From December 29, 2025 to January 2, 2026, grain markets moved through thin year-end trade with Black Sea risk and South America weather doing most of the heavy lifting, while policy headlines added “headline-to-headline” volatility.

Holiday liquidity amplified reactions to geopolitics and South American forecasts, leaving wheat relatively supported versus a softer soy complex by week’s end.

In the last few days, U.S.–Venezuela tensions escalated sharply after U.S. forces captured Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro in a military operation, while Washington’s pressure campaign has included oil-sector sanctions and a blockade/seizures that Reuters said cut Venezuela’s exports roughly in half versus November levels. For the oil market, the immediate channel is supply and shipping risk: fewer Venezuelan barrels (especially heavy crude) and higher maritime risk premia can lift crude prices and distillate margins. That can spill into grains by (1) raising diesel and freight costs, (2) supporting biofuels/veg-oil values (soyoil → soy complex), and (3) increasing fertilizer/feedstock costs—often adding a macro “floor” under corn/soy when energy rallies, while a sudden de-escalation that restores flows would tend to do the opposite.

Black Sea geopolitics stayed the key “risk switch.” Talk of a potential Trump–Zelensky meeting and broader peace-discussion expectations briefly pressured wheat’s war premium, but the market still treated the region as unresolved risk rather than a clean de-escalation signal.

Russia supply remained the structural cap on rallies. Rosstat’s updated view pegged Russia’s 2025 wheat harvest at 91.4 MMT (total grain 139.4 MMT), reinforcing the idea that exporter availability stays heavy even as traders watch policy/flow shifts.

Policy and logistics out of the Black Sea added nuance: Russia outlined regional export quotas (including wheat from Crimea/Sevastopol and a barley quota) alongside procedures tied to export duties and allocations—another reminder that “how grain moves” can matter as much as “how much grain exists.”

Demand signals were mixed but market-relevant. U.S. export inspections (week ending Dec. 25) showed corn inspections running ahead of the prior week while soybeans and wheat cooled, feeding the corn demand narrative even as wheat stayed export-competitive sensitive.

On the import side, Algeria’s plans to bring in 1.15 MMT of feed corn through February (with additional monthly flows expected later) kept attention on North African demand and global feed grain trade routes.

China headlines leaned supportive in tone but light on immediate “new demand.” The Central Rural Work Conference emphasized grain and oil security and higher production capacity (including focus on soy/corn yields and high-standard farmland), reinforcing long-run self-sufficiency direction rather than a near-term import surge.

South America was the other major lever. Forecast-driven tightening in Argentina mattered: LSEG trimmed estimates (including Argentina soy and corn), pointing to a drier 30-day outlook in key areas—enough to keep weather premium alive in both corn and meal-led soy trade.

Policy headlines in the Americas added another layer. Argentina announced export-tax cuts (soybeans and products, plus wheat/corn) but the market also noted execution frictions (selling pace and timing). Meanwhile in Brazil, debate around the Amazon Soy Moratorium stayed in focus, with a push toward an April vote that could complicate EU deforestation-regulation compliance questions for supply chains.

U.S. domestic fundamentals rounded out the week: USDA “Farm Bridge” details and broader balance-sheet framing mattered alongside a softer export outlook (FY2025 exports forecast down versus FY2024) and steady crush themes (NOPA crush 206.604 mbu for November, with updated product stock figures).

Wheat ended the week still carrying a measurable Black Sea premium. Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.06 1/4/bu, down 1 1/2 cents on the week.

Corn trade stayed demand-anchored even through choppy macro and holiday flow. Mar ’26 CBOT corn closed at $4.42/bu, down 2 1/2 cents on the week, with export-inspections data helping keep downside more orderly than wheat’s headline swings.

Soybeans were the laggard as early optimism faded and the complex took cues from meal and crush data. Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans closed at $10.31 3/4/bu, down 14 1/2 cents on the week, while South America weather and policy/supply-chain signals stayed in the foreground.