayed far below the same week last year, keeping the soybean demand narrative more mixed beneath the rally.

Weekly export sales positioning also stayed in focus after the delayed Dec. 4 sales report: China was the top soybean buyer with 1.01m tons, while Mexico led corn purchases with 665k tons. The market treated the “catch-up” flow as supportive for the demand backdrop even as attention remains on how consistent sales and shipments stay through year-end.

Soybeans also had a headline boost from USDA’s reported 396,000 tons of export sales to China, split between the 2025/26 and 2026/27 marketing years. That news helped keep the complex firm into the break, especially alongside strength in soymeal and soyoil during the session.

South America weather remained the most important pricing lever. The outlook emphasized rising flood and excess-moisture risk in the northern Argentinian Pampas from heavy rains, while the Southern Pampas trend drier during a crucial development stage for corn and soybeans—a split that can translate into localized losses in the north and yield-risk premium in the south.

Brazil’s forecast was broadly constructive but uneven. A stalled front in the south is expected to deliver widespread beneficial rainfall, and central areas should see scattered showers that support soybeans moving into pod-fill, while parts of São Paulo and Minas Gerais are flagged for much less precipitation alongside very hot temperatures when it is not raining—an early watchpoint for regional stress pockets.

Black Sea security risk stayed on traders’ radar after reports that facilities and a civilian vessel were damaged in a Russian drone attack on Ukraine’s port of Odesa, including a ship transporting Ukrainian soybeans. Even without reported casualties, port and infrastructure risk can add near-term premium, most directly to wheat, by raising uncertainty around export flow reliability.

On longer-horizon supply signals, Russia remained a key swing factor. Sovecon said Russia is gradually sowing less wheat due to falling margins linked to floating export taxes and projected a 2026 Russian wheat harvest of 83.8m tons, while officials reiterated a 53m–55m ton grain export plan; separate commentary highlighted ongoing cold risks in parts of southwest Russia in January, with snow cover expected to temper winterkill risk.

Global demand headlines added texture to wheat sentiment, including Egypt’s state buyer purchasing another 700,000 tons of wheat for Jan–Feb shipment from a mix of origins. In the background, positioning signals pointed to thinner participation amplifying moves, with preliminary open interest down notably in soybeans and lower across corn and wheat as well.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.21 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents. Gains tracked steady export-demand signals and persistent Black Sea risk, while ongoing winter risk monitoring in Russia and global buying headlines helped keep wheat supported into the holiday close.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn closed at $4.51, up 3 1/2 cents. The market leaned on strong U.S. inspection flow and firm export commitment data, while Argentina’s two-sided weather map kept traders attentive to how yield risk evolves into late December.

Soybeans: Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans closed at $10.63 1/4, up 11 3/4 cents. Strength was supported by the reported U.S. sale to China and broad product-market firmness, even as the inspection pace versus last year and larger Brazil supply expectations remain key constraints traders continue to weigh.