Early Wednesday trade is positive across most of the grain complex, with wheat and corn modestly higher and soybeans posting stronger gains as markets price in weather risk in South America, watch Black Sea security headlines, and lean on fresh U.S. export flow data during holiday-thin liquidity and an early close ahead of Christmas.

Overnight quotes show a broadly supportive tone: wheat is up across SRW and HRW, corn is higher, and soybeans are firmer, with soymeal up while soyoil is slightly lower. With the session shortened and markets closed Thursday, headline sensitivity is elevated and price moves can overshoot as participation thins.

South America weather remains the dominant risk lever, and the map is split in a way that can drive two-way volatility. Heavy rain is forecast for the northern Argentinian Pampas, lifting flooding and excess-moisture risk, while the Southern Pampas are expected to slide into a prolonged dry trend during a key development window for corn and soybeans—an unusual combination that can create localized losses in the north and yield risk in the south.

Brazil’s forecast is largely constructive for crop development but still uneven enough to keep traders focused on regional stress pockets. A front stalled in the south is expected to deliver widespread, beneficial rainfall, and central Brazil should see scattered showers that boost soil moisture as soybeans move into pod-fill, but parts of São Paulo and Minas Gerais may receive much less precipitation alongside very hot temperatures when it is not raining.

Geopolitical risk returned to the front of the tape after facilities and a civilian vessel were damaged in a Russian drone attack on Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa, including a ship transporting Ukrainian soybeans. Any perceived threat to ports and loading infrastructure tends to add a near-term risk premium—most directly supportive for wheat—while also keeping regional oilseed flows under scrutiny.

Demand-side visibility is supported by the latest U.S. export inspections update, which remains a key anchor in a week where scheduled reports have been disrupted. For the week ending Dec. 18, the U.S. inspected 1.744m tons of corn and 627k tons of wheat for export, both above the prior week, while soybean inspections improved to 870k tons but remained far below the same week last year, keeping soy demand narratives mixed despite better near-term flow.

USDA also reported 396,000 tons of soybean export sales to China, split between the 2025/26 and 2026/27 marketing years. That headline supports soybeans early, but the broader soybean tone still has to contend with larger South America supply expectations and the complex’s sensitivity to vegetable oil moves.

On the supply narrative, Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean outlook was raised by AgRural to 180.4 MMT, reinforcing the “big Brazil” backdrop even as harvest is only starting in a few areas and is not expected to advance meaningfully before January. In wheat, Russia remains a swing factor: Sovecon highlighted declining wheat margins tied to export taxes and projected a smaller 2026 Russian wheat harvest of 83.8 MMT, while officials reiterated a 53–55m ton grain export plan and pointed to slightly higher Middle East wheat exports season-to-date.

Vegetable oil and biofuel signals add another cross-current into the shortened session. Malaysia palm was higher overnight, Indonesia set a 2026 biodiesel quota similar to this year’s and is testing higher blending rates, and the timing of U.S. energy data is shifted due to the holiday schedule—factors that can swing soyoil and, by extension, soybean spreads when liquidity is thin.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is at $5.24 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents early Wednesday. Support is coming from renewed Black Sea risk after the Odesa attack and a constructive export backdrop, while ongoing January cold-risk commentary for parts of southwest Russia keeps winter wheat vulnerability on the radar.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn is at $4.50, up 2 1/2 cents. The market is balancing strong U.S. export inspection flow with Argentina’s split weather setup—flood risk in the north versus a drier trend in the south—during a key development window that can quickly reprice yield risk.

Soybeans: Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans are at $10.61 3/4, up 10 1/4 cents early. Gains are supported by the reported 396,000-ton U.S. sale to China and firmer soymeal, while traders still weigh AgRural’s higher Brazil production estimate and the day’s mixed veg-oil tone into a holiday-short session.